ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

only way anyone learns is to ask so THAT was the point of my origional post. With that said on another forum it was said that movement has to be more than just 2 or3 frames for it to be actual movement & not just wobbles. I'm asking is the westward movement others are seeing several frames and is that what the difference is between a wobble & actual movement?

Understandable, thus far for the last 9 hours or so its been averaging a NW with NNW and WNW wobbles. The forecast by the easternmost models are to have this due N and even NNE right now. So the motion of right now is not a wobble it is fairly established but slow. Looking at WV loops of the overall scale you can see why it continues to head NW against the better guidance. However the high to the east is indeed retreating if I am seeing it right. I expect a N turn to happen within 12 hours. Everyone in EC FL up needs to keep a close eye on this until it moves.

[SeGaBob]

At this point, I can't trust any models until it's past Cuba.

Why not? Pretty clear what will happen. (give or take a bit west or east)

??

You have the UKMET into Miami, the GFS skirting the coast and the Euro hanging around so long that it could go into the NE after H240. I wouldn't call that pretty clear.

First, NHC considers the UKMET a outlier, Gfs having a storm 200 miles off the coast is not skirting, and the Euro is just horrible.

No need to be defensive...

[sponger]

Asking for understanding. I keep seeing this "heading west" thrown out there so is it actually or is it wobbling as storms do and not actually heading west or heading west "long enough/far enough" to make a difference to the track of Matthew? I feel like all this "heading west" isnt actually doing that but small wobbles insignificant to Matthews track but the people I disagree with & westcasters are seeing a "west heading" so they can complain how NHC was wrong & how Fl are going to be caught off guard

The current NW track is obvious and undeniable. It will have minimal impact on track unless it continued through tomorrow. It is about 15 miles off forecast and it needs to come 100 miles West to impact Florida based on current forecast.

[tolakram]

Let's take a few steps back please.

No need to get overly defensive or upset if folks disagree. I would also remind some of the newer posters that we do not tolerate name calling here, ever. Please be considerate!

[Bocadude85]

Personally I am fairly certain this will stay off the coast of Florida, but I am watching the wobbles west because the closer to the coast it gets the more squalls/winds Florida will experience.

[Rail Dawg]

For those that have been to Jamaica and Haiti many people there live in nothing more than tin shacks.

Some of the friendliest people especially the Jamaicans who don't realize that their life is all that bad. And in many ways they have us beat.

If this slams the island as a Cat 4-5 it is going to be catastrophic.

I tried to pick up one of the last commercial flights (an airline pilot now) into Jamaica before the storm hits just to help bring in what I could.

These people have a scary couple days ahead.

[ozonepete]

If this keeps on a wnw track for a little while longer, wouldn't you just throw out all the model solutions due to them possibly being too Far East to begin with

Replacing them with?

[hohnywx]

Why not? Pretty clear what will happen. (give or take a bit west or east)

??

You have the UKMET into Miami, the GFS skirting the coast and the Euro hanging around so long that it could go into the NE after H240. I wouldn't call that pretty clear.

First, NHC considers the UKMET a outlier, Gfs having a storm 200 miles off the coast is not skirting, and the Euro is just horrible.

No need to be defensive...

Disagreeing does not equal defensive...

Thanks to wxmann_91 for the information. The Euro has been the best with the storm thus far (contrary to what has been posted by some on this site). I wouldn't call it "horrible".

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

Thank you to posters answered my queston & didnt attack me but dont want me to attack others?. I am trying to get an understanding of weather thats all

[abajan]

Here's something to lighten the mood from Jamaica.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdcsozmJ750

Too funny, man. Weird as heck too.

[tolakram]

Thanks to wxmann_91 for the information. The Euro has been the best with the storm thus far (contrary to what has been posted by some on this site). I wouldn't call it "horrible".

Except that it is not true the euro has been better. In some ways yes, in some ways no. It continues to underestimate the strength of the storm which may or may not end up influencing the track. There's a lot more to models than simply winning or losing, which is why many of us get so frustrated when people focus on what model is doing a better job. The blend wins in the end, without the blend of the top models this would be much harder to forecast.

[ozonepete]

Thanks to wxmann_91 for the information. The Euro has been the best with the storm thus far (contrary to what has been posted by some on this site). I wouldn't call it "horrible".

Except that it is not true the euro has been better. In some ways yes, in some ways no. It continues to underestimate the strength of the storm which may or may not end up influencing the track. There's a lot more to models than simply winning or losing, which is why many of us get so frustrated when people focus on what model is doing a better job. The blend wins in the end, without the blend of the top models this would be much harder to forecast.

Oh man how happy I am you posted that. For most storms, and specifically on this one, no model has done nearly as well overall since the start on track and speed as the blend up to this point. GFS and Euro keep competing for both best and worst at the same time. The consensus will almost always win out for the first 1-3 days. Go check the records.

[Evil Jeremy]

I vote we rename Matthew "Hurricane Migraine"

[ozonepete]

Lol. I second it.

[AdamFirst]

How large could the wind field of Matthew's expand after land interaction?

[tolakram]

IR loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[sponger]

WW3 keeping it offshore of NC! It is close though.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

[fci]

Well I for one say a hearty THANK YOU for reigning in those who look at every little wobble and proclaim that the Forecast is wrong, the Models are garbage.....
Often times there is an outlier model or model run.
Let me remind some that the track has been generally correct so far.
Yes, GFS initially had a hard right and a track over the Doninican Republic, and yes; it traveled a LITTLE further South and a LITTLE further West than forecasted
But 25-50 miles either way is pretty inconsequential.

[WPBWeather]

WW3 keeping it offshore of NC! It is close though.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

Destroys NYC again though.

[sponger]

Still looking wnw.