Nimbus wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:FWIW, Governor Rick Scott has urged all South Florida residents to prepare for Hurricane Matthew
Mathew is done with the ERC and has a larger eye now which means wider wind fields and more outflow volume to pump the ridge.
My bias has been thinking about a track closer to Kingston but Jamaica is a small island and God forbid they evacuate everybody to the west end of the island and it makes landfall there.
Initial motion has been pretty clear since this morning but you would expect at least some more poleward motion now that the eye is clear and re-intensification is more likely.
Over the last several years, the NHC has got quite proficient at forecasting the tracks of storms. As such, I think it's center will pass far enough to the east of Jamaica that they may well get only hurricane force
gusts, as opposed to sustained hurricane winds. Also, I wouldn't exactly classify Jamaica as a small island, and its western areas are unlikely to experience anything more than tropical storm force winds.