ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4021 Postby Madpoodle » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:34 pm

Nimbus wrote:lowest pressure is 1009(.4)?
No real need for an upgrade at 5PM IMO.



where do they go from 60/80% listed @ 1400?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4022 Postby HurriGuy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:35 pm

To those saying they should not declare it a TD, my argument is to look at TD 8 recon. What makes those observations any better than the what we are getting for 99L??


Image

Here is TD 8

Image

Here is 99L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4023 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:36 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:lowest pressure is 1009(.4)?
No real need for an upgrade at 5PM IMO.

plane put were low at their report pressure of 1009


I've seen depressions with 1010mb before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4024 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:36 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:lowest pressure is 1009(.4)?
No real need for an upgrade at 5PM IMO.

plane put were low at their report pressure of 1009


An upgrade to a TD is not based on need but by scientific observation and data.. if it meets the criteria of a TD, then it will be upgraded.. pressure of 1009 would not prevent an upgrade if it meets required criteria as established by NHC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4025 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:37 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.


Per the National Hurricane Center... oops! Looks like they were using a boilerplate. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4026 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:37 pm

99l need start moving more nw or will go all way west tip cuba 99l close cuba coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon Discussion

#4027 Postby Recurve » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:38 pm

So there was a vortex message -- a center confirmed at 23.8 / 81.7, correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4028 Postby bg1 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:38 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.


Per the National Hurricane Center... oops! Looks like they were using a boilerplate. :D


I just saw that too... :P

They changed it to TD 9.
Last edited by bg1 on Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4029 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:38 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.


Per the National Hurricane Center... oops! Looks like they were using a boilerplate. :D


Corrected below:
 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769997560983543809


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#4030 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:38 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 282034
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 21 20160828
202430 2423N 08112W 9746 00320 0104 +247 +232 136028 029 028 000 00
202500 2422N 08113W 9748 00317 0103 +248 +228 135029 030 030 000 00
202530 2420N 08114W 9745 00319 0102 +249 +230 135028 029 030 000 00
202600 2419N 08115W 9745 00318 0102 +248 +230 136028 028 029 000 00
202630 2417N 08117W 9752 00312 0101 +249 +228 135028 029 029 000 00
202700 2416N 08118W 9746 00315 0100 +248 +224 135029 030 029 000 00
202730 2415N 08119W 9748 00313 0099 +254 +220 133027 028 029 000 00
202800 2413N 08121W 9747 00315 0099 +258 +215 132028 029 029 000 00
202830 2412N 08122W 9747 00314 0099 +255 +210 137029 029 030 000 00
202900 2410N 08123W 9803 00266 0101 +253 +218 138026 026 031 000 00
202930 2409N 08124W 9803 00265 0101 +248 +225 134025 026 031 000 00
203000 2408N 08126W 9801 00269 0103 +243 +233 131023 026 030 000 00
203030 2406N 08127W 9804 00264 0101 +247 +230 127021 022 026 000 00
203100 2405N 08128W 9801 00267 0101 +245 +238 126019 021 026 000 00
203130 2403N 08129W 9760 00301 0099 +246 +229 125018 019 024 000 00
203200 2402N 08131W 9759 00300 0097 +249 +225 120015 016 023 000 00
203230 2400N 08132W 9754 00307 0098 +245 +227 114019 019 024 000 00
203300 2359N 08133W 9749 00310 0098 +245 +226 110019 020 025 000 03
203330 2357N 08134W 9752 00309 0098 +244 +228 115019 020 025 000 00
203400 2355N 08135W 9747 00311 0097 +245 +232 119018 019 025 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4031 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4032 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT. that why hurr hunter put circle were low at 1009 that mean their found close low
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4033 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm

Finally!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4034 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed (using the U.S. 1 minute average standard) is up to 33 kt (38 mph, 17 m/s). Depressions have a closed circulation...... From the data I have observed off recon I do believe 99L meets that criteria at the present time.. but alias I do not make the call.. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4035 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:39 pm

Good thing I don't make tropical bets...lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4036 Postby slamdaddy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:40 pm

Applause everyone 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4037 Postby rolltide » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:40 pm

LSU2001 wrote:
rolltide wrote:With the llc being further south and heading a little south of due west I wonder how this will effect the eventual track? I think the current models were initiated north of it's current location and the initial direction was west or wnw.


I hate to see a storm entering the gulf with a WSW heading. To me this means a more west eventual landfall than is usually predicted. I don't know how it will affect this storms path but usually when a storm moves through the straits and does the due west or WSW track the north turn seems to always come later than forecast and leads to a more western landfall.
JMHO,
TIm


That's my concern as well.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4038 Postby StormHunter72 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:41 pm

Guess I was wrong lol
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4039 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:41 pm

BOOM.. there ya go!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4040 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:41 pm

Not a surprise this has been upgraded. But I dont think it will do much in the short term anyway. Tuesday seems to be the day...
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