ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth. Probably last name till 2017. News hyping a little here in S Fl. Models have been pretty consistent of east of Florida. I hope for some feeder bands just to say; Ill be back next year. Hope no one gets fully affected. But looks like parts of east cuba and Haiti will get the brunt. Hope Matthew heads out to sea after heading north.

We have asked numerous times to take the discussion here, the model thread is intended for model runs and direct discussion about them. If the model thread fills up with needless discussion it becomes useless and might as well be rolled into here.

[AutoPenalti]

well with it going west at 3mph which I ddidn't realize it had slowed to that speed, it could very well be getting ready to head north today.

While this may be true, remember that yesterday we thought it was going to do just that only for it to do cyclonic loop.

[Ntxw]

The model thread needs to be kept technical. If you intend to post there it needs to be directed with evidence from models and model runs, preferably with images. With lots of interest and concerns we need to weed out data from general opinion and derailing of the thread. It's not helpful to the reader listening to people argue back and forth when they are looking for sound information. Opinons and concerns should be posted here.

[MetroMike]

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but Matthew really isn't gaining much latitude. It's possible he will cross 75W at around 14N if he doesn't start turning soon. The latest NHC discussion also refers to the GOMEX trough as "weak" - which is something I was thinking about too. This is not one of those polar-origin, late fall, sweeping long-wave troughs that can overpower any system no matter how strong. It's enough to influence steering, sure, but these continued westerly moves better end soon to keep us out of trouble here in FL

It's moving at 3ph. Basically stationary. You would need to see faster movement than that over some time to really alter the projected track.

One would think this slow to non movement would cause some upwelling to a degree enough to erode the circulation some.
Levi Cowan referenced it this morning.

[Floridagal]

Interesting and not at all comforting to hear TWC talk about the margin of error for the cone over the last hour. 1/3 of the time eye will fall on the outside.

Fully aware of uncertainty here, but how much longer will the westward jog/stairstepping really impact whether the northward movement even happens? I don't think Matthew is playing by the rules.

[Tireman4]

They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth. Probably last name till 2017. News hyping a little here in S Fl. Models have been pretty consistent of east of Florida. I hope for some feeder bands just to say; Ill be back next year. Hope no one gets fully affected. But looks like parts of east cuba and Haiti will get the brunt. Hope Matthew heads out to sea after heading north.

We have asked numerous times to take the discussion here, the model thread is intended for model runs and direct discussion about them. If the model thread fills up with needless discussion it becomes useless and might as well be rolled into here.

Yes. Yes. Yes. 1000 times. Yes. That is why we have TWO different threads.

[mph101]

Any thoughts on the long term convection to the east of the hurricane? I have been wondering about this since yesterday.
NHC noted it on the 11 AM advisory "Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown"

[Sanibel]

It's bumping up against a weak steering pattern. The outlet between a trough and High is always poleward. It's just at that latitude the trough isn't as strong as it would be further north.

I would think that the longer it takes to get picked up North the more likely the front in the US would have time to get in place and steer the track East and away from the US.

[SouthDadeFish]

Matthew has become better organized on the last few satellite frames, with the eye clearing out:

[GCANE]

Cirrus is spreading out now like a fog over Matthew.
No Cu Nims popping up.
Sitting over one spot for a prolonged period of time.
He's got all the signs of a slowly weakening TC.

[floridasun78]

do it look moving more toward jamica ? i hope their not putting guard down

[sponger]

Still heading West? It refuses to cooperate! Turn is coming, just a bit late but forward speed makes it irrelevant. I had hoped it would get a little farther in the hopes of Cuba's mountains disrupting it. Looks less likely now and the Bahamas are going to get nailed unless we can find some shear or dry air soon. The GFS run into NC, NJ, Long Island and New England is ugly and a huge concern.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

Just my 2 cents worth but the mets at NHC are there and the ones who arent and on this forum isnt at the NHC for a reason. I say that to say that every season people are so quick to say "nhc is bust on this forecast" and such. Well if the NHC has it east of Fl then I believe it will be east of Fl. I truly dont understand this -removed-, westcasting, & doomcasting. Not saying that nobody can question/wonder about the NHC 's forecast but if they continually show an east heading there's no need for these "what if" scenerios esp. when there's no "what if" chap. in nobody's science book ever.

[1900hurricane]

We're going to have to watch the evolution of Matthew's inner band very closely. It is already wrapped most of the way around the eyewall/CDO right now, as seen on visible imagery. If it does wrap all the way around and become an outer eyewall, it would likely be too big to allow Matthew to strengthen for a while.

[hurricaneCW]

Cirrus is spreading out now like a fog over Matthew.
No Cu Nims popping up.
Sitting over one spot for a prolonged period of time.
He's got all the signs of a slowly weakening TC.

Incorrect, Matthew is expanding in all quadrants as the shear is weakening. The eye is also trying to clear out again I wouldn't be surprised to see another intensification burst soon.

Do think upwelling affected him somewhat but he should start moving more today, which will diminish that factor.

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

Maybe, though in the discussion:

Looking at the better-performing models, the track
guidance suite is bracketed by the GFS model on the left and the
HWRF model on the right. The official forecast is slightly west of
the multi-model consensus and very similar to the previous NHC
track.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The model thread needs to be kept technical. If you intend to post there it needs to be directed with evidence from models and model runs, preferably with images. With lots of interest and concerns we need to weed out data from general opinion and derailing of the thread. It's not helpful to the reader listening to people argue back and forth when they are looking for sound information. Opinons and concerns should be posted here.

I apologize for my last post in the model thread. I know the rules, but quite honestly. with all the discussion on who was panicing about a threat of a landfall, I forgot it was the model thread, and thought I was in the discussion thread. My bad.

[Hurricaneman]

There is upwelling where Matthew is now, but should be moving into higher heat content shortly, and looking at the previous NHC plot for Matthew at 5AM this is well west of that plot heck its west of all the model plots right now so Florida could get anything from a glancing blow to a major hurricane, after that I'm really concerned for the Carolinas and the Northeastern US

[Bocadude85]

Can someone explain to me what is going to cause the NNE movement prior to the turn back to the NNW?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I study the solar system a lot. This storm almost looks like two storms try to form a second eye.. really Looks like what happens on Jupiter from time to time... but it is poorly understood what makes it happen on Jupiter. Perhaps we can get some information from this