ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4261 Postby sponger » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:28 pm

Better for Fl this am, worse this afternoon. Still to close for comfort. Maybe the GFS and Euro will find some consistent agreement for several runs they we can have confidence in the forecast track. To many variables and to far out to expect any definitive answers. The NHC has its hands full with the near term track as that will have huge impacts by Monday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4262 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:28 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?


A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.


Thank you. Been fishing all day and just got back in to look at the models. ECMWF makes me feel good but GFS would not be a good one for this area. Is it at all realistic?


Sure, but the strength of the Atlantic ridge is, in turn, dependent upon how much of a mid level reflection there will be in about 5-6 days w/r/t the remnants of the cutoff low currently over the eastern CONUS.

Still a lot of variables in play here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4263 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:30 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_14.gif

Not for nothing, but the model spread is really increasing from north of Cuba onward vs how things looked 24 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4264 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:34 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14.gif

Not for nothing, but the model spread is really increasing from north of Cuba onward vs how things looked 24 hours ago.


Not another model fight... :cry:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4265 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:47 pm

12z UKMET

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4266 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:52 pm

My own experience with plotting models (or computes, as they used to call them) is they work much better when the weather pattern is very predictable, not when it's complex, as we have at the present...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4267 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:02 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:12z UKMET

Image

The 12z UKMET might not be so crazy with it's initialization with this thing moving slowly south for now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4268 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:02 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:12z UKMET

Image


Is that the Ukie that was initialized too far south...it appears to be.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4269 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:34 pm

NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4270 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.


I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.

If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4271 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:45 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.


I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.

If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/


yep, it has been. Quite consistent. We need a massive balloon release to pin this down.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4272 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:50 pm

I know it the NAM and dont follow the actual position.. but the ridging almost never goes away this run and is stronger..

as a result the TC is very very slow compared to 12z..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=193


gulfstream data in it maybe ?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4273 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:52 pm

Thats a lot of ridging.. much different ..

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4274 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Thats a lot of ridging.. much different ..

Image


It also shows a 40 MPh tropical storm lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4275 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:04 pm

The NAM is terrible for Tropical Systems but does do halfway decent for the overall synoptic pattern.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4276 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:08 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:The NAM is terrible for Tropical Systems but does do halfway decent for the overall synoptic pattern.


yep thats only reason I look at it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4277 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:09 pm

I will go with CLP5 right now, since there is nothing out there to influence this system to go anywheres. Let's see what will be happening in the next 36 hours. LMAO.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4278 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:18 pm

Also all the models are trying to say for some strange reason Matthew should be down to a Cat 1 or 2 in the next 36 hours, that is a big problem, because a stronger system will have a totally different path than a weaker system.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4279 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:21 pm

Blinhart wrote:Also all the models are trying to say for some strange reason Matthew should be down to a Cat 1 or 2 in the next 36 hours, that is a big problem, because a stronger system will have a totally different path than a weaker system.


I agree, the models are having a difficult time resolving this issue with Matthew's strength.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4280 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:27 pm

GFS is rolling...here we go!!!
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