ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Folks, Stupid question - when you see this comment: "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles" - does that mean hurricane winds total 70 miles across and tropical storm winds total 370 miles across?

Thanks! ...Alan

Not necessarily. Normally, the farthest from the center which the winds extend outward, is on the stronger (right) side of the storm's track. For example, while hurricane force winds of a particular storm may exist as much as 40 miles away from its center on the stronger side, on the weaker side they may only extend 20 miles. That's a total of just 60 miles, not 80.

[ThetaE]

I think the next advisory will have this at around 925 mb, and winds around 150.

Why so strong? Pressure is nowhere near that low, though the winds are very feasible.

[Soonercane]

What am I missing here? This will unfortunately cause significant destruction in Hispanola and the Bahamas, but it should weaken considerably by the time it might possibly impact the U.S right? I mean this is likely to be more of an Ophelia than a Hugo right? Hurricane Arthur might be the worst case scenario here.

[dukeblue219]

I think the next advisory will have this at around 925 mb, and winds around 150.

Based on what, if I may ask? The pressure has been very stable around 940mb, an EWRC may or may not be happening, and recon has not found a lot of Cat 3 surface winds, much less high Cat4. Conditions being what they are, it seems like Matthew is content with a steady-state at the moment.

[miamijaaz]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

Oh oh, if Wxman is saying this, I'm buying water right now. This man knows what he's talking about.

[KWT]

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=s_atlantic-ir-1-24 zoom in, eye clearing out nicely, looking very ominous.

Yep eye is clearing out again, most models suggested strengthening to kick up a gear around this time, taking it down to 930mbs roughly. That is seemingly reasonable enough to me.

[Blinhart]

I think the next advisory will have this at around 925 mb, and winds around 150.

Based on what, if I may ask? The pressure has been very stable around 940mb, an EWRC may or may not be happening, and recon has not found a lot of Cat 3 surface winds, much less high Cat4. Conditions being what they are, it seems like Matthew is content with a steady-state at the moment.

Because after an EWRC the pressure can drop drastically and winds can pick up pretty quickly, so that is what I'm going with.

[KWT]

What am I missing here? This will unfortunately cause significant destruction in Hispanola and the Bahamas, but it should weaken considerably by the time it might possibly impact the U.S right? I mean this is likely to be more of an Ophelia than a Hugo right? Hurricane Arthur might be the worst case scenario here.

Models showing some significant strengthening in the Bahamas region again, and the amount of time it will spend over land (cumulative around 6-9hrs in two bursts) will probably not badly disrupt it. Still looking at a 3/4 IMO for the Carolinas.

[Happy Pelican]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

I know it's early but what would this mean for the Jersey Shore? Hundreds of homes up in the air on cribbing while being lifted, dune systems along many beaches STILL HAVENT BERN REPLENISHED since Sandy and our infrastructure can barely handle a strong thunderstorm in terms of flooding now. Thankfully, we lifted our house but the thought of living in a disaster area again makes me physically ill.

[OntarioEggplant]

So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.

Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.

it presents a huge problem having random cones drawn by different folks causing massive confusion by an already confused public..you can put an nhc track directly over fort lauderdale and there is massive confusion as to what to do and when as hard as the govt and media try to keep it clear...can you imagine having multiple cones out there in the public, yikes..the statistical cone is already dubbed the cone of confusion and its pure science

I think you're underestimating the professionalism of NHC forecasters. The forecast track is already drawn like that, and you can easily introduce a mathematical metric that takes into account the modelimg variability. It can be done without it being this haphazard disastrous thing like you're putting it.

[Evil Jeremy]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

This situation just got a bit more real... You should have a Star Trek "red alert" image to go along with Bones.

[otowntiger]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

So we are still ok in Orlando? I will only get worried when I hear that you have cancelled your vacation to Orlando.

[SouthernBreeze]

Anxiously awaiting Euro run before digging out & dusting off hurricane shutters. Been a while, but if shifted this far W, maybe it'll keep shifting & I wont need them

[Blinhart]

What am I missing here? This will unfortunately cause significant destruction in Hispanola and the Bahamas, but it should weaken considerably by the time it might possibly impact the U.S right? I mean this is likely to be more of an Ophelia than a Hugo right? Hurricane Arthur might be the worst case scenario here.

Yes we are all really worried about the destruction and loss of life in Hispanola, Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica. But most of the posters here are from the US, so we unfortunately talk about the US.

There is really no reason for this system to weaken any, once it gets pass Hispanola and Cuba. There is really no major land masses even with the Bahamas and the water is very warm. So if this system continues moving at a steady slow pace this system could get back up to a strong Cat. 5 before making landfall if it doesn't make land fall until the Carolinas.

[jlauderdal]

Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.

it presents a huge problem having random cones drawn by different folks causing massive confusion by an already confused public..you can put an nhc track directly over fort lauderdale and there is massive confusion as to what to do and when as hard as the govt and media try to keep it clear...can you imagine having multiple cones out there in the public, yikes..the statistical cone is already dubbed the cone of confusion and its pure science

I think you're underestimating the professionalism of NHC forecasters. The forecast track is already drawn like that, and you can easily introduce a mathematical metric that takes into account the modelimg variability. It can be done without it being this haphazard disastrous thing like you're putting it.

they are very professional..so which models would be part of your metric?

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782986876005343232

[Blinhart]

My track has the center passing close enough to the SE U.S. to put TS winds to the coast from Miami through the Carolinas and north to Long Island & Cape Cod. I am not so sure it won't make landfall in NC.

I know it's early but what would this mean for the Jersey Shore? Hundreds of homes up in the air on cribbing while being lifted, dune systems along many beaches STILL HAVENT BERN REPLENISHED since Sandy and our infrastructure can barely handle a strong thunderstorm in terms of flooding now. Thankfully, we lifted our house but the thought of living in a disaster area again makes me physically ill.

Unfortunately it is very possible that the Jersey Shore and Long Island South Shore could have some major damage from this system.

[HurricaneWarning92]

A lot of folks along the Eastern coast of Florida are probably going to think just like you if Matthew ends up hitting or at least getting close enough to cause hurricane winds - DESPITE the NHC warning in every single discussion they have issued that folks in Florida cannot rule out hurricane impacts, folks here are too accustomed to watching storms and hurricanes past by to the east with minimal impact on the FL east coast. This may just be one of those times, the luck runs out...we shall see.

Are you in Alachua?

Not sure if you are speaking to me or not but I am in Broward County down south.

Where in Broward? Same, here too. Pembroke Pines. Just watching this like a hawk!

[SouthFLTropics]

965 users online this forum right now, think this is a high for 2016.....

Probably the most in a few years. Lets see if we can break the record (set by Irene)!

Also, we crossed 500 total pages for Matthew total. I remember Cycloneye predicted when Matthew formed that this storm would break the all-time page total for a storm here. I don't remember what the record was, but seeing how we have another week of tracking this storm, which looks to make a US impact somewhere, we might get there!

If this west trend holds I think we are well on our way to breaking the all time record!!!

[jlauderdal]

JohnMoralesNBC624 secs
Bet Florida isn't just being “grazed” by “cone” at 5. Parts of the state should fall fully in it. If I could hand-draw it I’d include S Fla.