ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Sat down to eat dinner and scanned the tv channels. Fox News' lead story started with "Millions in Florida are preparing...". Millions?

They showed obvious stock footage of people buying water at a grocery store, and mentioned that one of the models was showing TD9 moving towards central/northern Florida and then CURVE back down again! The story ended with this: "be prepared, be prepared, be prepared". Yep three times in a row.

Oops, posted this before I saw the post above - sorry mods.

that wrong by fox news that news channel i dont watch not affect whole state their making look whole state getting hurr if become hurr

[BucMan2]

Aric- when do we start taking the HWRF seriously- it's solution has been out there for over 2 days I believe?

[Nimbus]

Hwrf sub 950 at landfall.

What does the Hwrf do with the ULL offshore SE of Texas?
Looks like a potential source of shear in the short run, not to mention TD9 is unable to slip into her convection nighty with that ULL over Georgia dogging her west with shear.

[artist]

000 URNT12 KWBC 282237 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992016
A. 28/22:16:10Z
B. 23 deg 29 min N 082 deg 06 min W
C. 1500 ft 764 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 164 deg 19 kt
G. 080 deg 38 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 26 C / 463 m
J. 25 C / 476 m
K. 22 C / 28 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. .01 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 05EEA INVEST OB 18
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT
MAX FL WIND 30 KT 038 / 46 NM 20:26:59Z
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 081 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Aric Dunn]

Hwrf sub 950 at landfall.

yeah but thats with old data before llc. with all the shear I dont see that happening. it cant even gain latitude either.

Its wont change much. Hwrf has been showing this same thing for days. And even its current orginization. 00z might end up being stronger again

[HurriGuy]

Does anyone else get the sense the Cuban mountains have hold of the circulation?

Could open back up if it keeps going WSW.

[Alyono]

It is getting pinched between 2 upper lows. One over the west Gulf that is moving to the east. The second one southwest of TD Eight

[Stormcenter]

Does the HWRF show the current WSW movement?

[whatacane]

which way did he go George? which way? lol nothing written in stone here yet! this thing is on a mission!

[HurriGuy]

Does the HWRF show the current WSW movement?

for the first frame and then WNW

[psyclone]

Aric- when do we start taking the HWRF seriously- it's solution has been out there for over 2 days I believe?

I'm not Aric but I would submit the following: A.) When you see meaningful development, B.) When the NHC starts forecasting substantial strengthening, C.) When other models latch onto a similar scenario.

[Aric Dunn]

Gfdl is much much stronger.. borderline cat 3. Probably 100 ish at landfall a little west .. notice a trend.

[floridasun78]

not much rain south fl their think we were going hammer by rain today was good weekend

[adam0983]

An interesting week ahead us. It is possible that this follows a hurricane Wilma path. Do you think it can come ashore around Naples. Just an opinion

[jlauderdal]

An interesting week ahead us. It is possible that this follows a hurricane Wilma path. Do you think it can come ashore around Naples. Just an opinion

Nope

[Frank2]

Earlier precip almost dissipated except for some weak bands of showers...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=byx

P.S. The TCD did mention one model indictaed TD 9 would dissipate - you never know...

[Rail Dawg]

I'm going to be flying another leg tomorrow just west of TD9.

First thing in the am.

Will try to get another video posted. It's hard to describe but after 30 years of flying around and through these things you start to get a feeling for which ones are going to strengthen, stay the course or lose steam.

Passing 99L just a few miles to the north yesterday (on our way to Punta Cana) you could tell there was a LOT of energy. And then sure enough today it gets classified as a TD.

I was a Pro Met for a long time before becoming an airline pilot. I also have gone into a dozen hurricanes as a chaser.

But listening to all of you is amazing. It's incredible the technology and how you all use it so accurately. I do appreciate the discussion.

I'm impressed!

Again will try to post video tomorrow unless we are IMC (Instrument Meteorological Conditions).

Chuck

[wxman57]

NHC may have upgraded 99L a little too quickly. Perhaps they did it so they could initiate advisories and provide more warning for Florida? Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the NHC operations area. We've been issuing advisories for the past 9 days on it. The last 5 days have been the hardest. Getting easier now. I see TD Eight is getting the crap knocked out of it by shear. Was more of a TD yesterday than now. Ready for a day off. Maybe next weekend...

[GeneratorPower]

I'm going to be flying another leg tomorrow just west of TD9.

First thing in the am.

Will try to get another video posted. It's hard to describe but after 30 years of flying around and through these things you start to get a feeling for which ones are going to strengthen, stay the course or lose steam.

Passing 99L just a few miles to the north yesterday (on our way to Punta Cana) you could tell there was a LOT of energy. And then sure enough today it gets classified as a TD.

I was a Pro Met for a long time before becoming an airline pilot. I also have gone into a dozen hurricanes as a chaser.

But listening to all of you is amazing. It's incredible the technology and how you all use it so accurately. I do appreciate the discussion.

I'm impressed!

Again will try to post video tomorrow unless we are IMC (Instrument Meteorological Conditions).

Chuck

Mods, new tag needed. "Amateur Hurricane Hunter" or something.

[johngaltfla]

Does anyone else get the sense the Cuban mountains have hold of the circulation?

Could open back up if it keeps going WSW.

Nope. Cuban mountains are in the eastern half of the island. In the West, where the storm is at, even in Florida we call those "hills".

It's all on 9 staying out to sea to survive and strengthen.