ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Despite Satellite appearance and NHC increasing short term percentage to 30% Dothan news station says its less organized and development less likely


 https://twitter.com/WTVYNews4/status/769278325508313088

some saying look better other say look bad depend how good weatherman is

[tarheelprogrammer]

On the rapid scan visible, throughout the forming of the hot tower, I swear I see the lower level could deck start rotating more.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160826&endtime=latest&nframes=50&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550

It is is man it is. Unlike in our slack app chat where I started to write this storm off I will stop writing off this storm for now until it goes poof. Still doubt it does anything but it has a shot if it can keep building around that area. Looks like a new LLC where the latest big blow up is happening at.

[Stormcenter]

99L deserves a name just based on all the attention it's gotten on this board.............139 pages!!!!

Funny how we were all baffled as to why the models didn't make this at least a cat.1 hurricane in the Bahamas, well now we know why.
I still think there's a 50/50 this becomes a named story sometime in the future..

[jlauderdal]

Fancy meteorological terminology from Key West NWS:

AS IT NEARS, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC,
WEAKLY CONVERGENT, SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, AND CHOCK FULL OF INITIATION
SOURCES.

[jlauderdal]

I guess they have a big travel budget this year:

mikeseidel1 min
Beautiful day on South Beach as we keep an eye on #99L. We're live from the @RustyPelicanFL in Key Biscayne https://t.co/ewYmn7DC6k

[Texashawk]

I guess they have a big travel budget this year:

mikeseidel1 min
Beautiful day on South Beach as we keep an eye on #99L. We're live from the @RustyPelicanFL in Key Biscayne https://t.co/ewYmn7DC6k

Well, now it's a lock. At least they haven't sent JC yet...

[blp]

BLP,

Is that the Mid Level off to the right where the big burst of storms are? Or could be where the eventual LLC gets going.

The Mid level is still off over Hispaniola and is slowly moving toward the area of low level. I thought the MLC would die over Hispaniola mountains but still alive. We need to resolve this issue either it dies or gets stacked up over the low level. Until then it is just competition again.

[jeff]

Despite Satellite appearance and NHC increasing short term percentage to 30% Dothan news station says its less organized and development less likely


 https://twitter.com/WTVYNews4/status/769278325508313088

some saying look better other say look bad depend how good weatherman is

It is better organized than yesterday especially when speaking about the convective appearance and development of convection. Looks like a fairly sharp wave axis with showers and thunderstorms on its eastern flank. Reading through some of the post on here the last few days, social media (twitter) and the various national news networks...some of the information being provided is just flat wrong.

What is even more astounding to me have been the number of people that see the model output on TV and have made incorrect assumptions just because they see lines drawn on a map. We have never had an actual NHC forecast or error cone produced for this system...yet...somehow some people think a hurricane is heading their way just based off lines on a map and either correct or incorrect context of what the map is showing. This really raises a big concern on how information is communicated and what people actually hear and respond to. Seems like a lot of people are responding to the headlines...which have been borderline insane versus some of the more measured actual weather information.

Apparently we have entered the new wave of forecasting finally where social media can drive a complete phantom hurricane off model runs while the actual system remains a tropical wave. Future forecasters will spend nearly all their time correcting mis-information and rumors. This has been coming for a while...lucky the Atlantic tropics have produce few US threats in the last several years.

[STRiZZY]

IMO I think convection will explode tonight causing 99L to look better than it has since it was in the MDR. Now whether or not it becomes better organized in the next 24hrs (Vertical stacking) I'm not sure.

[floridasun78]

I guess they have a big travel budget this year:

mikeseidel1 min
Beautiful day on South Beach as we keep an eye on #99L. We're live from the @RustyPelicanFL in Key Biscayne https://t.co/ewYmn7DC6k

he here pay vacation by the weather ch

[NDG]

Cuban radar shows that cyclonic turning is center over land j/k
I guess they are having radar issues.

[drewschmaltz]

I've ran some unconventional analysis and I'm absolutely certain that MLC and LLC will stack when Discussion page count > Model page count.

[Siker]

Cuban radar shows that cyclonic turning is center over land j/k

I guess they are having radar issues.

Naw that looks fine to me, matches well with the giant pinwheel of doom seen on satellite.

[STRiZZY]

Cuban radar shows that cyclonic turning is center over land j/k
I guess they are having radar issues.

That's some narrow banding there

[floridasun78]

Cuban radar shows that cyclonic turning is center over land j/k

I guess they are having radar issues.

their rainbow cyclone over cuba let send -plane check it out

[SoupBone]

Cuban radar shows that cyclonic turning is center over land j/k
I guess they are having radar issues.

Wave to a Cat 5 in about 2 hours! Has to be a record!

[Aric Dunn]

nice couple series of hot towers. assuming those keep re firing they should help increase the weaker inflow on the west side.

[Frank2]

I did talk on the phone to a pro met this afternoon, and he verified what was noticed - there is a ULL between 99 and Florida, so that really lowers the chance of development for now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[NDG]

[SoupBone]

I hate to be a brat, but can someone label the spots where they think both the mid level and low level rotation are? I just don't see it on visible.