ATL: HERMINE - Models

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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3141 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:10 am

Looks to be a tad stronger over SFL. (compared to 12z)
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3142 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:11 am

euro 72h

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STRiZZY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3143 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:13 am

Looking a lot weaker this run so far. Same position basically though.
Last edited by STRiZZY on Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3144 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:13 am

A little slower on this run I think
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3145 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:15 am

Turns it north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3146 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:16 am

Looks like the Euro and GFS have swapped ideas now :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by STRiZZY on Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3147 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:16 am

Land interaction looks to keep it weak this run.
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3148 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:16 am

euro 96H

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HurriGuy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3149 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:17 am

Land interaction is not the problem this run.

It is being torn apart by high sheer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3150 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:18 am

Has it caught between a upper level low and a upper high. It would be toast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3151 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:25 am

euro 120H

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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3152 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:27 am

HurriGuy wrote:Land interaction is not the problem this run.

It is being torn apart by high sheer.


No it spends more time over Florida... barely makes the Gulf. So yes it is the problem.
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stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3153 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:28 am

0Z TS that dont stack, looks a flood threat for Florida.
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Last edited by stormwise on Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3154 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:29 am

I think we can agree that the EC is utter hot garbage. It has absolutely no clue. Flips from cat 4 to sheared trough.

As has been said before, the changes made have made it one of the WORST models. It has been close to GFDL bad this year
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3155 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:34 am

Alyono wrote:I think we can agree that the EC is utter hot garbage. It has absolutely no clue. Flips from cat 4 to sheared trough.

As has been said before, the changes made have made it one of the WORST models. It has been close to GFDL bad this year

The one thing said tonight I can agree with, this thing has been up and down like a window shade
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South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3156 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:50 am

Alyono wrote:I think we can agree that the EC is utter hot garbage. It has absolutely no clue. Flips from cat 4 to sheared trough.

As has been said before, the changes made have made it one of the WORST models. It has been close to GFDL bad this year


It sure has been horrible in the tropics since the last upgrade. However in the mid latitudes it's been very good. Too bad it can't be great in both.
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stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3157 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:54 am

Been following the atl for a few seasons models always struggle with solutions in the GOM this is no different maybe another 48hrs before there is any real
consensus.Nobody is out of the woods yet.
Last edited by stormwise on Fri Aug 26, 2016 2:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3158 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 2:35 am

UKMET is an intensifying likely major hurricane aiming towards the Panhandle:

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stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3159 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:08 am

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3160 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 26, 2016 4:36 am

STRiZZY wrote:Looks like the Euro and GFS have swapped ideas now :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
i am not buying either one of them until there is agreement and even then at least for this system only out to about 48 hours with very low confidence...seriously, its like when a system is getting within 24-36 hours of landfall..stop looking at models and just look at satellite, radar and obs and make your own forecast

You guys feel frustration....here is insight as to how nhc feels

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6h6 hours ago
Just feel bludgeoned after days of working #99L- weather fcsting has made progress but boy we have a long way to go!
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