ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

4-5 days ago the models suggested this could end up around Jacksonville. A half week of weirdness later, Jax in the end is basically the only constant lol. I look forward to tracking this storm over the next several days.

[LSU2001]

Nope, whichever one gets TS winds first gets the name.
Tim

[johngaltfla]

One thing I've observed over the years is that the first forecast track seems more prone to significant revisions...perhaps this is a result of a newly formed storm just getting established and models maybe latching onto a legit center. at any rate interesting times are ahead.

IF the shear relaxes after it gets done partying on Duval St, this sucker could intensify rapidly. Everyone who was in SW Florida in the 04-05 period watches for this with storms that close to us. So to say the next 48 hours will be interesting is the understatement of the year. I think you're right, we have a very interesting 48-72 hours ahead of us.

[HurriGuy]

Don't be surprised if the convection starts to fizzle out throughout the night.

Its proximity to Cuba is still hurting the inflow from the south and while the ULL to the north seems to look worse in appearance on water vapor, it is still going to cause problems.

Once in the Gulf, we will see what the system can do

[GeneratorPower]

TD 8 will become Hermine. TD 9 will become Ian. Regardless of what system reaches Tropical Storm winds first. I think that is how it works.

Nope. That's definitely not how it works.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually of the Global Models the CMC/GEM has been the most consistent the last 2 days of runs taking this northward toward the FL Panhandle. The GFS has trended north and the ECM is all over the place. The UKMET has also had the big swing today. Right now I'd lean toward the FL Panhandle especially if this is deeper than what the latest GFS and ECM predict.

[wxman57]

Told y'all they'd upgrade it today!

Now it's a race - which depression will become Hermine...

[StormChaser75]

We now have TD NINE!!

[HurricaneBelle]

Quite a huge cone for TD 9 at this time- how big do we anticipate the storm to be( size ). Are they zeroed in on big bend area or is the possibility to further down the coast ?

Once again, the cone represents the average error each day out on past NHC track predictions, it's the same size every time for every storm.

[OntarioEggplant]

I think 09L will be Hermine and 08L will be Ian or not be named just based on the way things look and models.

[Frank P]

Told y'all they'd upgrade it today!

Yeah,, I remember precisely that you said it would be upgraded ... just make sure you keep posting your input on this system 57...

[SunnyThoughts]

Told y'all they'd upgrade it today!

Now it's a race - which depression will become Hermine...

LOL! wtg 57! "giggles"

[Blinhart]

Now the NHC is hoping that the trough actually does come down in 4 days or they will have egg on their face, sometimes these models have a phantom trough that screws everything up.

Not saying the NHC is messing up, they have to go with what they have.

[chris_fit]

You sir, need a raise, 57.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't be surprised if the convection starts to fizzle out throughout the night.

Its proximity to Cuba is still hurting the inflow from the south and while the ULL to the north seems to look worse in appearance on water vapor, it is still going to cause problems.

Once in the Gulf, we will see what the system can do

I don't know, some of the warmest water and deepest TPCH in the basin is around Cuba and the western part of Cuba isn't as mountainous, add in the lessening shear I suspect convection goes off overnight!

[Tireman4]

Told y'all they'd upgrade it today!

Yeah,, I remember precisely that you said it would be upgraded ... just make sure you keep posting your input on this system 57...

Well it is he versus the disturbance. Maybe he is one with the disturbance...

[LSU2001]

Yeah Frank,
I seem to vaguely recall something about Tuesday??
Wxman57 we still love you anyway. lol
Tim

[LCfromFL]

4-5 days ago the models suggested this could end up around Jacksonville. A half week of weirdness later, Jax in the end is basically the only constant lol. I look forward to tracking this storm over the next several days.

Evil Jeremy - I was supposed to fly back to Jax (from LAX) on Friday. But I am worried about not getting back before things get too bad (we had 18" of Thomas Creek inside of my house with TS Fay). So I am taking a redeye flight back Thursday night - getting in around 9ish on Friday morning. In Coach. In. A. Middle. Seat. So to all you FL peeps...you're welcome...because I'm flying back early (and in a middle seat in coach - did I mention that?? LOL), TD9 will now end up in Mexico. <--that was sarcasm and NOT a forecast or a wishcast or anything of the sort.

The next several days will certainly be interesting!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282124
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 26 20160828
211430 2346N 08152W 9761 00291 0085 +260 +242 100008 009 017 000 00
211500 2348N 08152W 9760 00293 0087 +261 +242 098013 014 018 000 00
211530 2350N 08152W 9836 00223 0087 +262 +243 111021 026 030 000 00
211600 2352N 08152W 9839 00220 0085 +259 +242 114024 025 032 000 03
211630 2354N 08152W 9835 00224 0088 +259 +238 109022 023 029 000 03
211700 2355N 08151W 9853 00213 0089 +254 +240 108022 023 028 000 00
211730 2357N 08150W 9805 00254 0090 +251 +240 110022 022 027 000 00
211800 2358N 08148W 9802 00257 0091 +250 +235 115022 023 028 000 00
211830 2359N 08147W 9801 00260 0093 +251 +235 113023 023 027 000 00
211900 2400N 08146W 9801 00261 0093 +251 +233 114022 022 028 000 00
211930 2402N 08145W 9801 00262 0095 +249 +232 111020 021 028 000 00
212000 2403N 08143W 9802 00259 0093 +250 +229 120019 020 026 000 00
212030 2404N 08142W 9801 00262 0095 +251 +225 127020 021 025 000 00
212100 2406N 08141W 9801 00262 0096 +251 +219 125022 022 025 000 00
212130 2407N 08139W 9818 00249 0097 +249 +229 127022 023 026 000 00
212200 2409N 08138W 9832 00233 0096 +250 +231 132025 026 028 000 03
212230 2409N 08136W 9831 00236 0096 +256 +220 135026 026 026 000 03
212300 2407N 08135W 9830 00238 0097 +256 +217 138024 025 029 000 03
212330 2406N 08135W 9766 00293 0093 +248 +221 136024 025 030 000 00
212400 2404N 08135W 9638 00409 0093 +244 +211 136025 026 028 000 00

[ronjon]

Told y'all they'd upgrade it today!

Now it's a race - which depression will become Hermine...

Is today Tuesday? Must have taken a long nap.