ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3121 Postby TropicalSailor » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:33 am

We still getting the scheduled recon flights or did they cancel them?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3122 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:34 am

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=600&aniheight=373

rapid-scan visible

It's beating a dead horse, but its obvious sheer has relaxed in the real-time data. Not just those dumb maps
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3123 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:35 am

HurriGuy wrote:We will know if it is a sharp wave axis very soon. About another hour and a half till next ASCAT pass. Hopefully it is clean.


Plenty of westerly winds reported to the south of it over Central Cuba, so I wouldn't say it is just a sharp wave axis, it definitely still has a broad circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3124 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:40 am

caneman wrote:


Why are you saying done and gone? It actually looks better than ever to me.


My opinion sure did upset some folks. :) I see no signs of an LLC or even a broad circulation, all I see is a wave axis. I'm an amateur just like most of us here, so certainly don't treat my opinion as anything more than an opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3125 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:40 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

OK, now that i have that out of the way...let me get to my observations and thoughts:

I believe that we are about to see something rare today, live visible rapid scan cyclogenesis. I think that 99L is going to be named within 36 hours. Note a few things:
1. You have very high CAPEs now and two hot tower regions about to converge.
2. Shear is there, but not enough to stop development now
3. Natural surface convergence and lift are about to tke hold between FL and Cuba

I think the following is going to happen:
1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave is heading NW toward the forming LLC near the tip of the S most tower
2. The tower will continue to grow NW almost like an outflow boundary toward the center
3. Once it gets there, a new tower should form very near the new LLC in the SE quad
4. We will see strong inflow from the W to SE into the new tower
5. It will collapse and pulse a couple of times before it fires for good
6. I believe that 99L will be classified and be at least a moderate TS in 48 hours

I typically do not post this much, but feel compelled to give my thoughts.
Last edited by drezee on Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3126 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:41 am

So if yall look at the long range water vapor, you can tell there is a real broad cyclonic spin actually providing some decent south inflow now. I caught it on visible. This wasn't the case yesterday. The winds are very relaxed where 99L is right now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3127 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:43 am

This might be evolving quick. New convection forming further northwest. Circulation might be under the bigger mass that has been exploding several hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3128 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:44 am

Outside of GFS and ECM just about every other model goes on to develop this to some degree and more than half the Intensity guidance so I don't know where you can say it is done. Still a robust wave axis and convection and moving toward the FL Straits and the Gulf. Unless one just throws out every other model and only basis for a forecast is with the GFS and ECM then I wouldn't totally right this off yet!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3129 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:46 am

Tolakram, it wasn't my intent to challenge you but rather get a better understanding as to why you thought it was done.
Last edited by caneman on Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3130 Postby Agua » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:48 am

drezee wrote:1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave



wut?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3131 Postby drewschmaltz » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:50 am

I'm in Orlando about to take a drive to Tampa. The increased winds and relaxed temperature we have had the past few days feels long overdue. It has been a grueling summer. Its been a while now since I've been through a hurricane but there's something almost spooky and familiar about this weather.......
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3132 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:51 am

Yet more evidence of a westerly wind over Cuba, which some people I guess do not want to acknowledge.
Cayo Coco, Cuba, 22.5N & 78.3W, along the northern coast of Cuba, has been been reporting westerly winds all morning long.

Conditions at: MUCC observed 27 August 2016 11:53 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.82 inches Hg (1010.0 mb)
Winds: from the W (280 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 knots; 3.6 m/s)
Visibility: 6 miles (9 km)
Ceiling: 1800 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
Present Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

Image
MUCC 271153Z 28007KT 9000 BKN018CB 26/24 Q1010
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/ind ... s=Retrieve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3133 Postby Recurve » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:54 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3134 Postby TheHook210 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:58 am

This really has been a crazy storm.

It looks like regardless of what happens it is going to stay minimal. Been really enjoyin the tropical breeze and cooler temps on the east coast of FL. Not really sure what is causing it but it looks to remain through next week. Hoping 99 will bring some needed rain to what has been an extremely dry summer so far.

***Just my opinion not a forecast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#3135 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:00 am

Cyclone. Did they cancel teal 75 sceduled for today?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3136 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:00 am

If you zoom into close on all the towers forming near the circulation.....something is going on down at the surface. Maybe it's the ay the showers are forming, but it looks different
Last edited by HurriGuy on Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3137 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:01 am

Agua wrote:
drezee wrote:1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave



wut?

my thoughts are if you ever wanted to see "textbook" cyclogenesis...save all the 1km visibles today....I will. I put my forecast and rationale out there...let us wait and see...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3138 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:02 am

drezee wrote:
Agua wrote:
drezee wrote:1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave



wut?

my thoughts are if you ever wanted to see "textbook" cyclogenesis...save all the 1km visibles today....I will. I put it my forecast and rationale out there...let us wait and see...


I am agreeing with your thoughts. You are seeing everything I am seeing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3139 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:02 am

Recurve wrote:That GOES 14 SRSOR view is amazing. Some real convective boiling going on now. Over in the models thread, the HWRF as usual is a scary thing with 952mb heading for Sarasota-Tampa.

sat: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

HWRF Aug. 31: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082706&fh=93&xpos=0&ypos=219



That is a nice sat loop. If you watch it you can see the low level clouds take a hard left and be pulled back into the area of convection. Definite cyclonic turning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3140 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:02 am

Recurve wrote:That GOES 14 SRSOR view is amazing. Some real convective boiling going on now. Over in the models thread, the HWRF as usual is a scary thing with 952mb heading for Sarasota-Tampa.


Last I saw, was the tower off Cuba was at about -80C. Probably even more intense now.

Upper level heating of the sun isn't knocking them down.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... nd/nhc/ot/
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