ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The mid level is slightly east of the low level vort over the islands. The system looks to have slowed down some past 3 hrs which is good. I think the models may have been moving this too quick into the teeth of that shear.

It does appear that 92L has slowed its forward speed a bit today, which has allowed the system to better organize today and it also looks to be moving w-nw currently. If it does not out run the anticyclone over it currently, it may be able to avoid the shear axis just ahead of it for short while.

[Dean4Storms]

This looks about as organized as 99L did when it was in the same location!

[cajungal]

I think the chances of development may go up. May be a player in the gulf down the road.

[Blinhart]

Another 12 to 24 hours of continue organization I think they NHC will up the percentages a whole lot like 70/90. I think the only reason that this hasn't had recon yet is not because of Hermine is because of what the models have been showing, which is not much at all. So if this system can do opposite of what the models are showing (does that sound familiar?) they will have to get recon in there and up the percentages and start talking about what areas need to keep an eye on this system.

[Dean4Storms]

A Hot Tower blowing up right about where a center appears to be.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely moving WNW, models seem sort of clueless with the MDR this year.

[Steve]

The envelope is moving west though the circulation may be getting a little bit of a lift per mimic. If so, it's not much of a N component yet looking at the TPW.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[abajan]

I wonder if this is going to become another 441 page (and counting) thread, like Hermine.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the models, particularly the GFS, have been moving 92L I think too quickly.

The system has been improving structually all day and it.definitely is becoming more apparent with time that a LLC looks to be establishing itself.

[Steve]

I wonder if this is going to become another 441 page (and counting) thread, like Hermine.

I think probably not because the models weren't showing potential as early or devastating as many places with sub 950 landfalls. Could pick up though for sure.

[abajan]

Definitely looks impressive on this visible satellite image which was shot at 5:15 PM EDT:

[Dean4Storms]

The envelope is moving west though the circulation may be getting a little bit of a lift per mimic. If so, it's not much of a N component yet looking at the TPW.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Earlier it appeared to be centered near 15N and now 15.4N or so, I'd say it is now moving at about 275 degrees.

[Steve]

I think you are right. It looks like a bit of a ricochet or a low level push off the coast of Guyana or Venezuela nudging it up some. Looks like it will be a gradual lift for now.

[floridasun78]

anyone got islands radar ?look going stormy night in islands

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving across the Lesser Antilles and continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several
days. This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles
through Monday morning, and should spread over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye do you have the latest Best Track?
Thank you

[Blinhart]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving across the Lesser Antilles and continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several
days. This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles
through Monday morning, and should spread over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Looks pretty organized to me.

[gatorcane]

Convection is concentrated right around the possible LLC and seems to be maintaining. It does seem more organized to me also:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Gustywind]

Convection is concentrated right around the possible LLC and seems to be maintaining. It does seem more organized to me also:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Very interresting Gatorcane! Which location exactly do you see it? Thanks for your help.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 11N61W through low
pres 1008 mb centered at 15N60W to 19N60W. The wave is located
just E of the Windward Islands and is moving westward at 15 to
20 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate and
isolated strong from 12N to 17N between 55W and 66W. Latest
satellite-derived wind data show an area of fresh to strong NE to
E winds accompanies this wave from 13N to 19N between 54W and
67W. Model guidance suggests this wave will continue westward
and bring associated convection to the central Caribbean between
Colombia and Hispaniola on Tuesday.