ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

do look going get close to Jamaica and thinking last night?

[Nimbus]

FWIW, Governor Rick Scott has urged all South Florida residents to prepare for Hurricane Matthew

Mathew is done with the ERC and has a larger eye now which means wider wind fields and more outflow volume to pump the ridge.

My bias has been thinking about a track closer to Kingston but Jamaica is a small island and God forbid they evacuate everybody to the west end of the island and it makes landfall there.

Initial motion has been pretty clear since this morning but you would expect at least some more poleward motion now that the eye is clear and re-intensification is more likely.

[terstorm1012]

do look going get close to Jamaica and thinking last night?

yes, every hour it spends going west means it will move closer to Jamaica. I originally thought it'd go right over it, near to or east of Kingston.

In the long term, despite the wide spread in the models in the long term, the track looks a bit Hazel-like. It's kind of eerie. I'm going to spend some time with the 1954 data to see what the weather was like for the week before Hazel came ashore in NC/SC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Watching the stair-stepping is killing my eyes. Gonna take a break from Matthew for a few hours, should be a fun evening.

[stormreader]

So the euro thinks Matthew's "blob" was his center and initilized there? Wow. All guards should be up from Florida and the EC.

Is this true! Saw someone else say it, too. Seems inexcusable! If true, then I would think a correct initialization on the next run could bring about a very strong shift west.






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[fci]

do look going get close to Jamaica and thinking last night?

yes, every hour it spends going west means it will move closer to Jamaica. I originally thought it'd go right over it, near to or east of Kingston.

In the long term, despite the wide spread in the models in the long term, the track looks a bit Hazel-like. It's kind of eerie. I'm going to spend some time with the 1954 data to see what the weather was like for the week before Hazel came ashore in NC/SC.

NHC had the track over Eastern Jamaica for a while but in last couple of days that has not been the case at all.

[chaser1]

For what its worth, it seems that the weak flow between a weakened ridge to the north and a weak trough supposedly developing over the Gulf should be imparting a more northerly component in Matthew's track. Obviously that is the thinking by nearly all the models and the official forecast track. If the outflow from Matthew were actually accentuating the ridge to its north, there then remains the question regarding the evolution of this other feature from the Gulf. Looking at todays' 12Z NAM run (here, http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... 00_spd.gif ), it would seem that the point where the greatest degree of influence should occur between Monday - Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter this feature appears to wash out entirely while at least slight ridging builds to the east and north of Matthew. What I am beginning to become slightly more concerned about is the possibility (and model implication) that steering around the Florida Straits and W. Bahamas might nearly break down for perhaps 24 hours or so.

Present motion certainly does seem to play into Matthew's upstream track and location. Looks to still be moving generally northwest now. From how I analyze the trending wind charts I think Matthew will reach at least 76W while south of Jamaica before then turning north (or perhaps a hair W. of north). My best guess is that the track will eventually have to be nudged westward though probably not hitting Florida. Problem is that a track that might take the storm over Andros Island in the Bahamas, is scarily close assuming we're talking about a major hurricane. Depending on timing, hopefully any stall might occur shortly after crossing Cuba (though a horrific thought for those in the SW Bahamas!). I think Matthew will take a track extremely similar to the latest run of the UK model and bringing the storm a very short distance from W. Palm Beach and points just north of there, before likely pulling more north and NNE. Depending on whether the storm get that far west, and then the steering at the time, it seems that reaching the Outer Banks is going to be an extremely close call.

[floridasun78]

do look going get close to Jamaica and thinking last night?

yes, every hour it spends going west means it will move closer to Jamaica. I originally thought it'd go right over it, near to or east of Kingston.

In the long term, despite the wide spread in the models in the long term, the track looks a bit Hazel-like. It's kind of eerie. I'm going to spend some time with the 1954 data to see what the weather was like for the week before Hazel came ashore in NC/SC.

NHC had the track over Eastern Jamaica for a while but in last couple of days that has not been the case at all.

maybe i wrong i didnt stay holiday inn but look wont going western Haiti like their say at 11pm and 5am and 11am

[msbee]

yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?

[psyclone]

I have read plenty of posts coaxing this storm much farther west (closer to or toward Florida) for days...and yet...when one steps back and looks at the NHC tracks during that timeframe...not so much. So whether it's "wobbling west" "missing it's next point" or "pumping the ridge" (my fav)...take a deep breath and carefully watch the NHC forecasts. and remember...there are multiple scenarios that spare florida but only one that drills the state (a significant left shift)...possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Continued happy watching.

[smithtim]

This makes me imagine...before the satellite era, how did people find out of incoming hurricanes?

You just had to be knowledgeable and truly understand what changing winds & gradients meant...basically all you had was real time reports from various locations & the forecasters put "big picture" together...there's an awesome story about the weather forecaster in Galveston when that famous storm hit there in 1900!!!!

IMHO we've become to dependent upon models, satellite images etc etc and often forget the big picture... e.g. Matthew rapid intensification a few days back - common sense "big picture" understanding saw that coming, just like a lot of concern that this storm may not be passing FLa down to 110-120mph but rather still solid possibility cat 4???

[AtlanticWind]

yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?

The cone is where the center is likely to go ,effects can be felt well outside the cone.

[LarryWx]

Based on the current loop, I'm guessing he will go near 15N, 75W, then moving between NNW and due north.

[JaxGator]

yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?

If the cone holds true (and since the hurricane is growing in size), they should get some effects. My guess is TS-Cat 1 winds unless there is a westward shift in the track.

[fci]

yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?

The cone is where the center is likely to go ,effects can be felt well outside the cone.

And thus the Hurricane Warnings for Jamaica.

[ronjon]

I have read plenty of posts coaxing this storm much farther west (closer to or toward Florida) for days...and yet...when one steps back and looks at the NHC tracks during that timeframe...not so much. So whether it's "wobbling west" "missing it's next point" or "pumping the ridge" (my fav)...take a deep breath and carefully watch the NHC forecasts. and remember...there are multiple scenarios that spare florida but only one that drills the state (a significant left shift)...possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Continued happy watching.

I agree psyclone but I think in this case people are more than normally on edge because we're dealing with a monster CAT 4 and there are plenty on this board that remember Wilma. We really only have the UKMET that brings it to the east coast of florida and if it has a bias, it's to having too much ridging. Until we see GFS and ECM head that way...It's watch and wait time.

[Sanibel]

Breaking out of near stall and going close to NHC N track...

[tolakram]

Moving into some hot water.

Ocean Heat Content

[SapphireSea]

I have read plenty of posts coaxing this storm much farther west (closer to or toward Florida) for days...and yet...when one steps back and looks at the NHC tracks during that timeframe...not so much. So whether it's "wobbling west" "missing it's next point" or "pumping the ridge" (my fav)...take a deep breath and carefully watch the NHC forecasts. and remember...there are multiple scenarios that spare florida but only one that drills the state (a significant left shift)...possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Continued happy watching.

The forecast has thus far been very low confidence. This is why everyone needs to be on heightened alert and why some action has been taken in FL. Until the storm is moving faster than 5kt it will continue to be low confidence. Also ridge pumping does exist, and is very poorly forecasted by models still. That said NHC has the best track that is processed by seasoned veterans, and holds much weight. But remember to look at the cone and not the line, yadda yadda. In any case a slower movement above 15N favors the recurve.

[Cainer]

When's the next RECON mission heading in?