ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 1h1 hour ago
99L still has a robust wave signature. SSW winds of 20kt is a healthy sign. Means development still possible later.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqzZQEXWgAAtIih.jpg

[chaser1]

I just realized a 99L is also interacting with a ULL between it and Florida - not sure if the ULL is weakening or strengthening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Hard to tell but there's no doubt that right now, 99L looks like it could use some viagra if relying on its own convection to push back against that shear

[HurriGuy]

Sheer is still greatly receding according to latest sheer tendency map. But as pointed out, I don't know how reliable it is

[HurriGuy]

[SeGaBob]

It looks like the convection is hardly moving west... looks like strong westerly wind shear.

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to disorganize a little bit, those mountains are really hurting it.

[HurriGuy]

Lower convergence hasn't improved, though. Here is the latest.



Here is 3 hours ago

[jlauderdal]

Storms seem to have waned the last couple of frames...still a lot better than yesterday though.

nighttime is prime time for 99l..lets see

[SeGaBob]

Storms seem to have waned the last couple of frames...still a lot better than yesterday though.

nighttime is prime time for 99l..lets see

Yes I agree

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storms already falling apart it just cannot keep convection. Maybe things will change but I personally doubt it. Shear will find a way to pop back up on top of the storm in the future. It is a fighter but knowing the GFS and ECMWF keep it weak is a good sign.

[Aric Dunn]

Storms already falling apart it just cannot keep convection. Maybe things will change but I personally doubt it. Shear will find a way to pop back up on top of the storm in the future. It is a fighter but knowing the GFS and ECMWF keep it weak is a good sign.

on the contrary convection is still refining. besides the coming and going of convection is quite normal at this stage.

[HurriGuy]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

[HurriGuy]

I am not begging for a storm to form. I am just trying to reasonable of what we have. Still a tropical wave till the last thunderstorm fizzles out.

[terstorm1012]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

please keep pointing this out. People are actually seeming to get upset about this storm not forming. So far, I think the models have done well with this disturbance. Tonight and Tomorrow will tell. If nothing comes out of this by tomorrow night, then I say probably won't develop.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

Seems to me that the low level vorticity is just about stationary under the blob and the MLC is making progress closing the gap.

[GCANE]

This has been popping quite a few hot towers earlier today and a couple spordic ones just within the last hour or two.
Albeit, surface pressures are high, it will be moving into a developing theta-e ridge to it's NW which will maintain or strengthen convection.
Once the Upper-Level Low to the east grabs a hold of the outflow, it will be very interesting.
Watching the buoys for a sudden drop in pressure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

Seems to me that the low level vorticity is just about stationary under the blob and the MLC is making progress closing the gap.

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/769260442338332673

[bamajammer4eva]

IR image of 99L at 1732 vs 1938. Maintaing itself quite well

[fci]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

please keep pointing this out. People are actually seeming to get upset about this storm not forming. So far, I think the models have done well with this disturbance. Tonight and Tomorrow will tell. If nothing comes out of this by tomorrow night, then I say probably won't develop.

Wow, "models have done well"......
Look back to the Models at the beginning of the week and the beginning of the week (you can see them over there in the Models Forum) and maybe rethink that conclusion.
We were looking at models showing a named system in the Central Bahamas TODAY.
Thus the very high percentages put out by the NHC earlier in the week.
Not their fault that the models have performed poorly on 99L. They are only "models" and a huge input to forecasting.
According to the Models I should be planning putting up my god-awful shutters tomorrow.
Happily it appears all I should get is MAYBE some enhanced rainfall and I seriously doubt I will see even that.
But I'll remain vigilant until the threat (as small as it is) is gone.

[Sanibel]

Yet the vortex is looking spent.