![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2010/EARL/track.gif)
If we get a strong system I don't see it making it to the US--there's always a west-bias to the models that far out.
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sma10 wrote:Very nice satellite presentation, indeed. But I'm wary; I've watched these waves roll off the African coast for many years and often the convection dies off very quickly. That's what I'm looking for based on the models reluctance to instantly develop this.
It might take a couple/few days, but very likely to develop.
Blinhart wrote:So this one might track like an another monster of the past. Hugo.
chaser1 wrote:Tell ya what I wanna see. Be it a long Caribbean tracker like Hurricane Allen, or an instant recurve, or possibly nothing more than one big squall line that loses all vorticity following a day spent over water... I just WANT my MTV back (wait, wrong era) umm, meant to say - I want my reliable models back!! I want to actually see some "run to run" consistency. I want to live in a world again where the EURO forecasting a major storm was a dead lock to occur. Sure, maybe it might prove slightly stronger or weaker - but not this yo-yo inability to properly gauge large scale synoptic conditions in the 120 hr or less time frame. Certainly not some forecast of imminent development & forecast to be a major 'cane..., only to be followed by its own next run only showing a weak struggling low, then back to a stronger storm on the following run after that.
That all aside, i think 92L WILL form east of 45W and become Ian. Why?? Who knows! Perhaps some wishful reassurance that all is once again right with the world (well, at least the Atlantic anyhow). But this much I know;. If T.D. 8 "poofs", and T.D. 9 continues gasping for gentle air, so help me if 92L tracks west across the Atlantic without ever getting named - I'm cashing this hurricane season in and from here out... am officially on Fall Cold Front Watch!
terrapintransit wrote:Wayyyy to early for any predictions on this one yet. It could go anywhere. Do I sound professional yet?
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