ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a north wobble on last frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Based on that loop, it looks like the eye is about to burst open. Finally undergoing a replacement cycle? That would help explain the irregular motion as of late...

Yeah, looks to be an illusion of a poleward movement.

[Sanibel]

The predicted NNE movement is probably from the High over Mexico bumping the trough over the West Caribbean slightly East making the hurricane react accordingly. Matthew then goes north and hits the Atlantic High that sends it more NNW at that latitude.


The front coming through Texas looks like the kicker that breaks the log jam.

[Evenstar]

The model thread needs to be kept technical. If you intend to post there it needs to be directed with evidence from models and model runs, preferably with images. With lots of interest and concerns we need to weed out data from general opinion and derailing of the thread. It's not helpful to the reader listening to people argue back and forth when they are looking for sound information. Opinons and concerns should be posted here.

I apologize for my last post in the model thread. I know the rules, but quite honestly. with all the discussion on who was panicing about a threat of a landfall, I forgot it was the model thread, and thought I was in the discussion thread. My bad.

I did the same thing. I need to keep tabs on my open tabs! I have both the discussion and model forums open and have inadvertently crossed the streams a few times.

That being said, the mods have taken care of it, the word has been given and received and everyone complaining about it needs to let it go now. Sometimes, I notice a tendency to be impatient or even unkind to newbies and those of us who aren't as technically skilled (or in my case, totally clueless). It would be rather sad if folks felt unwelcome or were too intimidated to participate in the forums (in the proper threads, of course). The incredible membership and management of Storm2k have taught me so much over the years and I'd like to feel welcome here for many years to come.

[sponger]

UKMET still hating on Florida! 144 hours!


https://www.google.com/maps/place/29%C2 ... .9!4d-80.9

[Weatherboy1]

Yeah, I don't know what the UK has against us here in Florida. But it seems every other model cycle, the UKMET decides to show a direct hit or very close pass on the Florida east coast. Will have to see if any other models confirm (but so far, most don't).

[nativefloridian]

Having been here for 8 years now, it's funny to see the same arguments tossed back and forth during each big storm.

[NDG]

Based on recon data thus far, I'd be comfortable dropping the intensity down to 115 kt. Maybe even 110 kt due to SFMR being lower than the standard .9 reduction from flight level thus far.

No lower than 115 knots, IMO.

Code: Select all

Significant Wind Levels
Level   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
960mb (Surface)   40° (from the NE)   115 knots (132 mph)
958mb   40° (from the NE)   117 knots (135 mph)
953mb   50° (from the NE)   131 knots (151 mph)
950mb   50° (from the NE)   135 knots (155 mph)
940mb   55° (from the NE)   124 knots (143 mph)
907mb   75° (from the ENE)   132 knots (152 mph)
896mb   80° (from the E)   140 knots (161 mph)
886mb   80° (from the E)   127 knots (146 mph)
881mb   85° (from the E)   137 knots (158 mph)
874mb   90° (from the E)   124 knots (143 mph)
858mb   100° (from the E)   125 knots (144 mph)
850mb   100° (from the E)   121 knots (139 mph)
696mb   150° (from the SSE)   111 knots (128 mph)

[Kazmit]

The NHC doesn't forecast any restrengthening from Matt. After the ERC is complete, won't it strengthen before landfall in Haiti/Cuba?

[1900hurricane]

Based on recon data thus far, I'd be comfortable dropping the intensity down to 115 kt. Maybe even 110 kt due to SFMR being lower than the standard .9 reduction from flight level thus far.

No lower than 115 knots, IMO.

Code: Select all

Significant Wind Levels
Level   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
960mb (Surface)   40° (from the NE)   115 knots (132 mph)
958mb   40° (from the NE)   117 knots (135 mph)
953mb   50° (from the NE)   131 knots (151 mph)
950mb   50° (from the NE)   135 knots (155 mph)
940mb   55° (from the NE)   124 knots (143 mph)
907mb   75° (from the ENE)   132 knots (152 mph)
896mb   80° (from the E)   140 knots (161 mph)
886mb   80° (from the E)   127 knots (146 mph)
881mb   85° (from the E)   137 knots (158 mph)
874mb   90° (from the E)   124 knots (143 mph)
858mb   100° (from the E)   125 knots (144 mph)
850mb   100° (from the E)   121 knots (139 mph)
696mb   150° (from the SSE)   111 knots (128 mph)

Hadn't looked at the dropsondes yet. Yeah, with that drop, nothing below 115 kt. We have at least one more pass coming too, so we'll have to see if that changes anything.

[MetroMike]

12z GFS is still showing the same solution near Florida that it has shown on and off for last several days. Nothing too dramatic here to Really get this board ablaze.

[Hurricaneman]

The north turn looks to have begun

[gatorcane]

UKMET still hating on Florida! 144 hours!


https://www.google.com/maps/place/29%C2 ... .9!4d-80.9

Stop it UKMET!

[mrbagyo]

Mike Theiss is going to chase this one in CUBA. Wow

[blp]

That UKmet position looks similar to yesterdays 12z back west from the 00z.

[MetroMike]

UKMET still hating on Florida! 144 hours!


https://www.google.com/maps/place/29%C2 ... .9!4d-80.9

Stop it UKMET!

What is that link? small point indicator off the coast

[psyclone]

Matthew may very well do what many major hurricanes do that have been around for awhile and undergo internal changes that lower the max intensity but increase the extent of the windfield including the radii of hurricane force winds (Remember when Wilma dumped her tiny eye and got a huge eye worthy of a picnic?). that's a really good bet after land interaction with the Greater Antilles but since he appears in no hurry to move it might happen (at least to some extent) before land interaction. If you think all this waiting is torture on the Eastern seaboard just imagine how folks in Jamaica/eastern Cuba/Haiti feel? I'm reminded of the Seinfeld episode...Just dip the chip and end it!

[LarryWx]

The north turn looks to have begun

I don't know. Maybe but it looks like it may be about to loop back to the NW at least temporarily.

[Blown Away]

Now that Matt seems to have started this N turn, I'm betting the NHC will be more confident in the long term and rule out Florida in the 4-5 day window...

[pcolaman]

The north turn looks to have begun

Again wobble to the wnw

[AdamFirst]

Mike Theiss is going to chase this one in CUBA. Wow

Only possible because of current administration...I hope he has up to date maps