ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[otterlyspicey]

This run looks like a bit closer to the SE coast initially, however an even more aggressive/sooner right turn out to sea just when it looks like the SE could be in play. A storm is gonna do what a storm is gonna do. And this storm likes the sea. Lol

[jlauderdal]

oh oh

BigJoeBastardi1 min
Slower ( again) further west movement visible on GFS. new 144 vs old 150 https://t.co/0YetZhTVN8

[p1nheadlarry]

I don't buy 918mb off NC. Definitely warm waters and is over the GS, but they don't run as deep as the Bahamas/WCarib. Better be moving fast.

[OntarioEggplant]

One of the biggest developments this run is how much the GFS backed off the trough in the eastern Gulf.

[RL3AO]

Serious question - I see that there is a Low coming in from Canada around this time but it still looks like the High is still right over Matthew. What is making it push through that High?

That's all Sw flow off East Coast. It's West of Bermuda Ridge and East of a trough. That means north or north east movement.

[AutoPenalti]

Where did ukmet shift too?

Shifted west significantly.

[sma10]

MASSIVE west shift by the UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 70.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2016 0 13.8N 70.5W 991 61
0000UTC 01.10.2016 12 13.2N 72.2W 993 50
1200UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.8N 73.9W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 36 12.9N 74.6W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.6N 75.9W 990 49
0000UTC 03.10.2016 60 15.0N 77.1W 983 58
1200UTC 03.10.2016 72 16.5N 77.0W 978 60
0000UTC 04.10.2016 84 18.3N 76.6W 976 62
1200UTC 04.10.2016 96 20.4N 76.1W 977 54
0000UTC 05.10.2016 108 22.2N 75.8W 970 63
1200UTC 05.10.2016 120 23.5N 75.5W 966 67
0000UTC 06.10.2016 132 24.7N 75.8W 961 69
1200UTC 06.10.2016 144 26.2N 76.8W 945 80

I think with today's first 2 main 12Z runs, there is now slightly less certainty than yesterday, simply because both UK and GFS are now showing hints of a small turnback. We are accustomed to the parabolic shape of these tracks, that once a TC begins to show an easterly component, it's usually "turn out the lights". But both of these models, are suggesting that in or around the Central Bahamas a westerly component may occur. Not to say that Matthew will strike Florida or the SE coast - I still think this unlikely - but there's just a tiny more uncertainty I believe. Mostly because we cannot be sure if this is just a slight blip in the track or if this is the beginning of a more general trend. Of course, we cannot know this until after the fact - so watch and wait is all we have.

[sponger]

GFS trying to get everyone's attention in the SE with that run. Wow!!!

It has it!

[p1nheadlarry]

The only reason the GFS turns east this run is because it spins up some random low to Matthew's NE that breaks up the ridge just in time to avoid US landfall. That, however, is not something I'd recommend betting on, especially since it's in the 6-7 day timeframe. If not for that low, this would've likely made landfall.

I'll upload a GIF in a minute.

I noticed that too. Scary.

[chris_fit]

So far, with today's model runs, there is greater certainty in the uncertainty of impacts along the SE US

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Ukmet did NOT shift west. Last time it was in the florida straights right offshore south florida. Now it barely makes it to 77W. Its also further north at the end of its run.....


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[gatorcane]

The CMC shifts very slightly west and also shows some slowing in the Bahamas too....

Also continues to develop a spurious TC to the east.

[LarryWx]

MASSIVE west shift by the UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 70.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2016 0 13.8N 70.5W 991 61
0000UTC 01.10.2016 12 13.2N 72.2W 993 50
1200UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.8N 73.9W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 36 12.9N 74.6W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.6N 75.9W 990 49
0000UTC 03.10.2016 60 15.0N 77.1W 983 58
1200UTC 03.10.2016 72 16.5N 77.0W 978 60
0000UTC 04.10.2016 84 18.3N 76.6W 976 62
1200UTC 04.10.2016 96 20.4N 76.1W 977 54
0000UTC 05.10.2016 108 22.2N 75.8W 970 63
1200UTC 05.10.2016 120 23.5N 75.5W 966 67
0000UTC 06.10.2016 132 24.7N 75.8W 961 69
1200UTC 06.10.2016 144 26.2N 76.8W 945 80

It is a massive west shift of the 12Z UKMET vs the 0Z UKMET? I have more of a northerly shift of about 150 miles. What am I missing? Anyone else? Correct me if I'm wrong as I may be looking at the wrong data. Thanks.

[drezee]

GFS says slow and go is not the only option...the second trough goes negative tilt and phases with Matthew...wow...12 hours slower and that is the long Island express II

[ThetaE]

The only reason the GFS turns east this run is because it spins up some random low to Matthew's NE that breaks up the ridge just in time to avoid US landfall. That, however, is not something I'd recommend betting on, especially since it's in the 6-7 day timeframe. If not for that low, this would've likely made landfall.

I'll upload a GIF in a minute.

Look to the northeast to see what I was talking about with that random low; it almost looks like it forms from one of Matthew's bands, but I'm not sure.


My analysis may not be right about this allowing Matthew to turn NE, but the development of this low at least coincides with it.

[otterlyspicey]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Ends up hooking into the Northeast

[Evil Jeremy]

12z UKMET shows landfalls on Jamaica and Cuba (vs Haiti from last run). Takes Matthew through Central and then NW Bahamas on a NNW heading.

[drezee]

HR 216 and a strong storm curving back into Maine.

A darn Cat 4 pressure into Maine...geez

[SouthFLTropics]

MASSIVE west shift by the UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 70.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2016 0 13.8N 70.5W 991 61
0000UTC 01.10.2016 12 13.2N 72.2W 993 50
1200UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.8N 73.9W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 36 12.9N 74.6W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.6N 75.9W 990 49
0000UTC 03.10.2016 60 15.0N 77.1W 983 58
1200UTC 03.10.2016 72 16.5N 77.0W 978 60
0000UTC 04.10.2016 84 18.3N 76.6W 976 62
1200UTC 04.10.2016 96 20.4N 76.1W 977 54
0000UTC 05.10.2016 108 22.2N 75.8W 970 63
1200UTC 05.10.2016 120 23.5N 75.5W 966 67
0000UTC 06.10.2016 132 24.7N 75.8W 961 69
1200UTC 06.10.2016 144 26.2N 76.8W 945 80

It is a massive west shift of the 12Z UKMET vs the 0Z UKMET? I have more of a northerly shift of about 150 miles. What am I missing? Anyone else? Correct me if I'm wrong as I may be looking at the wrong data. Thanks.

I picked up on the same thing. Looked more north to me than anything else.