ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
one other issue which models never get right is land interaction and circulations getting "stuck" on mountains slowing them down or even separating the low to mid level circs just to have them reform back.. many times it has happened.
5 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:The NAM is terrible for Tropical Systems but does do halfway decent for the overall synoptic pattern.
Makes some sense being a mesoscale model
0 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:one other issue which models never get right is land interaction and circulations getting "stuck" on mountains slowing them down or even separating the low to mid level circs just to have them reform back.. many times it has happened.
I asked about that a few days ago.. guess we will find out when it traverses eastern Cuba.
1 likes
-
FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1035
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
-
p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:I swear this is like playing the lottery...
Except the winners might get the Shirley Jackson ending
3 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Thats interesting.. at 90 hours.. the trough over the mid west seems to be stalling a digging south but not east allowing the ridge over the east to start building more..
should be interesting..
should be interesting..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
sphelps8681
- Category 2
- Posts: 785
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
JPmia wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.
This looks right over Florida!!!
0 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4059
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
FLpanhandle91 wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100118/gfs_pres_wind_watl_14.png
Furthest east and south it has been in quite a few runs.
What's the ridge doing?
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
jason1912 wrote:Low to the NE seems to be gone on the GFS.
And still the Gfs has Matthew slightly further east on this run
Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
0 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
102hours ridging building in and turn to the nw.. interesting..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4059
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
p1nheadlarry wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:I swear this is like playing the lottery...
Except the winners might get the Shirley Jackson ending
OT: You know believe it or not I actually read that 3 semesters ago for my ENC 1101 course and needless to say I really did enjoy that book.
BTW, ridge is building west now at 120hr. But for whatever reason, Matt shifted east.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
drewschmaltz
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 350
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Matthew needs to get his butt in gear. Time to go north is NOW.
1 likes
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
-
p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
drewschmaltz wrote:Matthew needs to get his butt in gear. Time to go north is NOW.
Matt's gonna do whatever it wants, forecasters stocking up on advil
1 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Intersting how the UKmet may have had the right idea.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10180
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
blp wrote:Intersting how the UKmet may have had the right idea.
Was just thinking same thing...
0 likes
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20035
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20035
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
woops, wrong image.
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests