ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cunxi Huang]

TXNT24 KNES 030613
TCSNTL
A. 14L (MATTHEW)
B. 03/0545Z
C. 14.8N
D. 74.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. NO
EYE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIM

Really? The W doesn't meet the requirement...

[beoumont]

I keep seeing that area of thunderstorm east of Matthew.

I have seen areas of thunderstorms east of hurricanes. I wonder what causes them.

If there was a landfalling hurricane like Matthew, the thunderstorm east of the hurricane would be a second hit.

This hurricane + blob reminds me of some old images of Hurricane Harley from back in the 1940s:

[bob rulz]

The more ragged appearance and weaker intensity is just due to an EWRC right?

[CW0262]

"SPACE LIGHTNING" SHOOTS OUT OF HURRICANE MATTHEW: Hurricane Matthew, currently crossing the Carribean, is not a typical storm. It's one of the most powerful hurricanes of recent years and it has sprites dancing along its cloudtops. Sprites are an exotic form of lightning that shoots up toward the edge of space instead of down toward the ground. Visit Spaceweather.com to see beautiful photos of Hurricane Matthew's "space lightning."

[ozonepete]

Wow. So cool.

[stormhunter7]

last VM had open eyewall on SW side...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 5:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 25
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 4:42:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°48'N 74°57'W (14.8N 74.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 254 statute miles (410 km) to the SSE (151°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,601m (8,533ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 305° at 92kts (From the NW at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 160° to 340° (SSE to NNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 110kts (~ 126.6mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 2:26:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 4:45:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 12kts (From the ESE at 14mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (221°) from the flight level center

[sma10]

Undoubtedly a conversation for another day, but I have a feeling that after Matthew exits stage right next weekend, we'll have some more fun and games the following weekend, this time in the untapped Western Caribbean.

[1900hurricane]

TXNT24 KNES 030613
TCSNTL
A. 14L (MATTHEW)
B. 03/0545Z
C. 14.8N
D. 74.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. NO
EYE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIM

Really? The W doesn't meet the requirement...

[image removed]

I feel like SAB (and JTWC) have been really lenient with the embedded shade lately. Weird.

[Aric Dunn]

well look we have movement... still way behind models.. but its something.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

its unfortunate that buoy could not keep an accurate recording. it missed damn near everything..

[chaser1]

based on 2am pkg. they didnt have the new buoy data in time for pkg. lol

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058 reported peak sustained winds
of 78 mph (126 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) during the
past hour.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches). NOAA
buoy 42058 recently reported a pressure of 957 mb (28.25 inches).

Pretty awesome, but i'd hate to be that dude hanging on to that buoy with one hand, while holding a hand held anemometer with the other! Seriously though, isn't something off with that wind reading? I would have thought well higher sustained AND gusts given the pressure. I mean, that big metal can just went through the eye, right??

[AutoPenalti]

well look we have movement... still way behind models.. but its something.. lol

and still rather slow...

[chaser1]

TXNT24 KNES 030613
TCSNTL
A. 14L (MATTHEW)
B. 03/0545Z
C. 14.8N
D. 74.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. NO
EYE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIM

Really? The W doesn't meet the requirement...

[image removed]

I feel like SAB (and JTWC) have been really lenient with the embedded shade lately. Weird.

They're probably just cutting and pasting, and photoshopping in Matthew's tumor where its Northern eye wall is supposed to be.

[chaser1]

well look we have movement... still way behind models.. but its something.. lol

and still rather slow...

Actually now wobbling east of due north

[ozonepete]

Due north now from the looks of it. Matthew is entering phase 2 of its cycle. It's moving northward and enlarging in size as it merges with the convective cluster to its east. From here the track is pretty straightforward until it starts moving out of the Bahamas in 2 or 3 days. Then we have the next worries about whether it rakes the east coast or turns out to sea.

[1900hurricane]

Pressure at the buoy dropped a little more the past hour, down to 943.5 mb.

[AJC3]

its unfortunate that buoy could not keep an accurate recording. it missed damn near everything..

You'll get a much more accurate eyewall wind reading from a ocean bottom mounted C-MAN such as Frying Pan Shoals than a moored open ocean buoy. The latter will almost *never* give a completely accurate measurement of the peak winds, since it spends half it's time in troughs of 30+ foot waves (see buoy 41010 in Floyd, Irene). Peak sustained winds, and to some degree gusts, will invariably be underdone.

[ozonepete]

Wonder why you are saying the buoy failed, Aric?

[ozonepete]

its unfortunate that buoy could not keep an accurate recording. it missed damn near everything..

You'll get a much more accurate eyewall wind reading from a ocean bottom mounted C-MAN such as Frying Pan Shoals than a moored open ocean buoy. The latter will *never* give a completely accurate measurement of the peak winds, since it spends half it's time in troughs of 30+ foot waves (see buoy 41010 in Floyd, Irene). Peak sustained winds, and to some degree gusts, will invariably be underdone.

Ok thanks, Tony. I'm sure that was what caused Aric's complaint.

[AJC3]

Wonder why you are saying the buoy failed, Aric?

Did it? I just assumed it went into the eye.