ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

[stormhunter7]

btw, you can see northly shear is changing direction and backing off over 99l and actually going back to the north, which will begin to vent 99l i think. Shear is changing now i think.

[artist]

Nice, Rail Dawg. Thanks for posting. They just closed off a circulation, recon, that is.

This video is a view of Invest 99L from 38,000 ft about 120 miles west of Invest 99L.

It was taken at 1pm EST today the 28th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bdn5ckaegsafxrd/IMG_0121.MOV

I'm learning how to post videos here.

You could see the storms being sheared from it looks like the south.

Any thoughts or opinions appreciated!

Chuck

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282004
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 18 20160828
195430 2353N 08204W 9770 00285 0089 +264 +239 039012 013 019 000 00
195500 2352N 08203W 9772 00282 0088 +264 +237 030012 013 019 000 00
195530 2351N 08201W 9770 00284 0088 +262 +238 031012 013 018 000 00
195600 2350N 08159W 9770 00284 0088 +264 +234 034013 013 019 000 00
195630 2349N 08157W 9771 00283 0087 +265 +231 032012 013 019 000 00
195700 2349N 08156W 9771 00283 0087 +264 +233 026010 011 018 000 00
195730 2348N 08154W 9772 00283 0087 +264 +233 023008 009 017 000 00
195800 2348N 08152W 9773 00283 0088 +263 +236 021007 007 017 000 03
195830 2347N 08150W 9770 00285 0089 +262 +241 020008 008 018 000 00
195900 2347N 08148W 9772 00285 0090 +262 +242 020008 008 019 000 00
195930 2347N 08146W 9770 00289 0090 +261 +242 029006 007 016 000 03
200000 2346N 08144W 9770 00287 0091 +262 +241 033006 006 018 000 00
200030 2345N 08143W 9773 00285 0091 +262 +241 029003 005 019 000 00
200100 2344N 08141W 9771 00286 0091 +260 +245 225001 003 019 000 00
200130 2343N 08139W 9773 00285 0091 +260 +245 216004 004 021 000 00
200200 2342N 08138W 9772 00286 0093 +255 +243 206007 008 025 001 00
200230 2341N 08136W 9772 00288 0094 +254 +242 194009 011 028 000 00
200300 2340N 08134W 9773 00287 0095 +250 +234 176013 013 027 000 00
200330 2339N 08132W 9774 00285 0094 +251 +224 170014 015 035 001 00
200400 2338N 08131W 9772 00289 0096 +252 +222 165015 016 032 001 00

35 kt SFMR not far from the LLC.

[deltadog03]

Going to do a live Facebook video shortly click my page below and stop by and say hi.

[hohnywx]

What's the strongest a storm that formed IN the Gulf has become?

Just from this link, you have Hurricane Audrey at Cat 4 and Hurricane Alicia at Cat 3

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

[LSU2001]

Thanks FrankP,
found it and dontated
Confirmation number: 1B139117GC5490626.

[GeneratorPower]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

Watches and warnings for who? It's headed out into the gulf for now.

[stormhunter7]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

Well with the live chat they have with NHC, NHC has not issues a special message or advisory yet. Which tells me there going to wait a little longer... how long, idk.

[hipshot]

Let's focus MORE on the actual disturbance 99L and less on what the "blue tag" who agrees with your viewpoint is writing.

As tireman said, the pro meteorologists here are here on their own volition. Meteorologists do not always agree. This isn't news nor is it a reason to call anyone's credentials into question.

Now back to our regular programming ...

I have seen this "blue tag" for pro mets mentioned. Where the heck is it? Sorry for the off topic.

[jlauderdal]

nah, they hit a surface center it appears at 1kft. So we will have much better data now, and we do have west winds. So technically it meets TD classification, but lacks true stroms. NHC may hold for convection to blow up over coc, i think.

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

who would get watches and warnings?

[TheStormExpert]

Latest saved radar loop out of Key West with center just north of the north coast of Cuba.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm sorry but I don't understanding holding this off a TD when we are this closed to land. That's a big risk IMO

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

You have a large majority of gulf coast population that yesterday believes this thing was dead, gone, done. That's a problem.

Watches and warnings for who? It's headed out into the gulf for now.

[Portastorm]

Let's focus MORE on the actual disturbance 99L and less on what the "blue tag" who agrees with your viewpoint is writing.

As tireman said, the pro meteorologists here are here on their own volition. Meteorologists do not always agree. This isn't news nor is it a reason to call anyone's credentials into question.

Now back to our regular programming ...

I have seen this "blue tag" for pro mets mentioned. Where the heck is it? Sorry for the off topic.

In the previous version of this forum, only pro meteorologists had their user name in blue. Admins were orange. Moderators in green. Now the pro mets have bold and deep blue for their username color in this updated forum software.

[Aric Dunn]

they did another quick center pass.. even more proof.. now they will likely check for winds. by the way pressure is lower in this than TD8

[chaser1]

Frank or Chaser1,
Could one of you post the link to the donation page? I cant seem to find it in announcements.
thanks,
tim

Hey Tim, hope this helps (I don't have a clue to provde a direct link to it, but maybe one of the moderators can??)...
But, when you go to the top of this screen there is a link for "Board Index", from there I looked toward the top for Board Announcements. There should already be 5 or 6 threads there but if not simply click on "Board Announcements" and they will open up. From there look for: STORM2K CONTRIBUTIONS AND FINANCIAL UPDATE . When you click on that link you'll see various messages but simply click on any of them with a "Donate" logo (showing credit cards graphics underneith). Hope that helps lol

[LSU2001]

hipshot,
Look under the name on the right side of the page. Pro Mets have the blue tag which says they are a professional meteorologist.
Tim

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon made another pass through a found some pretty light SW winds on the SE side of the circulation. It looks closed to me. It's pretty weak, but I think you could justify calling this a TC now. Let's see if they find stronger winds in the convection off to the east.

Also, shout out to the men and women flying this mission. Flying through convection at 975 mb is not easy.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, since watches and warnings would be necessary right now. If it is closed off, it should be declared TD 9 (or TS Hermine or Ian).

You have a large majority of gulf coast population that yesterday believes this thing was dead, gone, done. That's a problem.

Watches and warnings for who? It's headed out into the gulf for now.

The lower Keys and parts of Cuba would likely need a TS Warning now if declared. It is probably too soon for watches up the coast though.

[Frank P]

Currently this system is not a threat to the US anytime soon.. so I'm not sure why they would need to upgrade to a TD if it does not warrant that classification... if it meets the criteria of a TD then is should be upgrade regardless of location, and if not, then no upgrade.. looks like a TD to me but the NHC is the best in the world at what they do, rightfully so, they will make the call one way or another...