ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[Hammy]

Vortex means upgrade at 5 pm most likely.

Not necessarily, I've seen a VDM numerous times without one, especially if the winds are fairly weak still.

Hammy, every time you try to prove me wrong is a fail, but I respect your opinion

Looks like we're adding another to the list

Should we get better model output now that this has actually formed starting with the 00z-12z runs?

[stormhunter7]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For TD 9

[tarheelprogrammer]

Only getting to 50 MPH....If that were true it would be great for the people in its path and would follow the trends in recent years of storms having a hard time in the western part of the basin.

[cycloneye]

[johngaltfla]

I guess I owe Aric the duty of eating my words. I did not think they would upgrade this mess until it became more symmetric in the morning. C'est la vie. I'll be sending some money to S2K also since I was wrong.

[StormHunter72]

Yep panhandle to big bend.

[SunnyThoughts]

Heh, I wonder how many times that graphic above ( the cone) is gonna change in the next few days?

[johngaltfla]

Only getting to 50 MPH....If that were true it would be great for the people in its path and would follow the trends in recent years of storms having a hard time in the western part of the basin.

Not really.

Have you seen how much rain we've gotten lately? My location has been averaging 1"+ per day...

[JtSmarts]

I hope TD 9 can bring us some much needed rain in SC (no flooding though).

[KWT]

45kts seems reasonable as a first forecast. I think there is a fair chance it gets close to hurricane status at some point.

[LSU2001]

No Kidding about the previous rain and wet soil. A 50 mph tropical storm would topple many trees in my area due to the super saturated soils.
TIm

[tarheelprogrammer]

Only getting to 50 MPH....If that were true it would be great for the people in its path and would follow the trends in recent years of storms having a hard time in the western part of the basin.

Not really.

Have you seen how much rain we've gotten lately? My location has been averaging 1"+ per day...

It should be moving quite fast when it approaches land according to the NWS.

[floridasun78]

that big cone it deep south of Tampa near fort Myer

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282054
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 23 20160828
204430 2329N 08205W 9743 00311 0089 +264 +241 319005 005 018 000 00
204500 2328N 08206W 9742 00312 0090 +264 +240 312004 005 017 000 00
204530 2327N 08208W 9742 00313 0091 +263 +241 304005 005 016 000 00
204600 2326N 08210W 9742 00314 0091 +264 +240 303005 006 015 004 03
204630 2325N 08211W 9744 00311 0090 +264 +240 306006 006 018 001 00
204700 2325N 08213W 9742 00314 0091 +265 +240 321006 006 015 000 00
204730 2325N 08215W 9741 00315 0092 +265 +242 329005 006 016 000 00
204800 2325N 08218W 9742 00314 0092 +267 +236 331006 007 017 000 00
204830 2325N 08220W 9742 00314 0092 +265 +242 336007 008 015 000 00
204900 2325N 08222W 9742 00314 0092 +265 +244 339008 008 015 000 00
204930 2325N 08224W 9743 00312 0090 +265 +244 334008 008 015 000 00
205000 2325N 08226W 9742 00312 0090 +265 +242 339008 008 015 000 00
205030 2325N 08228W 9742 00312 0090 +266 +240 343008 009 015 000 00
205100 2325N 08229W 9742 00312 0090 +266 +240 349009 009 015 000 03
205130 2327N 08229W 9742 00312 0090 +265 +239 343008 009 /// /// 03
205200 2327N 08227W 9749 00306 0090 +266 +238 340009 010 014 000 03
205230 2327N 08225W 9742 00313 0090 +267 +233 332010 011 016 000 00
205300 2327N 08223W 9742 00313 0091 +266 +236 328009 010 017 000 00
205330 2327N 08221W 9742 00313 0091 +266 +234 331009 009 018 000 00
205400 2327N 08219W 9742 00313 0091 +264 +240 326009 009 016 000 00

[Frank P]

And if this one follows the normal pattern on S2K, we will continue to have model wars for the next few days lol

And the always entertaining wobble wars.. where each little wobble has such drastic consequences to track..

[HurricaneBelle]

From the discussion:

Given this uncertainty, the
NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system
peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in
consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF. Needless to
say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than
usual for this system.

The classic hedge-your-bets forecast, likely this either never develops per Euro or blows up per HWRF.

[LSU2001]

I am still doubting that big hook north and east. I will wait for the next few model runs now that we have a center to see what they say.
TIm

[psyclone]

Note the similarity between the landfall forecast for this system and Colin. something else to consider is the potential for long feeder bands east and south of the center extending well away from the storm. we could wind up getting very heavy rains over the peninsula with those stupidly warm gulf waters.

[Nimbus]

Interesting side NOTE, Tampa bay is officially in the 5 day cone had they waited another 24 hours it might have been a closer call.