ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
144
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:meriland23 wrote:I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...
I can tell you which one has been more consistent run to run and that's the GFS. It's had minor shifts left and right but no major flip flopping like the Euro has been doing. It seems to spit out a different 5 to 10 day track every run.
Agreed, GFS has been more in line with the west tandems whereas the Euro seems to switch between east and west.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I hope the euro is right I live in ft lauderdale, but this run has a completely different upper air pattern over the US at 144
than the last run.Does not give much confidence in it.
than the last run.Does not give much confidence in it.
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HurricaneFrances04
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
OTS 168. Doesn't even come close
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:meriland23 wrote:I am wondering who is the more reliable of the two thus far, GFS or Euro in terms of this storm...
I can tell you which one has been more consistent run to run and that's the GFS. It's had minor shifts left and right but no major flip flopping like the Euro has been doing. It seems to spit out a different 5 to 10 day track every run.
Agreed, GFS has been more in line with the west tandems whereas the Euro seems to switch between east and west.
True, but it isn't as if the Euro is creating a phantom low to its East - it actually exists and is spinning right now. I can't actually believe that the end game decider in this whole drama might actually be a krappy, disorganized tropical wave.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This run is very similar to the Friday 00z Euro run, maybe the 12z was a fluke but that remains to be seen. The consistency has not been great.
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Personally I think the EURO run is bogus. It's been very flakey and can't make up its mind, as if it's really struggling with the details. I'd definately trust the the GFS over the wishy washy EURO
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CalmBeforeStorm
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GFS doesn't develope that System to the east like the euro. You can see a reflection of this low right from the beginning of the Euro run that erodes the ridge and allows Matt to go more east in the beginning. I'm not buying it at all,
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks like future Nicole leads the way.
Yeah trust the woman to save the day
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1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The entire northern hemisphere gets real blocky by tau 168.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So far today.
GFS = doesn't develop future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge buIlds further west.
Euro = develops future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge errodes.
GFS = doesn't develop future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge buIlds further west.
Euro = develops future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge errodes.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
That looks like a bs run, it develops two lows now? It's been incredibly inconsistent and just because it got some storms right doesn't mean it'll get them all right, there's been plenty of fails too.
We won't know much for days.
We won't know much for days.
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CaliforniaResident
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ConvergenceZone wrote:Personally I think the EURO run is bogus. It's been very flakey and can't make up its mind, as if it's really struggling with the details. I'd definately trust the the GFS over the wishy washy EURO
two words: Sandy and Jauquin
Don't dis the Euro
Last edited by CaliforniaResident on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
sma10 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:
I can tell you which one has been more consistent run to run and that's the GFS. It's had minor shifts left and right but no major flip flopping like the Euro has been doing. It seems to spit out a different 5 to 10 day track every run.
Agreed, GFS has been more in line with the west tandems whereas the Euro seems to switch between east and west.
True, but it isn't as if the Euro is creating a phantom low to its East - it actually exists and is spinning right now. I can't actually believe that the end game decider in this whole drama might actually be a krappy, disorganized tropical wave.
It exists but it is getting sheared to pieces, but who knows
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OntarioEggplant
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
There is just no reason to believe this garbage run of the Euro right now. Especially when it is completely out to lunch compared to every other model.
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Just look at the difference in models.. I am floored..
00z EURO for 00z oct 8
00z GFS for 00z oct 8th
00z EURO for 00z oct 8
00z GFS for 00z oct 8th
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So is it possible, GFS could be correct about track and Euro correct about strength?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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