ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like Matthew may try to ramp up a little more here soon. Eye about to pop out again.

[AutoPenalti]

Model thread has been closed.

[toad strangler]

lol tolakram beat me to it by less than a minute that was not on purpose

[Lighthousewatch28]

Is a landalling Matthew in South Carolina a threat at this point?

[tolakram]

Model thread has been closed.

It has been paused, not closed. 12Z GFS starts in less than 25 minutes.

[HURRICANELONNY]

They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth. Probably last name till 2017. News hyping a little here in S Fl. Models have been pretty consistent of east of Florida. I hope for some feeder bands just to say; Ill be back next year. Hope no one gets fully affected. But looks like parts of east cuba and Haiti will get the brunt. Hope Matthew heads out to sea after heading north.

[La Sirena]

Model thread has been closed.

It has been paused, not closed. 12Z GFS starts in less than 25 minutes.

I don't blame you lol.

[toad strangler]

NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

[La Sirena]

NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

Well, they're certainly sticking to their guns!

[Sunnsandsc]

Hi all. My first time posting! I was wondering what your thoughts were on the possible impacts to Charleston SC may be? It's been a long time since SC has seen a hurricane with the intensity of Matthew. Our meteorologist here are still not sure of what to expect outside of the beach erosion, some wind and minor flooding. My thoughts and prayers are with those in the path of this storm. Stay safe.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

Wow, considering this is still moving W, that's pretty strange.

[Raebie]

Model thread has been closed.

It has been paused, not closed. 12Z GFS starts in less than 25 minutes.

Thank you. I am sick of having to wade through pages of BS to see a run.

[toad strangler]

NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

Wow, considering this is still moving W, that's pretty strange.

There must be good confidence that Matthew is about to lift to the N

[Weatherboy1]

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but Matthew really isn't gaining much latitude. It's possible he will cross 75W at around 14N if he doesn't start turning soon. The latest NHC discussion also refers to the GOMEX trough as "weak" - which is something I was thinking about too. This is not one of those polar-origin, late fall, sweeping long-wave troughs that can overpower any system no matter how strong. It's enough to influence steering, sure, but these continued westerly moves better end soon to keep us out of trouble here in FL

[dukeblue219]

They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth.

I am a long time lurker, but I admit it is frustrating when I wake up and want to see the technical model discussion from the overnight runs and there's 20 pages of mostly banter in the model page.

It's easy to just skip forward in the discussion thread but I don't want to have to do that in the model or recon threads.

Just my two cents as more of a reader than a contributor.

[NDG]

I still don't know why they are putting so much weight on the HWRF, it has not been performing well at all in the 3-5 day range, right biased.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782597822453604352

[robbielyn]

well with it going west at 3mph which I ddidn't realize it had slowed to that speed, it could very well be getting ready to head north today.

[pcolaman]

Kinda weird that this storm was supposed to be on the journey thru the straights at this point. STILL no turn and STILL on the west to wnw heading. From my years of watching the storms it's not doing the model things as of yet. So everyone from ALL the gulf Coast to the outer banks really need to pay attention! I think that if it isn't north of you , watch and wait. Then you can say all clear. This is my opinion first and formost. ..

[toad strangler]

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but Matthew really isn't gaining much latitude. It's possible he will cross 75W at around 14N if he doesn't start turning soon. The latest NHC discussion also refers to the GOMEX trough as "weak" - which is something I was thinking about too. This is not one of those polar-origin, late fall, sweeping long-wave troughs that can overpower any system no matter how strong. It's enough to influence steering, sure, but these continued westerly moves better end soon to keep us out of trouble here in FL

It's moving at 3ph. Basically stationary. You would need to see faster movement than that over some time to really alter the projected track.