ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

One more note: There is going to be a lot of evolving of the lows and highs in the mid and upper levels. If any of the features starts to not align with the models, then it will set off a chain reaction.

An example of this is that the UKMET keeps showing more pronounced development of 99L once in the Gulf because it has a more defined upper level high over the eastern Gulf/west Florida and continues to let it get stronger. That is a great environment for 99L protecting it from the upper lows surrounding it IF the vorticity is in the correct position.

The ECMWF does not show the upper high as far east as the UKMET does. All of these small movements could make a big deal in the long term

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I feel the need to point out, that even a day or 2 ago, majority of the models did not have any formation till Saturday. All of the models including the HWRF had this severe lag of the mid-level circulation behind the lower level circulation. They weren't supposed to align until it got closer to Florida. Now I know the ECMWF and GFS aren't showing much of anything, but this is a very complex situation. We were never suppose to see evidence of true formation until tomorrow anyway. Let's take a step back.

Seems to me that the low level vorticity is just about stationary under the blob and the MLC is making progress closing the gap.

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/769260442338332673

The system as a whole simply is not moving. This apparent on WV>

[HurriGuy]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet ... 2_0250.gif

Here is a shot at hour 72 of most recent UKMET run in 250-wind. Notice the high in the Gulf. Notice the impeding low over the Carolina's. Ecmwf has that same low off the coast of the Carolinas and more to the south.

[Aric Dunn]

being that center is somewhere in the black circle like more to the right side and little broad but could be more defined than we think. the ship orange sun reporting
WSW winds( which is what it should be in that location) pressure of 1011mb quite a good distance from the center.

[HurriGuy]

The mid-level circulation is really evident now north of Hispaniola. I see zero signs of the old mid-level south of the mountains and to be honest it looks more and more that low-level and mid-level are getting close. Notice how that eddy has really fizzled away, but the broad low level circulation still appears evident. This is completely different situation than yesterday eve.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The mid-level circulation is really evident now north of Hispaniola. I see zero signs of the old mid-level south of the mountains and to be honest it looks more and more that low-level and mid-level are getting close. Notice how that eddy has really fizzled away, but the broad low level circulation still appears evident. This is completely different situation than yesterday eve.

They are coming together IMO and the systems is basically stationary while this is happening. Could be dangerous.

[Nimbus]

ARIC this system has had a broad circulation at the surface for a long time which explains the ship report. Question is whether there is a LLC that is spinning faster in the center of the area you circled? If its just spinning slowly at the center like a skater with her arms outstretched from her side there won't be any pressure gradient to draw inflow.

Might be a slow process and will require some good convective bursts.

[alienstorm]

Here is the latest with some wind observations still broad but definitly not dead, and movement has been very slow today.

[Aric Dunn]

ARIC this system has had a broad circulation at the surface for a long time which explains the ship report. Question is whether there is a LLC that is spinning faster in the center of the area you circled? If its just spinning slowly at the center like a skater with her arms outstretched from her side there won't be any pressure gradient to draw inflow.

Might be a slow process and will require some good convective bursts.

no recon confined multiple times yesterday and last night that no west winds or a closed/broad circ was there. this is a first.

[Aric Dunn]

Should also see another larger increase in convection shortly. some factors playing into it.

[Aric Dunn]

Given some of the recent surface obs and sat presentation. most likely place for a "LLC" would here. there is a small curved band on the eastern and SE side that has been refiring the convection thus far... expect a large burst of convection here next hour or so..

[psyclone]

Nobody is "off the hook", "in the clear" or has "dodged a bullet" based on model runs.

These terms don't apply until the either the system is dissipated or it has passed your area and isn't expected to come back.

I look at this from the opposite angle. everyone's off the hook until something actually forms. Otherwise you have unwarranted hysteria that does nothing but foment future complacency. after the past decade or so, shouldn't the burden of proof be on this basin to actually produce? I'm not getting suckered in by apocalyptic model runs that frankly have very little chance of ever coming to fruition. give me a number, a name...something besides this D-Max will be different.. Don't get me wrong I'm still watching as I know things can change...

[alienstorm]

Agreed, if you look at the Hi-res loop you can see a comma shape just se of Atkins with a hot tower over southern tip

[stormlover2013]

models runs mean squat until we have LLC, I mean they are spread out everywhere because the system is struggling so bad, I'm not a pro but ill say it again rainmaker in florida but if it gets out into the central gom then it could turn ugly.......

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/769272066403098624

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing signs of rotation near the latest burst of convection near the southern tip of that island near 22N 74W when I speed up the NASA Interactive GOES selector. There is at least an MLC developing there and I would not be surprised with the repeated Convective bursts there today of an LLC might be forming there as well. Much better presentation on satellite this afternoon.

[hipshot]

Seeing signs of rotation near the latest burst of convection near the southern tip of that island near 22N 74W when I speed up the NASA Interactive GOES selector. There is at least an MLC developing there and I would not be surprised with the repeated Convective bursts there today of an LLC might be forming there as well. Much better presentation on satellite this afternoon.

I am a real newbie so how does one tell a LLC from an MLC, I am sure it has to do with the cloud structure etc. but I have a tough time.
I have been reading this site for many years but hardly ever post but I have learned a bunch, thanks.

[HurriGuy]

Looks like some big storms started forming last several frames. This could be a sign of what is to come once the sunsets although it will have to deal with the land-firing convection first stealing away some of that energy.

[HurricaneBelle]

Nobody is "off the hook", "in the clear" or has "dodged a bullet" based on model runs.

These terms don't apply until the either the system is dissipated or it has passed your area and isn't expected to come back.

I look at this from the opposite angle. everyone's off the hook until something actually forms. Otherwise you have unwarranted hysteria that does nothing but foment future complacency. after the past decade or so, shouldn't the burden of proof be on this basin to actually produce? I'm not getting suckered in by apocalyptic model runs that frankly have very little chance of ever coming to fruition. give me a number, a name...something besides this D-Max will be different.. Don't get me wrong I'm still watching as I know things can change...

Only the hysterical succumb to hysteria. The models are out there, they're publicly accessible. They're science and math, they're information and they're not going away. They don't "sucker" anybody unless someone allows themselves to be "suckered". The Atlantic basin doesn't have a burden of proof. It's nature. It's not a TV show that you can stop watching and hope gets canceled. Whatever's going to happen weather-wise will happen and it doesn't matter that it's been 10 years since a hurricane hit FL or that it's been 10 days.

You're either prepared or you're not. And if you're unprepared because predicted storms in the past didn't pan out, that's on you. Not the models, not the internet, not the media, not Storm2K.

[gatorcane]

Aric that area you circled looks to be drifting north...interesting. Certainly not moving much.