ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hohnywx]

Thanks to wxmann_91 for the information. The Euro has been the best with the storm thus far (contrary to what has been posted by some on this site). I wouldn't call it "horrible".

Except that it is not true the euro has been better. In some ways yes, in some ways no. It continues to underestimate the strength of the storm which may or may not end up influencing the track. There's a lot more to models than simply winning or losing, which is why many of us get so frustrated when people focus on what model is doing a better job. The blend wins in the end, without the blend of the top models this would be much harder to forecast.

With respect, I believe we were talking about track. And as was posted earlier, the Euro has been leading the way:

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/782561582551175169

[Blown Away]

W of forecast point and at 75W...

Argument for due W...

[Sanibel]

Stair-stepping between the trough and Atlantic High in my opinion...

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/30mvbc7.jpg[/ig]
W of forecast point and at 75W...
[img]http://i67.tinypic.com/6698bl.gif[/ig]
Argument for due W...

yeah west of 21z position and at least right now still wnw albeit very slow.. its not north getting ready to turn NE like the models.. they only off by 180 degrees.. lol

[JaxGator]

http://i66.tinypic.com/30mvbc7.jpg
W of forecast point and at 75W...
http://i67.tinypic.com/6698bl.gif
Argument for due W...

Yep, it's close to crossing it. Great pic and loop btw.

[galaxy401]

Looks like it is stalling again. Another loop about to happen?

[ozonepete]

With respect, I believe we were talking about track. And as was posted earlier, the Euro has been leading the way:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/7 ... 2551175169

With all due respect, he cherry picked the dates: from 9/28 to now. If you go back just a couple of days earlier it has no such accuracy. That's the problem with stats.

[Sanibel]

It should loop again and drift North according to NHC track but if it continues WNW that tells you the ridge is stronger than they thought and winning.

[robbielyn]

Looks like it is stalling again. Another loop about to happen?

may be getting to turn north now just means it hit 75W below 15N by going wnw instead of nw. but ive been checking for past hour and it came to a full stop.

[wxman57]

I still think it'll pass far enough east of Florida to keep TS-force winds offshore. Certainly, I don't see anything to suggest hurricane-force winds reaching the eastern Peninsula. The near-term concerns are impacts on Jamaica & Haiti. Haiti may get the worst of Matthew, being right of the track. Beyond eastern Cuba is the Bahamas, which will take a real beating from a very strong (and larger) Matthew.

I'm thinking that the Carolinas will be brushed by 35-50 mph sustained wind with gusts up to 60-70 mph next Saturday - but that's a LONG way off to be very confident in potential impacts. I do think Matthew will make the NE turn before making landfall, but I'd be preparing for the worst if I lived in NC.

[wxman57]

With respect, I believe we were talking about track. And as was posted earlier, the Euro has been leading the way:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/7 ... 2551175169

With all due respect, he cherry picked the dates: from 9/28 to now. If you go back just a couple of days earlier it has no such accuracy. That's the problem with stats.

The EC has been WAY ahead of the GFS for the past week. GFS has been too far north and days too fast. I'm talking about both models' prediction of the track across the Caribbean then north to Haiti and the DR. Beyond then, the EC has jumped around a good bit, but the GFS has been far worse. Overall, my impression is that the EC has been superior to other models as far as forecasts leading up to a possible Haiti landfall tomorrow.

[abajan]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif
I'd call it 14.6 and right at 75.0. Still a very considerable W component.

That image will change with time and will be totally irrelevant to your text within just a few hours from now. That's one of the reasons we're asked to save images to image hosts before posting them.

[O Town]

So he still has this twin to the east.... I find this very intriguing.

[ozonepete]

With respect, I believe we were talking about track. And as was posted earlier, the Euro has been leading the way:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/7 ... 2551175169

With all due respect, he cherry picked the dates: from 9/28 to now. If you go back just a couple of days earlier it has no such accuracy. That's the problem with stats.

The EC has been WAY ahead of the GFS for the past week. GFS has been too far north and days too fast. I'm talking about both models' prediction of the track across the Caribbean then north to Haiti and the DR. Beyond then, the EC has jumped around a good bit, but the GFS has been far worse. Overall, my impression is that the EC has been superior to other models as far as forecasts leading up to a possible Haiti landfall tomorrow.

ECMF had a DR crossing for quite a while. The GFS never did. Show me the data.

[toad strangler]

With respect, I believe we were talking about track. And as was posted earlier, the Euro has been leading the way:

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/7 ... 2551175169

With all due respect, he cherry picked the dates: from 9/28 to now. If you go back just a couple of days earlier it has no such accuracy. That's the problem with stats.

The EC has been WAY ahead of the GFS for the past week. GFS has been too far north and days too fast. I'm talking about both models' prediction of the track across the Caribbean then north to Haiti and the DR. Beyond then, the EC has jumped around a good bit, but the GFS has been far worse. Overall, my impression is that the EC has been superior to other models as far as forecasts leading up to a possible Haiti landfall tomorrow.

Bastardi saying that same thing today. Met consensus

[Aric Dunn]

just from the initial recon.. I would say its down to a cat 3.

[meriland23]

What are the chances Matthew regains cat 5 strength after the islands? Models often project rapid restrengthening while NHC think it is dwindling down now.

[Exalt]

So he still has this twin to the east.... I find this very intriguing.

http://i65.tinypic.com/1ea0cn.gif

Not as bad as it was yesterday/the day before. Matthew's actually managed to somewhat rein it in the past 12-16 hours or so.

[floridasun78]

if this south Jamaica later tonight that mean their data wrong on models runs it look like old models are right show it by Jamaica i going what notice last few loops

[Dean4Storms]

The ECM did well to the point where it has started moving more WNW than due North. I'd be more concerned about the delay of this getting out of the Carib. Sea and into the Bahamas track. The longer this takes getting out of the Carib. Sea the more likely the forecasts 4-5 days out are to change. The atmosphere above 25N isn't sitting up there waiting on Mathew, it is in constant change so if this doesn't turn more Northerly and start gaining some latitude there is a good possibility the track gets adjusted out 4-5 days time.