ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

eye looks to be clearing out on IR

[Hurrilurker]

eye looks to be clearing out on IR

Yep, last few frames looks clear and symmetric, some re-strengthening likely.

[ozonepete]

Looks stronger.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure about the same. 943 is

[1900hurricane]

The CDO sure has gotten small.

[Kazmit]

150mph at 8pm?

[CrazyC83]

Recon suggests winds have come down. Only support an intensity of 100-105 kt. But there is a lot of area not yet sampled.

[Aric Dunn]

150mph at 8pm?

130 to 135.

[tolakram]

latest IR loop. Snagged on 75W

[bg1]

It should loop again and drift North according to NHC track but if it continues WNW that tells you the ridge is stronger than they thought and winning.

It certainly looks to me like it has dipped a bit SW recently. A start of another loop?

[Alyono]

almost looks as if there is some mid level shear getting to this. The outflow that was present earlier to the west is not as well defined in recent hours

[ozonepete]

Bizzaro storm. Keeps looking like it's attempting an ERC then the ERC stops or fails to complete. Right now it looks like it made another recovery from an eye contraction and the eye is clearing out again. Very odd case study here.

[Evil Jeremy]

It should loop again and drift North according to NHC track but if it continues WNW that tells you the ridge is stronger than they thought and winning.

It certainly looks to me like it has dipped a bit SW recently. A start of another loop?

That would be it's third loop in the past 24 hours, right? These loops keep impeding significant northward movement.

[terrapintransit]

latest IR loop. Snagged on 75W

That is one mean looking cane!

[tolakram]

It should loop again and drift North according to NHC track but if it continues WNW that tells you the ridge is stronger than they thought and winning.

It certainly looks to me like it has dipped a bit SW recently. A start of another loop?

That would be it's third loop in the past 24 hours, right? These loops keep impeding significant northward movement.

This slower scan IR loop, when sped up, looks strange. Lots of pulsing convection going on.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[sphelps8681]

It should loop again and drift North according to NHC track but if it continues WNW that tells you the ridge is stronger than they thought and winning.

It certainly looks to me like it has dipped a bit SW recently. A start of another loop?

It does indeed.

[chaser1]

Any chance we can start getting model runs for Matthews tumor?

[Happy Pelican]

The ECM did well to the point where it has started moving more WNW than due North. I'd be more concerned about the delay of this getting out of the Carib. Sea and into the Bahamas track. The longer this takes getting out of the Carib. Sea the more likely the forecasts 4-5 days out are to change. The atmosphere above 25N isn't sitting up there waiting on Mathew, it is in constant change so if this doesn't turn more Northerly and start gaining some latitude there is a good possibility the track gets adjusted out 4-5 days time.

Very well said and further supports why models aren't reliable 5+ days out.

[sicktght311]

Here's the thing people seem to always forget when tracking any storm. With either the GFS, or the Euro, you can break up the model forecasts into three segmentsx and it never fails....

5+ days out - models have a tough time nailing down the final track, and things can swing wildly west or east by a few hundred miles when it comes to the final solution, versus the model output. 50% of the time it's actually on to something and sniffing out the bigger picture, the other 50% it's just garbage

4-5 days out - models always seem to lose the storm in this time period And start coming up with crazy Solutions that even themselves out towards the end of this.

3 days and under- models generally come to a consensus and even if there are waffles, or the storm misses Its projected track to a certain degree, the overall trend is there, and the storm will generally end up within 50 miles of that track.

This has happened wity countless hurricanes, and winter storms. Sandy was textbook with this.

So that being said, anyone within the NHC cone in the next 3 days or so, be alert, take it serious, and prepare. Anyone on the east coast of florida, be prepared, but also don't expect the apocalypse. Anyone from North Carolina and northward, pay attention, but don't start putting boards up on your windows because 1 model run almost a week out said so. Worry about that tuesday or wednesday

[RL3AO]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.