ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2961 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:48 am

A lot of talk about modeling failing, I think all that talk it premature... Until it's run to completion comes to fruition, and final if any land impact, then you can go back and see which model performed the best. Way to many unknowns at this time for the future... Obviously some model will soon start getting it right.. Be it 99L never develops or ultimately down the road develops into a decent storm, only time will tell... my humble opinion...
Last edited by Frank P on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2962 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:51 am

agree with Frank....looking at current state of 99L...Lets see what the 12Z EURO shows in a few hours before we all freak out. :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2963 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:01 pm

I thought we stopped the model wars? Folks, there is a lot of time, many factors still to evolve and much acreage to traverse. This will take some time to sort itself out. Relax.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2964 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:03 pm

Tireman4 wrote:I thought we stopped the model wars? Folks, there is a lot of time, many factors still to evolve and much acreage to traverse. This will take some time to sort itself out. Relax.


The cycle literally repeats itself with every storm. The model wars will never end.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2965 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:11 pm

I have no idea what's going on with the HWRF - at the 60~ hour mark it's looking like circulation gets elongated and a new dominant center tries to take over by Andros Island? :?: :?: :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2966 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:13 pm

Anyone know where I can view the UKMET online (full resolution)? You'd think I'd have access here at the office, but that's one model we don't get.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2967 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:14 pm

After much jumping around HWRF seems to take a sloppy TS into South Florida at 72 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2968 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:Anyone know where I can view the UKMET online (full resolution)? You'd think I'd have access here at the office, but that's one model we don't get.


The highest resolution freely available that I know of is the http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ graphics, but they won't update until 2:30 central time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2969 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2970 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:33 pm

12z HWRF still persistent of 99L becoming a TS over the FL Straights and move over to the SE GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2971 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:40 pm

The 12Z Euro will take the witness stand in about 15 minutes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2972 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:49 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:The 12Z Euro will take the witness stand in about 15 minutes.


and the firing squad if it caves to the gfs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2973 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:54 pm

Euro caving to the GFS id say
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2974 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:01 pm

:uarrow: I'd have to agree that's what'll happen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2975 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:02 pm

Disagree.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2976 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:02 pm

Btw... Compare the overall Atlantic at 48 hrs in the GFS vs the Euro. See how Gaston is progged 14 mb weaker by the GFS vs the Euro? That is significant and unreasonable.
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2977 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:03 pm

Euro weaker theough 48hrs similar to Gfs

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2978 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:04 pm

EPIC meltdown on the EURO in progress...looks awful through hr 60...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2979 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:06 pm

deltadog03 wrote:EPIC meltdown on the EURO in progress...looks awful through hr 60...


Didn't look well on the 00Z run til about 96 hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2980 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:09 pm

EPIC Euro meltdown....yikes:

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