ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

That buoy just recorded a 74KT gust. 33 foot seas.

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/jsl_lalo-animated.gif[img] What on earth is that blob doing?

I keep seeing that area of thunderstorm east of Matthew.

I have seen areas of thunderstorms east of hurricanes. I wonder what causes them.

If there was a landfalling hurricane like Matthew, the thunderstorm east of the hurricane would be a second hit.

1900hurricane had a good explanation in Matthew's case:

Looks like some active convection in a confluent band. We're probably getting some extra convergence on the east side due to the low level trades moving faster than Matthew and running into the system.

[rickybobby]

There's a NASCAR race in North Carolina this Saturday. Looks like it could be a washout.

[AutoPenalti]

Something tells me those west shifts aren't over...

[txwatcher91]

It looks like on IR you can finally see the larger eye with an intense band of convection surrounding it and the old one possibly collapsing. If that's the case then EWRC might be finished up by noon tomorrow. Would be a worst case scenario for Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

[Bocadude85]

Something tells me those west shifts aren't over...

Maybe a few slight shifts..I don't see this getting any farther west then Grand Bahama Island and even that far west may be stretching it.

[Alyono]

clear secondary wind maximum for the first time. EWRC is underway.

Winds may also be down to 100-105 kts. I expect them to increase significantly during the afternoon hours

[txwatcher91]

Latest IR imagery suggest the EWRC is well underway. Also the secondary "blob" of convection is moving off to the NE now which might allow Matthew to grow and strengthen. The bad news is that area is heading right for Haiti and the DR.

[beoumont]

There's a NASCAR race in North Carolina this Saturday. Looks like it could be a washout.

One of those cases when a hurricane actually could save lives. I recall in 1960, during the weekend when Hurricane Donna passed over the whole of the Florida Peninsula, 4 people died in auto accidents. During an average weekend, back then, 11 people usually died on Florida highways. The suspension of normal travel patterns was an "unintended consequence"; so Donna actually saved about 7 lives that weekend.

[AutoPenalti]

I extracted this from the models thread and chaser made a really interesting point.

Okay, well this is a bit interesting and something that I think i'll take a look at a bit more closely as compared to tonights GFS 0Z run. As Alonyo mentioned a short while ago regarding the large trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest and Upper Plains, here is how the NAM projects this trough at 48 hours (click link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

Now, fast forward to 72 hr.'s. What was a negativly tilted trough axis, has very quickly turned into a positive tilted trough axis (link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

The mid level low over Montana seems to pull up and slowly NE. Meanwhile, the trough simply becomes broader and covering the western 2/3's of the CONUS, as new energy spills into the trough from the Pacific. Meanwhile it appears to me that increased ridging builds in from the W. Atlantic and also to the north of Matthew at this point. One can see the storm seemingly tracking along the N. Coast of Cuba and seemingly moving NW to a point over W. Andros Island in 84 hours and a much more threatening trajectory for S. Florida than the GFS or UK model. Oh, and before some begin throwing popcorn at their computer monitors, this has less to do with buying into a NAM hurricane forecast, as simply stating the fluid and evolving conditions that might well affect the storms forward motion.

Current steering:

[stormhunter7]

Guess we can say she's in the eyewall now, if not in coc?

[SouthFLTropics]

Guess we can she's in the eyewall now, if not in coc?

Very cool observation...looks to be tracking directly over that buoy.

[chaser1]

Any bouy's in the path of Matthew's tumor??

[stormhunter7]

per new 2am advisory... buoy is about 4-7 miles to east of center.

[SouthernBreeze]

Well, Matt moved .2 degrees N in the past 3 hrs to 14.9 N. A crawl, but he's moving!

[stormhunter7]

bouy had a pressure on about 958 over an 2 hour ago... so if data can get out and online soon. we may see 940's, and 100+mph winds? 33ft seas is pretty crazy every 12 seconds

[stormhunter7]

Can we call that a direct hit?



by the way buoy reported a low pressure of 28.25 (955mb) with a 64 kts ene wind at the same time, hour before last.

[stormhunter7]

as i posted new data just went online. wow! direct hit!

wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 27.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.0 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 75 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.91 in (945mb!)
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.13 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.2 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 40.8 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST

[1900hurricane]

Made it all the way down to 944.8 mb.

[stormhunter7]

based on 2am pkg. they didnt have the new buoy data in time for pkg. lol

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058 reported peak sustained winds
of 78 mph (126 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) during the
past hour.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches). NOAA
buoy 42058 recently reported a pressure of 957 mb (28.25 inches).