ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

weel it hasnt verfied yet but where do you think its going after cuba?

Right to your back door.

Ouch, Ft. Lauderdale.

I live about 10 minutes by the coast.

i would prefer an nhc track be directly over head right now, its not

[sponger]

Recon is suggesting an EWRC is currently underway. A clear secondary wind max was found in the NE quadrant and the wind field has expanded.

Down to 940 mbs on last pass of this Air Force mission.

So it's undergoing an EWRC, yet deepening slightly?

Not a good sign. What are we going to be looking at in 3 days? Cat 3? Cat4? Large Cat 5 bearing down on the East Coast?

[cycloneye]

Last VDM.

URNT12 KNHC 031734
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 03/17:15:00Z
B. 15 deg 49 min N
074 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2583 m
D. 78 kt
E. 228 deg 11 nm
F. 313 deg 99 kt
G. 228 deg 6 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 11 C / 3043 m
J. 15 C / 3054 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1614A MATTHEW OB 27
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT 045 / 13 NM 17:19:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 245 / 6 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 228 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR

[gatorcane]

965 users online this forum right now, think this is a high for 2016.....

[KWT]

I hope people in Fl are beginning to realize the seriousness of the situation. This storm will very likely rival, if not be stronger, than the likes of some of the all-time great Fl storms. It will come in from the Bahamas where it should remain powerful, if not even grow in intensity. It will be larger than Andrew or Charley which were both smallish in size. It will be on the order of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 or the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane or 1928 or even stronger. In any case it will be up there with some of the most infamous storms of all time, and has the potential to be the worse.

That's the definition of pure, unjustified hype.

Its perhaps too early to say that, but when multiple models are

A: showing a 4/5 type hurricane in the Bahamas and
B: showing a real close call for some parts of Florida in many runs now

I wouldn't say its totally unjustified...

I personally think its more a risk upshore to SC/NC BUT it WILL be a powerful system, I think almost certain to be a major hurricane (I know NHC does not show this, but they've been dreadful with this ones intensity...)

[wxman57]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

[Blinhart]

Right to your back door.

Ouch, Ft. Lauderdale.

I live about 10 minutes by the coast.

i would prefer an nhc track be directly over head right now, its not

That is pretty much why I said it was going to Lauderdale, usually ends up 100 to 200 miles West from this far out.

[SunnyThoughts]

posted wrong, sorry

[WPBWeather]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

You still coming to FL later this week??

[WYNweather]

Interesting:
Just got email from FPL Something has got their attention now.
FPL: We are monitoring severe weather

[SunnyThoughts]

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... ic-ir-1-24 zoom in, eye clearing out nicely, looking very ominous.

[Blinhart]

When do you guys think the NHC will start issuing TS Watches for the US?

[Evil Jeremy]

965 users online this forum right now, think this is a high for 2016.....

Probably the most in a few years. Lets see if we can break the record (set by Irene)!

Also, we crossed 500 total pages for Matthew total. I remember Cycloneye predicted when Matthew formed that this storm would break the all-time page total for a storm here. I don't remember what the record was, but seeing how we have another week of tracking this storm, which looks to make a US impact somewhere, we might get there!

[Blinhart]

I think the next advisory will have this at around 925 mb, and winds around 150.

Also they will be stating that the wind fields are expanding. Hurricane force winds will be at least 100 miles out and TS out at least 235 miles.

[jlauderdal]

kill tiime with john morlaes prior to the euro

https://www.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc6

[Evil Jeremy]

When do you guys think the NHC will start issuing TS Watches for the US?

We're probably 36 hours out from when watches would be needed for SFL, if they are needed.

[Raebie]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

OK, seeing YOU say this, now I'm worried.

[KWT]

965 users online this forum right now, think this is a high for 2016.....

Probably the most in a few years. Lets see if we can break the record (set by Irene)!

Also, we crossed 500 total pages for Matthew total. I remember Cycloneye predicted when Matthew formed that this storm would break the all-time page total for a storm here. I don't remember what the record was, but seeing how we have another week of tracking this storm, which looks to make a US impact somewhere, we might get there!

Hurricane Ike was something around 950 pages...so a long way to go till that one is beaten!

[RL3AO]

When do you guys think the NHC will start issuing TS Watches for the US?

If the westward shift materializes in the NHC track, watches may be issued as early as tomorrow morning.

[SFLcane]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

Here we go!!