ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3641 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:last two frames showing yet another westerly motion.. only mentioning the wabbles ( which I rarely do) but getting awfully close to Jamaica.


Based on the latest image, Matthew is crossing 75N now (or will be in the next frame or so).

I'm not that convinced of a strong NNE movement.... seems like the push to the west has always been underestimated, why should an eastern portion emerge soon? I understand synoptically why the models are suggesting that juke, but the models have been trash all week.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3642 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:47 pm

Here's something to lighten the mood from Jamaica.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdcsozmJ750
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3643 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:47 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:last two frames showing yet another westerly motion.. only mentioning the wabbles ( which I rarely do) but getting awfully close to Jamaica.


Based on the latest image, Matthew is crossing 75N now (or will be in the next frame or so).

I'm not that convinced of a strong NNE movement.... seems like the push to the west has always been underestimated, why should an eastern portion emerge soon? I understand synoptically why the models are suggesting that juke, but the models have been trash all week.

Almost all season they have been trash. Or at least not as good as last year.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3644 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:49 pm

This is looking very very bad for the entire Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3645 Postby bg1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:49 pm

baitism wrote:Wasn't there a hurricane a few years ago that started and EWRC and never really got out of it?


Oh, look, I think Irene '11 just started another cycle
...

I wonder if the same will happen with Matthew. ..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3646 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:This is looking very very bad for the entire Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.


I'd rather the worst be over the Tiburon Peninsula instead of getting into Port Au Prince or Gonaives
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3647 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:52 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:This is looking very very bad for the entire Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.


I'd rather the worst be over the Tiburon Peninsula instead of getting into Port Au Prince or Gonaives


Yeah. Looks like Port-au-Prince may avoid major hurricane winds, but the standard mudslide issue will be bad.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3648 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:53 pm

nativefloridian wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:This is inching closer and closer to Jamaica.

Updated Steering levels:

Image



Would be interested in knowing what your thoughts are on this. :)


With Charley off the west coast of Florida there was a low that split and brought him in south of the forecast landfall in the Tampa bay area.

Maybe some of the models will do something with it or there will be a mention in a future advisory?
Hurricanes naturally try to climb poleward so I'm kind of leary of that Australian solution but there might be enough of a steering change to be significant.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3649 Postby WPBWeather » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:55 pm

Nimbus wrote:
nativefloridian wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:This is inching closer and closer to Jamaica.

Updated Steering levels:

Image



Would be interested in knowing what your thoughts are on this. :)


With Charley off the west coast of Florida there was a low that split and brought him in south of the forecast landfall in the Tampa bay area.

Maybe some of the models will do something with it or there will be a mention in a future advisory?
Hurricanes naturally try to climb poleward so I'm kind of leary of that Australian solution but there might be enough of a steering change to be significant.


If that Aussie model works, what a coup that would be!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3650 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:58 pm

Image
Looks like WNW to me and at 75W...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3651 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:59 pm

nice westerly turn right off the bat away from the 5pm track.. its moving away almost perpendicular to the track lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3652 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:03 pm

It looks like it was heading to the NW and then toward the end almost turned due W? Crossing 75W around 14.5N (I posted this morning of it kept its WNW-NW motion, it would cross around 14.3N...only off by 0.2N)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3653 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:05 pm

Nimbus wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:FWIW, Governor Rick Scott has urged all South Florida residents to prepare for Hurricane Matthew


Mathew is done with the ERC and has a larger eye now which means wider wind fields and more outflow volume to pump the ridge.

My bias has been thinking about a track closer to Kingston but Jamaica is a small island and God forbid they evacuate everybody to the west end of the island and it makes landfall there.

Initial motion has been pretty clear since this morning but you would expect at least some more poleward motion now that the eye is clear and re-intensification is more likely.

Over the last several years, the NHC has got quite proficient at forecasting the tracks of storms. As such, I think it's center will pass far enough to the east of Jamaica that they may well get only hurricane force gusts, as opposed to sustained hurricane winds. Also, I wouldn't exactly classify Jamaica as a small island, and its western areas are unlikely to experience anything more than tropical storm force winds.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3654 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:08 pm

only has to get to 76 to put eastern part of Jamaica in the EYEwall
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3655 Postby oceanbrz312 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:This is looking very very bad for the entire Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.
. I am sorry if I am posting in the wrong forum please feel free to delete. But I was visiting a friend in the hospital today. I spoke to 2 aides who are from Haiti. They said they called relatives in Haiti and warned them of the storm. According to them Haitians don't get storm warnings from their government. Is this true? Thank you.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3656 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:13 pm

18Z GFS shifting east...expect that to continue.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3657 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:13 pm

GFS continues the trend of keeping the storm away from the US. Other models are following as well. Living here in NC I like what I see so far. Hopefully it will miss Jamaica and Haiti as well and shoot the gap. Praying for those in the path. :cry:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3658 Postby sponger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:14 pm

Solidly WNW. This may get a lot closer to Jamaica than forecast trek suggests.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3659 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:15 pm

msbee wrote:yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?

That's been my thinking for the couple of days, but I think it was wise of their government not to downgrade the hurricane warning to a hurricane watch, then find themselves having to switch it back to a warning at short notice, should the track shift westward (unlikely but possible). That would likely cause confusion among the populace.
Last edited by abajan on Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3660 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:17 pm

sponger wrote:Solidly WNW. This may get a lot closer to Jamaica than forecast trek suggests.


Yes I agree, and it would seem to me, ( although im no pro) that every tick west it goes away from the NHC projected path...these models will have to adjust westward to account for that in the future. I guess we will see in the next day or so.
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