ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Starting to gradually make the turn in 48hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

Why is the pressure at 1000?

[TheStormExpert]

Why is the pressure at 1000?

That's Mid Surface Level Pressure.

[chaser1]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

The trend has been further south and west in the Caribbean.

[p1nheadlarry]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

I get confused sometimes until I read the title It's not surface pressure.

[SeGaBob]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

You're not looking at the full res which has basically the right pressure.

[SouthFLTropics]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

The 1000mb being shown is at the 500mb level, not at the surface.

[TheStormExpert]

It's slower some on the 00z GFS so far.

[MississippiWx]

Guys, view the hi-res GFS for actual MSLP. Normal GFS resolution doesn't show the actual surface pressure.

[chaser1]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

I get confused sometimes until I read the title It's not surface pressure.

LOL, no... not referring to the 500mb anomaly maps, but the surface maps

[Hurricaneman]

It's slower some on the 00z GFS so far.

and definitely farther west

[toad strangler]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

I get confused sometimes until I read the title It's not surface pressure.

Was trying to show a frame that highlights the much talked about weakness that will be Matthews road through the mid term.

[TheStormExpert]

It's slower some on the 00z GFS so far.

and definitely farther west

Also moving NNW still at the moment.

[p1nheadlarry]

Going west of 75 degrees before the major Caribbean islands, that's a bit west of the last run, correct?

[USTropics]

Ridging is stronger in the 00z GFS run, extending into Florida at 78 hours. This may have implications for Jamaica:

[PTrackerLA]

Kingston could get nailed this run. The west shift continues on the 00z GFS...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Would probably be bad news for Jamaica and Cuba. More time over water.

Interestingly, GFS is coming around to the Euro as far as a slower track.

[p1nheadlarry]

I was just going to ask that. Present 983mb has not been ingested into the model?? Isn't that a bit odd in itself?

I get confused sometimes until I read the title It's not surface pressure.

LOL, no... not referring to the 500mb anomaly maps, but the surface maps

Ahhh ok. Yea they initialized with a pressure of 986, I wonder if the NHC used more recent data than the models did, if that's possible.