ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[drezee]

The eye you see is going to gyro around the larger CoC. It will appear to head SW then S then will pop N all of a sudden. It will then stair step NW...

[chris_fit]

The eye you see is going to gyro around the larger CoC. It will appear to head SW then S then will pop N all of a sudden. It will then stair step NW...

This, most likely.

Maybe even a slight eastern illusion too as it swings back around.

[ronjon]

Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.

[Michele B]

Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.

Where do you see that model, can you post a link to it?

TIA

[Michele B]

I notice, too, in the graphic at the top of this page, the "cone" now includes ALL of FL, NOT just the southeastern corner. Def. shifting westward, albeit minutely.

[KWT]

So the 12z GFS goes for a landfall and is basically a re-run of Irene from 2011, expect probably stronger. UKMO is west but as others have said it starts too far south.

[ronjon]

Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.

Where do you see that model, can you post a link to it?

TIA

Go upthread to #4156 and click link for storm 14.

[Lifeless]

The MET's path according to the coordinates given

[Ken711]

UKMET has been far west the past 2 runs though with South Carolina landfalls

12z GFS is a scary solution for North Carolina up into the Northeast. Shades of Irene yet stronger.

Does the 12z GFS show a landfall then continue up the NE coast, or does it continue moving inland?

[Raebie]

Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?

[Raebie]

UKMET has been far west the past 2 runs though with South Carolina landfalls

12z GFS is a scary solution for North Carolina up into the Northeast. Shades of Irene yet stronger.

It would be even scarier if I could see it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The MET's path according to the coordinates given

Looks like last night's GFS...

EURO starts in 30...let's see what it has dreamed up today!

[KWT]

12z GFS landfalls in Cuba around 937mbs, hits the outer banks around a similar strength then scoots up NE for a final landfall of 967mbs.

So 3 big hits predicted by the 12z GFS tonight from Matthew...and way to close to comfort for most of Florida, especially the eastern parts.

[psyclone]

I notice, too, in the graphic at the top of this page, the "cone" now includes ALL of FL, NOT just the southeastern corner. Def. shifting westward, albeit minutely.

the NHC cone only includes a sliver of southeastern fl at this point. Nevertheless, focusing on whether a particular area is in or out of the cone is not the best way to interpret risk....since the cone only represents a 2 out of 3 chance that the center will remain within that region. it says nothing about hazardous weather, which can reside well away from the center, and therefore well outside of the cone. I would encourage you to look at the wind probability graphics. they have consistently depicted a low risk for Florida.

[ConvergenceZone]

Should we even be looking at the GFS? I know that wxman57 and a couple of others have mentioned that the EURO usually wins out in these situations? Thoughts on those comments?

[KWT]

12z HWRF rolling out and also gets this down to 937mbs before Cuba. Rest of the run is rolling out and so we will see what it wants to do with it.

[ronyan]

Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?

Here's the animation of the impacts to the Bahamas and the US East Coast, 78 hr - 240 hr.

http://gph.is/2dzEKS5

[terstorm1012]

Anyone know when (if) continent-wide balloon releases will begin? Like they did for Sandy and Joaquin? that will definitely help with the models.

[Alyono]

NAVGEM obliterates New England

[Raebie]

Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?

Here's the animation of the impacts to the Bahamas and the US East Coast, 78 hr - 240 hr.

http://gph.is/2dzEKS5

Thank you so much. But I'm almost sorry I asked...