ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Live visible. Looks to be improving by the minute.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

also looks like a larger eye is showing up too

[Evil Jeremy]

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

Huge kudos to the NHC for how they have handled the various possible scenarios, with the inconsistency of the models and complex variables in play. Florida has barely been in the cone, but assuming the NHC needs to shift closer to Florida, it won't come out of the blue (officially).

[JaxGator]

How does 98L play into this if at all? I see it's supposed to develop with 40-60% chance.

It's still 40-40% but it would be helpful if it intervened.

[BirdyCin]

Link to Bryan Norcross's latest tweet: "Great point from @NHCDirector. Not all #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles shown on TV, possibility of Florida impacts. #misleading."
https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/782984058850639873

[jdjaguar]

UKMET into Florida!

That, plus the new GFS, plus the most recent ECMWF (and it's "priority" ensembles) is making me very concerned. Stronger ridge, and we're entering the timeframe when models zero in on a solution.

Toss in the UKMET and I too am very concerned.

I need to decide at what point to drive down to Vero Beach, put up hurricane shutters for mom, grab her and drive back to Jax Beach, grab wife and pets, and head west I10.

stress city.

[Raebie]

FWIW, JoeB tweeted that he thinks the GFS is still too fast. Leads me to believe he thinks there will be a west shift on the Euro in the 3-5 range and an east shift 5 days plus. Of course we all know his bias towards the Euro. Unfortunately, he may be right.

So does "too fast" mean he thinks it's too far west? A slower storm would go farther east?

[chris_fit]

Link to Bryan Norcross's latest tweet: "Great point from @NHCDirector. Not all #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles shown on TV, possibility of Florida impacts. #misleading."
https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/782984058850639873

Ugh - maybe I'm just stupid but this tweet is misleading, what the hell does it mean? The fact that ensembles are not shown on TV? Or the fact that some mets say there is a FL threat still, and that is misleading?

[jdjaguar]

FWIW, JoeB tweeted that he thinks the GFS is still too fast. Leads me to believe he thinks there will be a west shift on the Euro in the 3-5 range and an east shift 5 days plus. Of course we all know his bias towards the Euro. Unfortunately, he may be right.

So does "too fast" mean he thinks it's too far west? A slower storm would go farther east?

the opposite.

unfortunately.

[OntarioEggplant]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

[FLLurker32]

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

Are you in Alachua?

Not sure if you are speaking to me or not but I am in Broward County down south.

I'm sorry, I should have specified I was asking gatorcane because of the user name. I'm in Marion.

[sponger]

Link to Bryan Norcross's latest tweet: "Great point from @NHCDirector. Not all #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles shown on TV, possibility of Florida impacts. #misleading."
https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/782984058850639873

Yep, that was pre GFS run. The warning klaxon is sounding at the NHC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Link to Bryan Norcross's latest tweet: "Great point from @NHCDirector. Not all #Matthew tracks from global model ensembles shown on TV, possibility of Florida impacts. #misleading."
https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/782984058850639873

Ugh - maybe I'm just stupid but this tweet is misleading, what the hell does it mean? The fact that ensembles are not shown on TV? Or the fact that some mets say there is a FL threat still, and that is misleading?

Ensembles aren't shown, and the ensembles indicate more of a Florida thread than the operationals. Although that is changing with the 12z operationals shifting towards Florida.

[SeGaBob]

I'm not really concerned yet...interesting nonetheless.
I jinxed us by saying east of Bermuda.

[Nimbus]

UKM quick plot



Tool is here: http://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=2299955

That last point is literally in the middle of my County... I'm not a fan of that one.

This house won't be there after the storm..

[terstorm1012]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

that's what it does.

[Michele B]

UKMET into Florida!

That, plus the new GFS, plus the most recent ECMWF (and it's "priority" ensembles) is making me very concerned. Stronger ridge, and we're entering the timeframe when models zero in on a solution.

Toss in the UKMET and I too am very concerned.

I need to decide at what point to drive down to Vero Beach, put up hurricane shutters for mom, grab her and drive back to Jax Beach, grab wife and pets, and head west I10.

stress city.

Good job watching out for your mom, jd!

I would say you've still got at least 24 hours or more. Maybe more solid tracking showing by then.

[sponger]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

that's what it does.

I agree.

[gatorcane]

Wouldn't be surprised if we get some more shifts west. The NAVGEM which has always showed a recurve well east of Florida is now showing landfall of a significant hurricane into SE Florida on the 12Z. I knew something was up with this quick recurve idea when the NAVGEM and CMC models were forecasting it way in advance. Those models usually don't verify far out.

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

The current method isn't broken. It's been on point so far. The variability and uncertainty is already accounted for. Additionally, NHC has other products that provide more information than the cone. For example, while Florida is only incredibly barely in the cone, much of the FL East coast has a 20%-40% chance of TS winds. This method of delivering information works.

[Michele B]

FWIW, JoeB tweeted that he thinks the GFS is still too fast. Leads me to believe he thinks there will be a west shift on the Euro in the 3-5 range and an east shift 5 days plus. Of course we all know his bias towards the Euro. Unfortunately, he may be right.

So does "too fast" mean he thinks it's too far west? A slower storm would go farther east?

So what does mean? What do you think he's thinking?

Landfall in Vero? Further south? Or north?