ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

What exactly does "pumping the ridge" mean & what does it mean as far as track for Matthew & the U.S?

It means Matthew may be providing enough heat content into the upper atmosphere that it is reinforcing the ridge. Amplifies the ridge.

Edit: whoops, words matter.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, Governor Rick Scott has urged all South Florida residents to prepare for Hurricane Matthew

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note this bouy is likely to take a direct hit..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[AdamFirst]

FWIW, Governor Rick Scott has urged all South Florida residents to prepare for Hurricane Matthew

Precautionary for now...still a long way's out

[BobHarlem]

Watching the loops, it looks as if it's going to cross 75W around 14.5N

[La Sirena]

Watching the loops, it looks as if it's going to cross 45W around 14.5N

75 W you mean?

[CrazyC83]

I agree that a return to Cat 5 should be forecasted for late tonight or tomorrow. How high does it peak though?

[BobHarlem]

Watching the loops, it looks as if it's going to cross 45W around 14.5N

75 W you mean?

yep, too quick, I fixed it already, but 75W.

[La Sirena]

Watching the loops, it looks as if it's going to cross 45W around 14.5N

75 W you mean?

yep, too quick, I fixed it already, but 75W.

Was just hoping I hadn't misread something lol!

I've been watching the loop and its sooooo very close.

[Aric Dunn]

back to west motion lol.. every little bit brings every so close to Jamaica

[TexasF6]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[WPBWeather]

Can they/do they ever rerun models before the next regular run?

[tolakram]

Can they/do they ever rerun models before the next regular run?

I've never witnessed it.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/782641293000343552




The suspect ECMWF initializations for #Matthew continue. Affects model intensity in short term. May not affect track that much.

[Aric Dunn]

Can they/do they ever rerun models before the next regular run?

I've never witnessed it.

maybe internally but I have never seen it publicly

[LarryWx]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather
Service.

No, it initialized just fine near 14.2N, 74.6W.

[wxmann_91]

Can they/do they ever rerun models before the next regular run?

No. It takes several hours to generate model output. If you reran a model run, you'd put the timely output of the next run at risk.

[AutoPenalti]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I questioned this yesterday afternoon and someone told me that it does nothing to the model guidance. Doesn't seem to be the case with the EURO though, lol.

[LarryWx]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I questioned this yesterday afternoon and someone told me that it does nothing to the model guidance. Doesn't seem to be the case with the EURO though, lol.

No, it initialized just fine near 14.2N, 74.6W.

[AutoPenalti]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I questioned this yesterday afternoon and someone told me that it does nothing to the model guidance. Doesn't seem to be the case with the EURO though, lol.

No, it initialized just fine near 14.2N, 74.6W.

Oh okay good to hear.