ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ThetaE]

Here's the 18z GFS' top analog storms (a fun thing to look at, though not necessarily too helpful in complex/unique scenarios like this). None of them are particularly strong analogs, but there are some notable things on it:



The top analog's just ironic (and also way off on intensity), but the second analog...

[hurricaneCW]

If the ridge contInues to trend stronger which has been the case for months hence the NE drought, then Florida and the Carolinas are in a load of trouble.

Floyd broke the droughts in 1999, could Matthew be the next Floyd?

[Ken711]

I'm not convinced this goes OTS, latest GFS has a much weaker trough off the New England Coast by Oct.5th and the Trough in the upper plains further north looking more like the energy there heads up into Canada. I think there is a real possibility that ridging builds back from the Atlantic back into the Mid-Atlantic to New England and Mathew gets trapped.

I think the 12z ECM Operational is onto something with that!

I hope that's not the case.

[sandy18]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas
What do you mean it doesn't look good for the Carolinas? looks like it is staying off shore or am I not looking at something right?

[pgoss11]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas
What do you mean it doesn't look good for the Carolinas? looks like it is staying off shore or am I not looking at something right?

Quite a few of the 00z show a slight west bend at the end of the run. It most likely won't affect the Carolinas directly but it really is still too soon to tell.

[otterlyspicey]

00z models show the westward jog...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

Doesn't look too good for the Carolinas
What do you mean it doesn't look good for the Carolinas? looks like it is staying off shore or am I not looking at something right?

Yeah I see a lot of paths heading east of the Carolinas in that run. Who knows what the next ones will show!

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM which uses NCEP data the GFS uses already shows a stronger Bermuda High from the 18Z run right off the bat at hour 0. I wonder if the NHC is putting more data into the models? Also might this mean yet another slight west shift with the 00Z GFS?

[sunnyday]

East, west, left, right.....Look at everyone so concerned for their safety and having no idea what is going to happen, when, or where. If only we had something reliable enough to let us know 4 or 5 days out what was about to happen. It takes a while to put up shutters and make final preparations for a monster storm! And the evacuation could turn into a huge gridlock if the people weren't notified in time.....
It's really scary to be told after one model run that the storm is going more east and then the very next run, we are told it is going west.
I'm sure the NHC is working hard and doing its best. It's just an uneasy feeling to be this close to a giant hurricane and feel like the future is so uncertain.....

[terstorm1012]

this link explains BAMD for those looking at it: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/252 ... ams-model/ and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml .

[sunnyday]

I apologize. My previous post should have been put in the discussion section. My error...

[SouthFLTropics]

00Z NAM which uses NCEP data the GFS uses already shows a stronger Bermuda High from the 18Z run right off the bat. I wonder if the data NHC is collecting is going into the models! Also might this mean yet another slight west shift with the 00Z GFS?

I think Matthew's current trend of more of a SW heading is clearly showing us that the high is stronger than the models of a few days ago were showing. With that said go back and take a look at the 12z run of the Euro from Tuesday. While the intensity is off the track looks really accurate.

[Ken711]

00Z NAM which uses NCEP data the GFS uses already shows a stronger Bermuda High from the 18Z run right off the bat at hour 00. I wonder if the data NHC is collecting is going into the models? Also might this mean yet another slight west shift with the 00Z GFS?

I hope that doesn't close off an escape to remain off shore.

[SouthFLTropics]

East, west, left, right.....Look at everyone so concerned for their safety and having no idea what is going to happen, when, or where. If only we had something reliable enough to let us know 4 or 5 days out what was about to happen. It takes a while to put up shutters and make final preparations for a monster storm! And the evacuation could turn into a huge gridlock if the people weren't notified in time.....
It's really scary to be told after one model run that the storm is going more east and then the very next run, we are told it is going west.
I'm sure the NHC is working hard and doing its best. It's just an uneasy feeling to be this close to a giant hurricane and feel like the future is so uncertain.....

Evacuation of South Florida from an approaching major from the South is a nightmare scenario. Contra flow would have to be implemented in order to try and move that many people out.

[TheStormExpert]

00Z NAM which uses NCEP data the GFS uses already shows a stronger Bermuda High from the 18Z run right off the bat at hour 0. I wonder if the NHC is putting more data into the models? Also might this mean yet another slight west shift with the 00Z GFS?

I honestly hope there are no more west trends.

[centuryv58]

East, west, left, right.....Look at everyone so concerned for their safety and having no idea what is going to happen, when, or where. If only we had something reliable enough to let us know 4 or 5 days out what was about to happen. It takes a while to put up shutters and make final preparations for a monster storm! And the evacuation could turn into a huge gridlock if the people weren't notified in time.....
It's really scary to be told after one model run that the storm is going more east and then the very next run, we are told it is going west.
I'm sure the NHC is working hard and doing its best. It's just an uneasy feeling to be this close to a giant hurricane and feel like the future is so uncertain.....

Evacuation of South Florida from an approaching major from the South is a nightmare scenario. Contra flow would have to be implemented in order to try and move that many people out.

I believe the current plans are for those not on the coast or in flood areas to shelter in place.

[wxman57]

Most of those models listed at 00Z are pretty bad. You certainly don't want to use the BAM models. LBAR is terrible, OCD5 is climo-based, and the Navy variations of the GFDL are terrible. Of the models there, the TVCA (consensus model) is the best. It's also well east of the other (bad) models. HWRF has been quite inconsistent and can't be trusted. The AVNI is based on the 18Z GFS. Real 00Z models won't come in for 2-4 hours.

[Michele B]

East, west, left, right.....Look at everyone so concerned for their safety and having no idea what is going to happen, when, or where. If only we had something reliable enough to let us know 4 or 5 days out what was about to happen. It takes a while to put up shutters and make final preparations for a monster storm! And the evacuation could turn into a huge gridlock if the people weren't notified in time.....
It's really scary to be told after one model run that the storm is going more east and then the very next run, we are told it is going west.
I'm sure the NHC is working hard and doing its best. It's just an uneasy feeling to be this close to a giant hurricane and feel like the future is so uncertain.....

Agreed. Strange weather systems making it harder to predict with any accuracy on some storms (seems more often that not that this is the case).

Already thinking here of what might be needed to do if this thing makes some strange and unexpected track changes in the next day or two....

[robbielyn]

if it helps any no hurricane has made landfall on the peninsula in this timeframe ever. climo suggests offshore of fl and out to sea or obx. only western panhandle has been hit before.

[floridasun78]

hi all here miami weather man from wfor saying if staert moving north on sat will be good if starting moving west on sunday ok now we maybe say we need watch mattew like hawk because will move west part Jamaica or thru center part islands good blrss them this hurr

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Most of those models listed at 00Z are pretty bad. You certainly don't want to use the BAM models. LBAR is terrible, OCD5 is climo-based, and the Navy variations of the GFDL are terrible. Of the models there, the TVCA (consensus model) is the best. It's also well east of the other (bad) models. HWRF has been quite inconsistent and can't be trusted. The AVNI is based on the 18Z GFS. Real 00Z models won't come in for 2-4 hours.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

But the GFS is a very good model, maybe the best at this point and has been remarkably consistent with this storm. It has been trending west and is now less then 150 miles off Florida. Any thoughts?