ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

It doesn't appear to be any hurry to gain any latitude at all. Those BAM models assumed immediate development, thus the recurve. If it doesn't develop, which appears likely, then it may track west into the Caribbean. I think that's most likely.

I know it's early days yet, but assuming it makes it all the way west into the Caribbean, what's your gut feeling regarding strength by the time it reaches this region? TW, TD, TS or cane?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track latitude is lower than first update.

Location: 9.2°N 23.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[NDG]

Yeah, I was about to post, they lowered the latitude probably based on the latest ASCAT pass.

[NDG]

12z models

[tolakram]

Latest from CIMSS

[srainhoutx]

I suspect this disturbance will continue Westbound across the MDR. Conditions may improve once the tropical disturbance passes 50W and nears the Leeward Islands in about a week.

[cycloneye]

Latest from CIMSS
http://i.imgur.com/Kg0wqt7.gif

They have to fix the location.

[abajan]

Latest from CIMSS
http://i.imgur.com/Kg0wqt7.gif

They have to fix the location.

I'm guessing the surface circulation is actually currently directly south of the Cape Verdes.

[cycloneye]

Don't look at convection to the left as low is around 25W. This is image at 13:45 UTC that does not update.



Image that updates every half an hour.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/765215651749257216

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS slightly more bullish through 120hrs.

[abajan]

The associated convection seems to be racing westward!

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS slightly more bullish through 120hrs.

And looks like it has a weaker ridge as its considerbly more north..

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS quickly on this run.

[Kingarabian]

Weaker through 156 hours. Looks like it's moving over cooler waters.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC turns the system westward around day 5 and has it moving West NE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours:

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z CMC turns the system westward around day 5 and has it moving WNW NE of the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours:

CMC is not handling steering correctly or is it keeping it weaker? Seems to be stronger on the CMC than last run.

[crownweather]

OTS quickly on this run.

GFS model is showing its poleward bias. Looks to me that it turns 98L northwest-northward way too quick. Instead, I think we will probably see a westward track for the time being.

[Siker]

Both the 12z CMC and the 12z UKMET now develop 98L.

[gatorcane]

The associated convection seems to be racing westward!

http://i.imgur.com/Co4K8qi.gif

Yes the convection and mid-level clouds are racing west, but inspection of the floater shows the surface feature is back around 26W and only slowly moving west as ridging is breaking down to the north.

Floater loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12