ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#281 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:09 pm

18Z Gfs rolls in less than 30 minutes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#282 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:13 pm

12Z NASA model going with development:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#283 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z NASA model going with development:

Image


Gatorcane, Is that link available?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#284 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:15 pm

NASA model link:
http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_w ... 00&&loop=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#285 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:16 pm


Link is broken.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#286 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:18 pm

Link is broken.


The link is working for me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#287 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:20 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:

Link is broken.


Try copying and pasting the link into your browser's address bar.
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:22 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#288 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:20 pm

"bad bad_referer"
EDIT: Thanks Austin! Your solution worked! :D
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#289 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:23 pm

Looks like the 12z Euro ensembles have a few members showing a strong TC off the SE coast, roughly same areas as the GFS ensembles were showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#290 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:47 pm

So far the 18z GFS a mirror image of previous runs. No development through 54 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#291 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:55 pm

72 hours, very similar to the 12z run with position/strength so far:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#292 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:56 pm

tolakram wrote:So far the 18z GFS a mirror image of previous runs. No development through 54 hours.


Judging by the looks of 99L, gonna be at least 48 hrs before it looks anything like a TC. Getting dried up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#293 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:00 pm

My gut tells me the GFS is going to take it even further west this run. Perhaps a Caribbean Cruiser.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#294 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:02 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:My gut tells me the GFS is going to take it even further west this run. Perhaps a Caribbean Cruiser.


I was thinking this run is going to be north of the 12z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#295 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:04 pm

So far it's ever so slightly north and more robust in developing a wave behind this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#296 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:05 pm

Not gaining much latitude through 108 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#297 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:06 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Not gaining much latitude through 108 hours.


it wasn't before. Be sure to use the previous run feature (arrows near the bottom) to compare runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#298 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Not gaining much latitude through 108 hours.


it wasn't before. Be sure to use the previous run feature (arrows near the bottom) to compare runs.


Valid point...thanks for pointing out that feature. Never noticed it before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#299 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Not gaining much latitude through 108 hours.


it wasn't before. Be sure to use the previous run feature (arrows near the bottom) to compare runs.


The most significant difference I see thus far is the forward speed - 18Z run is faster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#300 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:11 pm

18Z seems to be north of and faster then the 12z run, showing impact in the central Leeward Islands in 114 hours
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