ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2821 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:56 am

holy crap.. the euro has that moving 15 + mph for the next 24hrs.. hmm a little suspect
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2822 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:57 am



I really don't think it would get over Lake O if it is gonna get that far West it would be further South and continue into the GoM. I don't see it staying that far East, And no I'm not -removed- for my state to get hit, just don't see it happening with that ridge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2823 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:00 am

Ridge in the seus looks stronger at initialization at 1025 at least onshore. 12z showed 1020.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2824 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:01 am

0Z Euro stronger and further north east at 48 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2016082500&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=199
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2825 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:01 am

00z Euro @ hour 48:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2826 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:02 am

back to the runs from 2 days ago. with big west bend? which made way more sense than the run from the last 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2827 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:09 am

00z Euro @ hr 72:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2828 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:10 am

Trend Gif:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2829 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:10 am

Stronger than 12z for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2830 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:14 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Stronger than 12z for sure.


But more east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2831 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:14 am

Kingarabian wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Stronger than 12z for sure.


But more east.

slower at the very least.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2832 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:15 am

And, bullseye on Miami on the next
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2833 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:17 am

00z Euro @ 96hrs:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2834 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:17 am

So, it slows down some and then makes its left hand turn as previous runs had shown.. just a tad sooner? I had thought that a couple of its earlier runs was having that turn perhaps 50 or so miles further north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2835 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:17 am

looking at the ridging.. looks like panhandle again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2836 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:19 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Can someone please post the 0Z UKMET


Here you go:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144[/quote

By the way, did anyone notice that the UK pretty much stalls out the storm over Andros Island for I believe a couple of days?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2837 Postby fci » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:22 am

If I'm reading correctly it comes ashore in SE Florida but as a TS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2838 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:23 am

fci wrote:If I'm reading correctly it comes ashore in SE Florida but as a TS?


Yeah and exists Florida with 994mb. Now let's see what is in store in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2839 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:23 am

00z Euro @ hour 120
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2840 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:24 am

The Euro has been pretty consistant. 96hr. from last night's 0Z had the same 998mb while sitting over Andros Island, then down to 992mb at 120 hr. off the coast of SW Florida moving away
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