ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not putting much faith in the unreliable and inconsistent models for 99L anymore.

Can anyone remember tracking an invest for 10 days before? If so, which one?

[NDG]

I think those SFMR estimates by the NOAA were bad, there is nothing close to those winds reported at the Keys, the highest I have seen is wind gusts close to 30 mph, we better go the flight level winds.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281824
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 08 20160828
181430 2500N 08128W 9715 00357 0113 +257 +231 086026 027 033 000 00
181500 2500N 08127W 9713 00359 0114 +257 +226 089028 028 034 000 00
181530 2500N 08125W 9714 00358 0114 +256 +230 092026 027 032 000 00
181600 2500N 08123W 9715 00357 0114 +256 +227 090025 027 032 000 03
181630 2500N 08121W 9713 00359 0114 +254 +230 090025 026 /// /// 03
181700 2500N 08120W 9716 00355 0114 +253 +229 089025 027 /// /// 03
181730 2500N 08118W 9717 00355 0114 +253 +231 090025 025 /// /// 03
181800 2500N 08116W 9715 00356 0114 +253 +231 092024 025 /// /// 03
181830 2500N 08114W 9720 00355 0115 +253 +228 097025 027 /// /// 03
181900 2500N 08112W 9714 00358 0115 +252 +229 094024 024 /// /// 03
181930 2500N 08111W 9718 00356 0115 +252 +230 097025 025 /// /// 03
182000 2500N 08109W 9714 00358 0116 +252 +232 097023 024 /// /// 03
182030 2500N 08107W 9715 00357 0116 +252 +229 096024 025 /// /// 03
182100 2500N 08105W 9715 00358 0115 +251 +233 095023 023 /// /// 03
182130 2500N 08103W 9715 00358 0115 +252 +233 096024 025 /// /// 03
182200 2500N 08101W 9715 00359 0116 +252 +233 099025 025 /// /// 03
182230 2500N 08100W 9719 00356 0117 +252 +231 098026 026 /// /// 03
182300 2500N 08058W 9717 00358 0116 +253 +231 098026 028 /// /// 03
182330 2500N 08056W 9720 00357 0119 +255 +225 101028 028 /// /// 03
182400 2500N 08054W 9721 00356 0120 +254 +225 102027 028 /// /// 03

[psyclone]

While no one is paying attention Euro is trending weaker and more stretched out.

Much weaker. All strung out and seems typical of the basin in recent years. So, ECMWF and GFS agree on track and strength now. Probably will not amount to much. You never know though.

I wouldn't bet on it. HWRF has proved itself better on strength once a system has formed and if they name this, they could just as well be right. They've done remarkably well thus far.

But the system hasn't formed yet. And the HWRF has consistently overshot on intensity and has been too quick with development. IIRC it had a cane into the Leewards.

[wxman57]

I suspect there's a weak LLC but as it's detached from the convection it won't qualify for classification as a TD. Remember that the plane found up to 45 mph winds this past week when it was near the eastern Caribbean, along with a closed LLC (or two or three). Needs convection OVER a well-defined LLC to be upgraded.

[Aric Dunn]

I suspect there's a weak LLC but as it's detached from the convection it won't qualify for classification as a TD. Remember that the plane found up to 45 mph winds this past week when it was near the eastern Caribbean, along with a closed LLC (or two or three). Needs convection OVER a well-defined LLC to be upgraded.

That is not always the case.. as long as convection keep re firing then it meets the definition and in this case it is. also nhc will upgrade during higher potential threats and close to land.

[gatorcane]

it appears convection is building closer to the LLC

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like a LLC is currently under that convection blow up happening now. Can see low level clouds spinning around that area now. Looks like it is becoming the dominate center.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... height=550

[Aric Dunn]

and then again it could be near 23.9n 81.4w or there are multiple..

[RL3AO]

Are we sure that center isn't about to barrel into Cuba from the NE?

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KWBC 281834
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20160828
182430 2500N 08052W 9715 00359 0119 +253 +225 103027 028 /// /// 03
182500 2500N 08051W 9723 00356 0120 +253 +223 108027 028 /// /// 03
182530 2500N 08049W 9715 00359 0118 +251 +228 109026 026 /// /// 03
182600 2500N 08047W 9723 00357 0121 +252 +226 109025 026 /// /// 03
182630 2500N 08045W 9721 00357 0120 +251 +229 113024 025 /// /// 03
182700 2500N 08043W 9720 00358 0121 +252 +227 114025 027 /// /// 03
182730 2500N 08042W 9723 00357 0122 +251 +229 118024 024 /// /// 03
182800 2500N 08040W 9723 00357 0122 +251 +228 117025 027 /// /// 03
182830 2500N 08038W 9723 00356 0122 +250 +229 117025 026 /// /// 03
182900 2500N 08036W 9723 00356 0122 +250 +231 119025 026 /// /// 03
182930 2500N 08034W 9723 00357 0123 +250 +229 121026 027 /// /// 03
183000 2500N 08032W 9723 00359 0124 +249 +230 121026 026 /// /// 03
183030 2500N 08031W 9725 00357 0124 +250 +229 121025 025 /// /// 03
183100 2500N 08029W 9724 00358 0125 +251 +226 120025 026 /// /// 03
183130 2500N 08027W 9723 00359 0125 +249 +231 118023 024 /// /// 03
183200 2459N 08025W 9718 00362 0125 +248 +233 118022 022 /// /// 03
183230 2458N 08024W 9730 00355 0127 +250 +231 120022 023 /// /// 03
183300 2457N 08026W 9731 00353 0127 +250 +231 121024 025 /// /// 03
183330 2456N 08028W 9724 00357 0124 +250 +233 120024 025 /// /// 03
183400 2455N 08029W 9726 00356 0124 +251 +227 124025 026 /// /// 03

[BobHarlem]

Are we sure that center isn't about to barrel into Cuba from the NE?

It probably ventures into "wobble watching" territory (and radar angles) but I'm curious about this as well.

[NDG]

I suspect there's a weak LLC but as it's detached from the convection it won't qualify for classification as a TD. Remember that the plane found up to 45 mph winds this past week when it was near the eastern Caribbean, along with a closed LLC (or two or three). Needs convection OVER a well-defined LLC to be upgraded.

Sorry to disagree with you, convection is much closer to the possible LLC, seems to be reforming closer to the MLC, IMO.

[HurriGuy]

I am convinced the ECMWF has no idea what 99L will do. No run is consistent

[NDG]

Recon is going to approaching from the NE quadrant, they have scratched off their SFMR readings, at least for now.

[tropicwatch]

I suspect there's a weak LLC but as it's detached from the convection it won't qualify for classification as a TD. Remember that the plane found up to 45 mph winds this past week when it was near the eastern Caribbean, along with a closed LLC (or two or three). Needs convection OVER a well-defined LLC to be upgraded.

Sorry to disagree with you, convection is much closer to the possible LLC, seems to be reforming closer to the MLC, IMO.

I thinks he likes it:) Just kidding wxman57

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the center is the white spot in the middle here 23.8/81.3

[Steve]

Pretty cool look at the Atlantic basin wide with spins at a lot of levels. Someone said a pulse was coming through. A ton of the West Atlantic is spinning. Energy near TX progged by many of the models looks like it would have made a run at TD or at least a well defined surface low with a little more time. 99L is looking solid though recon will tell the rest of the story.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[caneman]

Much weaker. All strung out and seems typical of the basin in recent years. So, ECMWF and GFS agree on track and strength now. Probably will not amount to much. You never know though.

I wouldn't bet on it. HWRF has proved itself better on strength once a system has formed and if they name this, they could just as well be right. They've done remarkably well thus far.

But the system hasn't formed yet. And the HWRF has consistently overshot on intensity and has been too quick with development. IIRC it had a cane into the Leewards.

My point is that should it get named now, in my mind it's been the most accurate thus far. Im not trusting anything the euro or gfs is saying at this point. At this,point it seems as likely to be strong as it is weak. There is nothing to hang our hats on.

[tropicwatch]

Why are they not reporting surface winds?