ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the thing people seem to always forget when tracking any storm. With either the GFS, or the Euro, you can break up the model forecasts into three segmentsx and it never fails....

5+ days out - models have a tough time nailing down the final track, and things can swing wildly west or east by a few hundred miles when it comes to the final solution, versus the model output

4-5 days out - models always seem to lose the storm in this time period And start coming up with crazy Solutions that even themselves out towards the end of this.

3 days and under- models generally come to a consensus and even if there are waffles, or the storm misses Its projected track to a certain degree, the overall trend is there, and the storm will generally end up within 50 miles of that track.

This has happened wity countless hurricanes, and winter storms. Sandy was textbook with this.

So that being said, anyone within the NHC cone in the next 3 days or so, be alert, take it serious, and prepare. Anyone on the east coast of florida, be prepared, but also don't expect the apocalypse. Anyone from North Carolina and northward, pay attention, but don't start putting boards up on your windows because 1 model run almost a week out said so. Worry about that tuesday or wednesday

unfortunately they have failed this system and multiple this year even with initialization. hell this system especially the last 3 days they could not figure out current motion or strength. .. even at this very moment from the 18z they have the motion wrong and all the models and nhc have had to every advisory adjust to fit the present situation vs it follow the forecast.. so no that is not always the case.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

This is truly a question. Why is there a difference between the Navy's track/map & the NHC? The navy map I saw had just about all of Fl & where I am(Savannah, Ga) inside the cone/shaded area?

[sphelps8681]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

And then what?

[floridasun78]

the guy station i hearing from Jamaica tell people Jamaica wont see eye or wont be close

[floridasun78]

This is truly a question. Why is there a difference between the Navy's track/map & the NHC? The navy map I saw had just about all of Fl & where I am(Savannah, Ga) inside the cone/shaded area?

were saw it map?

[otowntiger]

latest IR loop. Snagged on 75W

Notice to the right the twin blob photobombing in that image! . What a strange phenomenom.

[Ken711]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

Is it because the ridge would weaken or is there another trough coming?

[Happy Pelican]

latest IR loop. Snagged on 75W

Notice to the right the twin blob photobombing in that image! . What a strange phenomenom.

I know it's been mentioned before but you have to wonder if the models are having trouble initializing runs because of the "blob."

[JaxGator]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

I thought it might have been the opposite but in regards to what you said, it wouldn't arrive in time to feel the tug of the Ridge over the Northeast?

[floridasun78]

nhc say 8pm moving nw 3mph

[CrazyC83]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

I thought it might have been the opposite but in regards to what you said, it wouldn't arrive in time to feel the tug of the Ridge over the Northeast?

If it is too slow, that brings the Euro solution into play. Essentially strands Matthew in the Bermuda Triangle until the next trough comes in or the ridge breaks down.

[EquusStorm]

Look at the eye in the last couple of frames there. Wonder if it'll make a run for a secondary peak.

[psyclone]

Stubborn Matthew still wants to rack up longitude...still think this stands a decent chance to shoot the uprights (between Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula)..another thing of note..once again arc clouds could be seen today firing out the western side of the storm. that would seem to imply dry air remains out that way and while it doesn't seem to have inhibited the storm that possibility remains. conversely the eastern side remains juicy and while the convective goiter has shrank from last night's enormous size it remains very much intact. it looks to be an issue not only for Haiti but at least western portions of the DR as well...it may actually expand eastward thanks to orographic enhancement. a very dangerous situation for Hispaniola even east of the threat of high sustained winds.

[JaxGator]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

I thought it might have been the opposite but in regards to what you said, it wouldn't arrive in time to feel the tug of the Ridge over the Northeast?

If it is too slow, that brings the Euro solution into play. Essentially strands Matthew in the Bermuda Triangle until the next trough comes in or the ridge breaks down.

Ok, thank you. Not that it matters or anything but did the Euro have Matthew cross (or almost cross) 75W?

[AdamFirst]

I think the center may be doing another cyclonic loop. Probably means it's about ready to head a proper north.

[hurricanefloyd5]

latest IR loop. Snagged on 75W

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/AxRgxQp.gif[/img]

Notice to the right the twin blob photobombing in that image! . What a strange phenomenom.

I know it's been mentioned before but you have to wonder if the models are having trouble initializing runs because of the "blob."

Looks like it either stalled or trying the westward movement again?!

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... A,16-WPAC-

[Aric Dunn]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

I thought it might have been the opposite but in regards to what you said, it wouldn't arrive in time to feel the tug of the Ridge over the Northeast?

If it is too slow, that brings the Euro solution into play. Essentially strands Matthew in the Bermuda Triangle until the next trough comes in or the ridge breaks down.

right now it slower than both .. and if ti continues then the second trough that its already barely connecting with would miss it... remember the Euro model early yesterday that left it behind and it turned it back south and west? well that still possible.

[1900hurricane]

Recon is reporting a considerable size increase in the eye.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 0:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 23:30:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°26'N 74°59'W (14.4333N 74.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 276 statute miles (444 km) to the SSE (154°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,612m (8,570ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 117° at 108kts (From the ESE at ~ 124.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (30°) from the flight level center at 23:29:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 305° at 3kts (From the NW at 3mph)

*EDIT: oops, that's actually not any different than the last few fixes. Please disregard.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the latest ( Mimic-TPW ) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html we can still clearly observe fairly stout ridging( westerly flow) north of the Hurricane and little to no ( Northerly flow) trough : west of the Hurricane. Current movement is clearly WNW to maybe NW. Although moving slowly.....