ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3661 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:17 pm

brunota2003 wrote:It looks like it was heading to the NW and then toward the end almost turned due W? Crossing 75W around 14.5N (I posted this morning of it kept its WNW-NW motion, it would cross around 14.3N...only off by 0.2N)

getting past from 75 w not on nhc forecast hope nhc noticing it
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3662 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:17 pm

If this keeps on a wnw track for a little while longer, wouldn't you just throw out all the model solutions due to them possibly being too Far East to begin with
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3663 Postby Sav_hurricane_hunter » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:18 pm

Asking for understanding. I keep seeing this "heading west" thrown out there so is it actually or is it wobbling as storms do and not actually heading west or heading west "long enough/far enough" to make a difference to the track of Matthew? I feel like all this "heading west" isnt actually doing that but small wobbles insignificant to Matthews track but the people I disagree with & westcasters are seeing a "west heading" so they can complain how NHC was wrong & how Fl are going to be caught off guard
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3664 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:18 pm

SeGaBob wrote:18Z GFS shifting east...expect that to continue.

18z wrong it now past 75w it more west
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3665 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:18 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
sponger wrote:Solidly WNW. This may get a lot closer to Jamaica than forecast trek suggests.


Yes I agree, and it would seem to me, ( although im no pro) that every tick west it goes away from the NHC projected path...these models will have to adjust westward to account for that in the future. I guess we will see in the next day or so.


Maybe next 3 days or so... after that this current westerly motion won't matter much.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3666 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:20 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Still no obvious secondary eyewall on SW side of the storm yet:

Image

Pretty remarkable that the small inner-core has been able to hold steady for this long.

I actually am wondering if the northwestern portion of the eyewall is falling back and melding with the banding behind it, forming a new slightly larger eyewall.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3667 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:20 pm

SeGaBob wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
sponger wrote:Solidly WNW. This may get a lot closer to Jamaica than forecast trek suggests.


Yes I agree, and it would seem to me, ( although im no pro) that every tick west it goes away from the NHC projected path...these models will have to adjust westward to account for that in the future. I guess we will see in the next day or so.


Maybe next 3 days or so... after that this current westerly motion won't matter much.


The more west it goes the more time it gives the trough coming from the west to scoop it out to sea. At least it seems that way.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3668 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:24 pm

Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:Asking for understanding. I keep seeing this "heading west" thrown out there so is it actually or is it wobbling as storms do and not actually heading west or heading west "long enough/far enough" to make a difference to the track of Matthew? I feel like all this "heading west" isnt actually doing that but small wobbles insignificant to Matthews track but the people I disagree with & westcasters are seeing a "west heading" so they can complain how NHC was wrong & how Fl are going to be caught off guard


I don't think any of us are "-removed-" anything. We are merely watching the satellite presentation and movement, and how it is moving farther West than projected at this time on this date, and how that may affect the eventual track over parts of jamaica perhaps, Haiti and Cuba. When it emerges into the Bahamas, seems to me the ridge to the north ( and how strong it is at that time, or becomes soon after) will determine how close the storm comes to the East Coast, whether its Florida, or points farther North.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3669 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:24 pm

Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:Asking for understanding. I keep seeing this "heading west" thrown out there so is it actually or is it wobbling as storms do and not actually heading west or heading west "long enough/far enough" to make a difference to the track of Matthew? I feel like all this "heading west" isnt actually doing that but small wobbles insignificant to Matthews track but the people I disagree with & westcasters are seeing a "west heading" so they can complain how NHC was wrong & how Fl are going to be caught off guard


I'm not sure what the purpose of this post is, but go ahead and take a look at the heading in Vis/WV. Clearly going more west than the OFCL track thus far; Is it significant? Maybe, maybe not, although the distance to Jamaica and timing makes it alarming. The objects that will force this due North -still- do not really exist yet. Infact we now have an anomalous upper level low flow off Yucatan that may change things, especially if Matthew starts to increase forward motion AWAY from the OFCL plot. Models are NOT defacto law, they are GUIDANCE. They are very good when synoptics are clear-cut and storm motion is fast, generally in cases where if they were down for a day or two it would make very little difference to forecasting skill. (Although Long Term forecast would be somewhat affected).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3670 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:25 pm

At this point, I can't trust any models until it's past Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3671 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:27 pm

Great news for the US at least as models are clearly trending towards a recurve well offshore and I really think the slower timing of Matthew had a lot to do with it. Euro is so slow that Matthew gets temporarily left behind before another trough can scoop him up.

Will this change in the coming days? Maybe but things are looking better and better. Unfortunately I can't say the same for a lot of these islands as they will get dealt a major blow from Jamaica to Haiti to the Bahamas.

Bahamas may really get thrashed about as Matthew will traverse across a majority of those islands.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3672 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:27 pm

Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:Asking for understanding. I keep seeing this "heading west" thrown out there so is it actually or is it wobbling as storms do and not actually heading west or heading west "long enough/far enough" to make a difference to the track of Matthew? I feel like all this "heading west" isnt actually doing that but small wobbles insignificant to Matthews track but the people I disagree with & westcasters are seeing a "west heading" so they can complain how NHC was wrong & how Fl are going to be caught off guard


People are discussing track and movement, there's nothing wrong with that and no need to call names. It's nearly stationary again or wobbling, so I also don't think the west movement is a big deal. The NHC is very clear that the track line should not be followed, predicting the exact path of a hurricane is near impossible.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3673 Postby stormreader » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:27 pm

Image
I'd call it 14.6 and right at 75.0. Still a very considerable W component.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3674 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:28 pm

oceanbrz312 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:This is looking very very bad for the entire Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.
. I am sorry if I am posting in the wrong forum please feel free to delete. But I was visiting a friend in the hospital today. I spoke to 2 aides who are from Haiti. They said they called relatives in Haiti and warned them of the storm. According to them Haitians don't get storm warnings from their government. Is this true? Thank you.

That would be quite surprising. I think it's more likely that many Haitians don't have radios or TVs to hear the warnings. Just a guess. By the way, it's the right forum. :wink:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3675 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:At this point, I can't trust any models until it's past Cuba.

Why not? Pretty clear what will happen. (give or take a bit west or east)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3676 Postby blp » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:29 pm

Steering chart continues to tell the story.

Interesting if you use the 250-700 for sub 940mb steering it should follow the models North now. So it is being steered at the 250-850 at the moment.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3677 Postby hohnywx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:33 pm

SeGaBob wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:At this point, I can't trust any models until it's past Cuba.

Why not? Pretty clear what will happen. (give or take a bit west or east)


??

You have the UKMET into Miami, the GFS skirting the coast and the Euro hanging around so long that it could go into the NE after H240. I wouldn't call that pretty clear.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3678 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:34 pm

SeGaBob wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
sponger wrote:Solidly WNW. This may get a lot closer to Jamaica than forecast trek suggests.


Yes I agree, and it would seem to me, ( although im no pro) that every tick west it goes away from the NHC projected path...these models will have to adjust westward to account for that in the future. I guess we will see in the next day or so.


Maybe next 3 days or so... after that this current westerly motion won't matter much.


That's not true...the models show this turning to the NW in the Bahamas..if it has a farther west starting point then the closer to the coast it would get.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3679 Postby Kazmit » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:35 pm

stormreader wrote:Image
I'd call it 14.6 and right at 75.0. Still a very considerable W component.

It's looking impressive right now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3680 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:35 pm

hohnywx wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:At this point, I can't trust any models until it's past Cuba.

Why not? Pretty clear what will happen. (give or take a bit west or east)


??

You have the UKMET into Miami, the GFS skirting the coast and the Euro hanging around so long that it could go into the NE after H240. I wouldn't call that pretty clear.


UKMET has been completely useless. And in Euro's solution, the flow in the midlatitudes is deamplified enough such that a recurve would be inevitable anyway at such high latitudes. GFS is close, but is starting to trend away from the coast. Nobody is 100% safe yet but the picture is starting to become clearer.
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