ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

They're working on it.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC needs to seriously consider dumping their current method for creating the cone in favor of one that considers variability and uncertainty in modeling.

so its up to the forecaster to draw the cone? the cone will move as the track shifts accordingly, i like the cone as there is no randomness or opinion...if the private forecasters including media want to step out and make a forecast than they can..look, there is plenty of time to get ready in florida, everybody is warned before june 1 in hurricane areas to have supplies and a plan..if you dont then you should

[TJRE]

Goes 16:37 UTC



http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

NASTY

[ThetaE]

Live visible. Looks to be improving by the minute.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

Yup! He's not spitting out (as many) outflow boundaries on the west side anymore (and actually has a western feeder band!), his eye is clearing out, and his once-tumorous eastern blob has been subdued to marginally abnormal thunderstorms. All these point to signs of and intensification, IMO.

[otterlyspicey]

FWIW, JoeB tweeted that he thinks the GFS is still too fast. Leads me to believe he thinks there will be a west shift on the Euro in the 3-5 range and an east shift 5 days plus. Of course we all know his bias towards the Euro. Unfortunately, he may be right.

So does "too fast" mean he thinks it's too far west? A slower storm would go farther east?

So what does mean? What do you think he's thinking?

Landfall in Vero? Further south? Or north?

In theory further west towards Florida in the short term, then more sharply and quickly shoved further east away from the Carolinas long term, I believe.

[jdjaguar]

That, plus the new GFS, plus the most recent ECMWF (and it's "priority" ensembles) is making me very concerned. Stronger ridge, and we're entering the timeframe when models zero in on a solution.

Toss in the UKMET and I too am very concerned.

I need to decide at what point to drive down to Vero Beach, put up hurricane shutters for mom, grab her and drive back to Jax Beach, grab wife and pets, and head west I10.

stress city.

Good job watching out for your mom, jd!

I would say you've still got at least 24 hours or more. Maybe more solid tracking showing by then.

thanks.

she evacuated twice back in 2004 (Jeanne/Frances). But back then JAX was not in the crosshairs as well (and we lived well inland at the time)

I agree on the timeline for decision-making, just is important to be a step ahead of the crowd.

regards.

[birddogsc]

Landfall near Myrtle Beach as depicted in the GFS is a nightmare scenario for SC. Getting traffic out from there is not easy, and only one road supports lane reversal if needed.

[Wakeknight]

I flew out of Sarasota this afternoon and there was a Navy cargo plane that had been relocated from Charleston parked on the tarmac. That may give some indication of where the military believes this storm is heading.

[Raebie]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

[birddogsc]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

Local WX folks here are saying the same. The state is taking it seriously though.

[jlauderdal]

I flew out of Sarasota this afternoon and there was a Navy cargo plane that had been relocated from Charleston parked on the tarmac. That may give some indication of where the military believes this storm is heading.

the navy needs to take alook at the navgem

[ronyan]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

It has been consistently showing a similar speed in the last several runs.

[Michele B]

Toss in the UKMET and I too am very concerned.

I need to decide at what point to drive down to Vero Beach, put up hurricane shutters for mom, grab her and drive back to Jax Beach, grab wife and pets, and head west I10.

stress city.

Good job watching out for your mom, jd!

I would say you've still got at least 24 hours or more. Maybe more solid tracking showing by then.

thanks.

she evacuated twice back in 2004 (Jeanne/Frances). But back then JAX was not in the crosshairs as well (and we lived well inland at the time)

I agree on the timeline for decision-making, just is important to be a step ahead of the crowd.

regards.

Oh, for sure that!

Stepson once evacuated Broward cause his wife didn't want to go through a storm forecast for their area. They boarded their place up and hopped on I-95 and took 12 hours to get across FL line into GA. LOTS of others, bumper to bumper and NO GAS ANYWHERE ALONG THE WAY!

[dukeblue219]

Landfall near Myrtle Beach as depicted in the GFS is a nightmare scenario for SC. Getting traffic out from there is not easy, and only one road supports lane reversal if needed.

On the plus side, this is a slow mover that should allow decent advance-notice (at least for long-lead preparations), and it's October, not August, so the beach-going crowds should be smaller.

[Raebie]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

It has been consistently showing a similar speed in the last several runs.

I think he means in comparison to the Euro.

[HurricaneEric]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

Slower would mean more west in days 3-5 towards Florida.

[Raebie]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

Slower would mean more west in days 3-5 towards Florida.

And then east away from the Carolina coastline?

[ronyan]

From what I've seen there are conflicting opinions on whether slower = OTS.

[psyclone]

Long a promoter of looking at NHC probabilities (ideally trends when the storm is still far away) is the best way to gauge a threat. For Florida folks that threat is definitely going up... Longer term the Carolinas..yikes.

[jlauderdal]

Don't know, but our local met is saying he's not buying the GFS because it's too fast. And if I'm reading his take right, he thinks the track is too far west. Trying to get clarification.

so the tv met is only buying the euro..fair enough but you know better to not too hang one model at this point..this is the biggest euro run in a very long time for the united states..less than an hour to go...a major hurricane with a shot to hit the usa in heavily populated areas..havent seen this in a very long time