ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

New storms started firing in last couple of frames in the rapid-scan IR.

Just south of the suspect COC

[GCANE]

Main convection at 37GHz on WINDSAT looked really good about 3 hrs ago.
Still holding up well on IR.

Looks like the 30N 70W ULL will get washed out in a couple hours.

BTW, Windsat was showing 50 knot west winds in the convection.

[HurriGuy]

Here is that WindSat image. It was over 3 hours ago.

[GCANE]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

[NDG]

We are getting all anxious about a possible LLC developing, now watch the NHC on their next TWO lowering chances even further if the 12z GFS still shows no significant development, lol.

[AutoPenalti]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

This is like watching the stock market during a bull day

Btw, is it me or does it seem to not be moving at all on IR?

[wxsouth]

Here is that WindSat image. It was over 3 hours ago.

WindSat winds are highly unreliable, especially in convection.

[weathermimmi]

New to the board, live in the Florida panhandle , love reading the discussions. Another storm that grew quickly was Opal which came from Bay of Campeechee {sp} it was small cat 1 and within a few hours early that morning grew substantially. Many factors to consider....I am watching this one....

[GeneratorPower]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

What is a Theta-E ridge?

[SoupBone]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

I wish you guys would post links to what you're seeing. We don't all have access to the same stuff.

[TheStormExpert]

Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.

[NDG]

ASCAT is taking its sweet time this morning to pass over this area.

[GCANE]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

What is a Theta-E ridge?

Its a measure of the instability of the air and how much energy can be released in convection.
Usually when convection moves into a higher region of theta-e, it will intensify.

[RL3AO]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

Where are you finding theta-e plots for the tropics?

[JaxGator]

Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.

The waters over there are still warm because they were so warm last season and if you look a few pages back, you'll see a chart showing the MJO arriving in the West Atlantic this morning.

[GCANE]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

I wish you guys would post links to what you're seeing. We don't all have access to the same stuff.

I am using:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Use 1km products and zoom in on the Bahamas.
You can then click on the various products like CAPE, Theta-e, etc.

[GCANE]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

Where are you finding theta-e plots for the tropics?

Take a look at my reply to SoupBone.

[HurriGuy]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

I wish you guys would post links to what you're seeing. We don't all have access to the same stuff.

I am using:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Use 1km products and zoom in on the Bahamas.
You can then click on the various products like CAPE, Theta-e, etc.

Oh this is good. Thanks!

[TheStormExpert]

Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.

The waters over there are still warm because they were so warm last season and if you look a few pages back, you'll see a chart showing the MJO arriving in the West Atlantic this morning.

This tweet from Michael Lowry begs to differ.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/769535983729647616

[RL3AO]

The Theta-E ridge continues to build and is pushing into the convection.

About 364 along 24N

I wish you guys would post links to what you're seeing. We don't all have access to the same stuff.

I am using:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Use 1km products and zoom in on the Bahamas.
You can then click on the various products like CAPE, Theta-e, etc.

From my experience theta-e ridges are best used to show where an area of convection might first develop. Of course, there is higher theta-e ahead of the convection than underneath it because you have rain cooled air and therefore lower theta-e values.