ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Ok, just looked at the latest NHC outlook and they increased it to 30-60%. However, they claim that hostile wind shear is still over the system. Did they look at the latest shear maps or is there something we're missing?

It's still being sheared when you look at a satellite image. Remember those shear maps are derived not measured. Trust observations first.

Thank you, I will. Though despite the shear it's encountering, still looks better than it has been.

[Frank2]

Could be a diurnal maximum (note the tops have warmed again later in this loop):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

P.S. The good news is the dry slot to the north of the Bahamas that is sagging quickly southward. This is a good loop to view, because it shows clearly the shear (both from the south and to the west from the north)...

[ronjon]

I don't see anything in the visibles to suggest there is much of a low level circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

Broad low pressure system - needs more convection and shear lessening to further develop. But movement is extremely slow - another 48 hours to S FL.

[RL3AO]

This is the area I'm watching this afternoon.

[SoupBone]

I don't see anything in the visibles to suggest there is much of a low level circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

I think people tend to forget that while most of Cuba is a low elevation, this section is not. This area has some very high treacherous and mountainous terrain.

[JaxGator]

Could be a diurnal maximum (note the tops have warmed again later in this loop):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

P.S. The good news is the dry slot to the north of the Bahamas that is sagging quickly southward...

The only clouds I see going south are the ones over Florida. The dry air (to me anyway) looks to be going towards WNW towards Florida with more storms firing within it. The other dry air not in the loop is farther north.

[chaser1]

I'm finding it hard to trust the upper air charts but if the 12 hr. forecast is to be beleived than it would'nt surprise me to see a very big ramp up in overall convective activity later this evening. Still, w'ere not dealing with a vertically stacked storm nor are we dealing with a very small system either so a "fast spin up" just seems unreasonable. On the other hand IF we begin to see signs of increased organization tonight, than I dont think it unreasonable for a depression to form in a period of approx. 48 hrs or so. Based on present motion and short term forecasts, that "could" then introduce quickly deteriorating conditions for W. Cuba, the Keys, and extreme S. Florida. Fortunately, it doesnt seem reasonable for any serious threat to impact S. Fla. prior to 99L eventually moving further away.

[SoupBone]

I don't see anything in the visibles to suggest there is much of a low level circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

I think people tend to forget that while most of Cuba is a low elevation, this section is not. This area has some very high treacherous and mountainous terrain.

http://i67.tinypic.com/15x2yps.png

Just to add to my posts, the yellow areas are 2000+ feet high and the orange areas are 5000+ feet high. No it's not Hispaniola, but it can definitely have an effect on systems in its own right.

[CrazyC83]

I'm finding it hard to trust the upper air charts but if the 12 hr. forecast is to be beleived than it would'nt surprise me to see a very big ramp up in overall convective activity later this evening. Still, w'ere not dealing with a vertically stacked storm nor are we dealing with a very small system either so a "fast spin up" just seems unreasonable. On the other hand IF we begin to see signs of increased organization tonight, than I dont think it unreasonable for a depression to form in a period of approx. 48 hrs or so. Based on present motion and short term forecasts, that "could" then introduce quickly deteriorating conditions for W. Cuba, the Keys, and extreme S. Florida. Fortunately, it doesnt seem reasonable for any serious threat to impact S. Fla. prior to 99L eventually moving further away.

99L seems to be a slow mover too and will continue to be such. It looks like it will take 5 days just to get to the eastern Gulf.

[Blow_Hard]

I'm finding it hard to trust the upper air charts but if the 12 hr. forecast is to be beleived than it would'nt surprise me to see a very big ramp up in overall convective activity later this evening. Still, w'ere not dealing with a vertically stacked storm nor are we dealing with a very small system either so a "fast spin up" just seems unreasonable. On the other hand IF we begin to see signs of increased organization tonight, than I dont think it unreasonable for a depression to form in a period of approx. 48 hrs or so. Based on present motion and short term forecasts, that "could" then introduce quickly deteriorating conditions for W. Cuba, the Keys, and extreme S. Florida. Fortunately, it doesnt seem reasonable for any serious threat to impact S. Fla. prior to 99L eventually moving further away.

99L seems to be a slow mover too and will continue to be such. It looks like it will take 5 days just to get to the eastern Gulf.

This isn't unexpected. I believe the forecast always called for it slow down as it approached the Bahamas.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, now the GFS and ECMWF both agree on track and intensity and it is very weak. Hard to ignore.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that invest 99L can be a depression today and what should we expect for Miami and Boca Raton this weekend.

[wxman57]

Not even remotely close to a TD this afternoon. Just an area of squalls lacking a well-defined circulation at present. It's a day or two away from possibly becoming a TD. Looks more promising than it did yesterday, but that wouldn't be too hard. Models remain quite divergent on a solution. 12Z Euro is no big help.

[AutoPenalti]

Does anyone think that invest 99L can be a depression today and what should we expect for Miami and Boca Raton this weekend.

No, not today. Nothing much, just some outer bands.

[Tireman4]

Not even remotely close to a TD this afternoon. Just an area of squalls lacking a well-defined circulation at present. It's a day or two away from possibly becoming a TD. Looks more promising than it did yesterday, but that wouldn't be too hard. Models remain quite divergent on a solution. 12Z Euro is no big help.

Yep. Yep. Agreed. I was thinking 48 hours, but you are the man taking on the disturbance...

[Hammy]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

[rickybobby]

Got a text from ucf saying they are monitoring the storm.

[TropicalSailor]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

You may want to review some previous posts where others took your path of calling this thing dead and see what happened to them. This horse is alive and kicking right up until it isn't.

[Siker]

So I lose internet for two days (lightning through the modem) and come back expecting maybe this got upgraded, only to find it looking worse than it did with essentially no model support now. Not to beat a dead horse but this is highly unlikely to develop and I'm quite surprised NHC is keeping the chances above 60% at this point.

Wonder what you would've said if you saw it yesterday LOL.

[StormHunter72]

looks better than it ever has.