ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783007846858240000

That's impressive...He's a beast!!!

[RL3AO]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.

Yeah. I don't think they go crazy, but eastern Florida will probably be in the cone. Wouldn't be surprised to see "watches may be necessary on Tuesday" language added.

[TheStormExpert]

One would think that since this is 3-4 days from potential Florida impact or a close call that models would have a perfect idea as to where this is going and how fast this is moving, but I guess not.

Anyone know when we should know for certain what the effects might be here along the East Coast of Florida?

[chaser1]

JohnMoralesNBC624 secs
Bet Florida isn't just being “grazed” by “cone” at 5. Parts of the state should fall fully in it. If I could hand-draw it I’d include S Fla.

It's time to gas up the Genny jlauderdale!!! Fire that puppy up and activate the shield!!!

This sucks lol. Looking absolutley like the threat will be real enough that "if" a sharper west jog occured, it would be too late to properly prepare. I don't think Matthew will hit the Miami area, but there sure will be an awful lot of anxiety in the air as things play out. I'm guessing the storm will move over Andros Island... but at the same time, we are talking about a good size hurricane that could potentially be at least a Cat. 3. I'm seriously concerned about a grazing landfall somewhere between West Palm Beach and Vero though.

[ronyan]

Matthew seems to be having issues with his NE quad on IR. Maybe just from the EWRC though.

[miamijaaz]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.

Yeah. I don't think they go crazy, but eastern Florida will probably be in the cone. Wouldn't be surprised to see "watches may be necessary on Tuesday" language added.

I think their biggest question mark is the Keys. Do you include them or not, given that it takes 2 days or so to fully evacuate the Keys? Because if you don't and the models continue to trend West...

[SouthFLTropics]

Matthew's model runs this afternoon are making life miserable for emergency managers from Florida all the way up through the Carolina's. The headaches he potentially is going to cause make Floyd look like a walk in the park.

[SouthFLTropics]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.

Yeah. I don't think they go crazy, but eastern Florida will probably be in the cone. Wouldn't be surprised to see "watches may be necessary on Tuesday" language added.

I think their biggest question mark is the Keys. Do you include them or not, given that it takes 2 days or so to fully evacuate the Keys? Because if you don't and the models continue to trend West...

At this point I don't think the Keys will be under the gun. In fact, ironically it and SW Florida may be the safest place to evacuate to given the current model trends.

[sma10]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.

Yeah. I don't think they go crazy, but eastern Florida will probably be in the cone. Wouldn't be surprised to see "watches may be necessary on Tuesday" language added.

I'm sure the discussion will be the traditional dry/conservative NHC tone, but frankly, today's shift makes the Florida talk unavoidable. And yes, I imagine they would have to think about raising watches tomorrow morning in order to fit into the 48 hr window (assuming current model trends hold).

Especially hard to ignore is the GFS ensemble - wondering what the Euro ensemble gives us...

[sponger]

Matthew's model runs this afternoon are making life miserable for emergency managers from Florida all the way up through the Carolina's. The headaches he potentially is going to cause make Floyd look like a walk in the park.

Remember how bad the evacuation was? Parking lot from Cocoa to Jax. After Andrew I said I would never stay for a 5, after Floyd I said I would never evacuate during daylight. 2AM is my departure time. It would take a direct from a 4 or 5 to initiate that one.

[jlauderdal]

JohnMoralesNBC624 secs
Bet Florida isn't just being “grazed” by “cone” at 5. Parts of the state should fall fully in it. If I could hand-draw it I’d include S Fla.

It's time to gas up the Genny jlauderdale!!! Fire that puppy up and activate the shield!!!

This sucks lol. Looking absolutley like the threat will be real enough that "if" a sharper west jog occured, it would be too late to properly prepare. I don't think Matthew will hit the Miami area, but there sure will be an awful lot of anxiety in the air as things play out. I'm guessing the storm will move over Andros Island... but at the same time, we are talking about a good size hurricane that could potentially be at least a Cat. 3. I'm seriously concerned about a grazing landfall somewhere between West Palm Beach and Vero though.

i would agree on it north of miami...close enough for real anxiety..will see

[chaser1]

One would think that since this is 3-4 days from potential Florida impact or a close call that models would have a perfect idea as to where this is going and how fast this is moving, but I guess not.

Anyone know when we should know for certain what the effects might be here along the East Coast of Florida?

Yeah... not to sound sarcastic, but late Wed. perhaps. If the storm is moving at 10mph or more, better for everyone and the track should be easier for NHC to pin down. Guidance has suggested that motion will be quick (I'm not seeing that though). A slower moving storm could just as easily jog, loop, or even stall for a few hours. Assuming these models continue to appear as if they'll verify, I dont see how a good chunk of Florida (upper Keys to St. Augustine, or maybe further yet) will not have to be under at least a Hurricane Watch ... issued by tomm. noon at the latest. I think there's a good chance that Miami-Dade, Broward, or the Keys will NOT experience hurricane conditions, but if a Cat 3 or stronger tracks as close as Andros Island, a 20-30 mile westward track adjustment say 12 hours prior to closest point, just wont be enough time for Civil and Personal preparations.

[SouthFLTropics]

Matthew's model runs this afternoon are making life miserable for emergency managers from Florida all the way up through the Carolina's. The headaches he potentially is going to cause make Floyd look like a walk in the park.

Remember how bad the evacuation was? Parking lot from Cocoa to Jax. After Andrew I said I would never stay for a 5, after Floyd I said I would never evacuate during daylight. 2AM is my departure time. It would take a direct from a 4 or 5 to initiate that one.

Agreed...And I've plotted a route out of here that keeps me off of the main highways.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great question RLEA0,

I closed the shutters on the house in Key Largo yesterday. But still have the boat hanging on the Davits, before they close the roads in I need to decide if I go down or not? Any real chance this could come in that far south.

[Michele B]

I think by tomorrow morning we should be expecting TS Watches for the FL coast.

Well, just heard on the radio, local news had the gov on, recorded message saying, "Floridians might want to make sure they had "3 days preps ready, just in case...."

[NWFL56]

Looks to be a wobble if anything.

To be fair most models do have a NNE motion from around this point, so wouldn't shock me if that is actually true motion.

Looks like the blob is finally taking it's final breaths. What an awesome feature it was.

Was there ever an explanation of the blob feature? If so, I missed it. In some of the earlier sat pics, it looked like it had a vorticity of it's own.

[stormchazer]

Evacuated from Charleston, SC for Floyd. 90 mile trip to Columbia, SC, 5 1/2 hours. Make preps early if on coast.

[Nimbus]

Due to the shape of the Florida coastline evacuation is going to be difficult if not impossible. I've sheltered in place rather than try to bug out at the last minute only to run out of gas in gridlock traffic. If Matthew is moving slowly in the Bahamas and there is an NHC forecast keeping the core winds offshore and I lived in a sturdy structure, why take a chance on the road unless you are in a flood prone area?

[JaxGator]

Matthew's model runs this afternoon are making life miserable for emergency managers from Florida all the way up through the Carolina's. The headaches he potentially is going to cause make Floyd look like a walk in the park.

Remember how bad the evacuation was? Parking lot from Cocoa to Jax. After Andrew I said I would never stay for a 5, after Floyd I said I would never evacuate during daylight. 2AM is my departure time. It would take a direct from a 4 or 5 to initiate that one.

Wow, that's big. It was also a parking lot from Jax to Lake City. I was three when my Family and I evacuated. It didn't go well at first but we made it inland as Floyd turned. I hope the emergency managers and everyone else along the East Coast are prepared for this.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, I think the overnight global model runs are going to be the real determining factor here. If they continue to show more of a westward shift, or even stay roughly where they are now, I would imagine we would be under TS Watches in Palm Beach County by 11 a.m. tomorrow, or maybe 5 p.m. at the latest.