ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[jlauderdal]

I feel like I'm back in the 80's sometimes relying on grainy black and white satellite shots and ship reports.

This thing has been forecasted for more than 2 days to turn by now.

If in the am it is sitting still or making it's way west then the models... almost all of them.. were wrong.

Sometimes it's good to go back to the old ways of gut feelings and experience.

We are in nowcast mode until further notice.

[Alyono]

HWRF has shifted significantly east

Of course, it also collapses the storm to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow morning...

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF has shifted significantly east

Of course, it also collapses the storm to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow morning...

Models are a hot mess right now. All this new technology and we have to nowcast 3 days out. Amazing...

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF has shifted significantly east

Of course, it also collapses the storm to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow morning...

That model has gotten on par with the NAM.

[shah83]

This sort of thing makes me paranoid about sekrit hurricane weather controllers own by some black-budget US meteorology group attempting to save the world from more Katrinas...

Nowcasting, indeed.

[SouthFLTropics]

This sort of thing makes me paranoid about sekrit hurricane weather controllers own by some black-budget US meteorology group attempting to save the world from more Katrinas...

Nowcasting, indeed.

I hate to admit but the paranoid, conspiracy theorist part of me has thought that before as well. Let me go put on my tin foil hat!!! I can picture some evil mastermind somewhere with a Dr. Evil laugh while he alters the worlds weather.

[RL3AO]

Yeah the models sure suck. 7 days ago they had a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean that would hit Haiti or Cuba in 9 days. They really messed that up.

[ThetaE]

Models have done well with Matthew in the Caribbean overall, but intensification modeling of Matthew has been very wonky throughout the day today, and honestly I'm having a hard time putting much faith into model solutions right now. Matthew is undergoing some motions (cyclonic loop, stalling, etc.) that models simply can't resolve well, if at all. Until these models can come to grips with the current intensity of Matthew, much less the setup of midlattitude features as he enters the Bahamas, models should be given very low confidence. That isn't to say that what they're currently showing is wrong, but that we simply can't know how accurate it is yet.

[toad strangler]

Yeah the models sure suck. 7 days ago they had a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean that would hit Haiti or Cuba in 9 days. They really messed that up.

#sarcasm lol

[chaser1]

Yeah the models sure suck. 7 days ago they had a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean that would hit Haiti or Cuba in 9 days. They really messed that up.

THAT, is a "keeper". Kinda puts things a little in perspective?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah the models sure suck. 7 days ago they had a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean that would hit Haiti or Cuba in 9 days. They really messed that up.

HWRF predicted to hit every landmark from Cancun to PR. It's not very good.

[Ken711]

HWRF has shifted significantly east

Of course, it also collapses the storm to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow morning...

Minimal hurricane?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

The model is a hybrid and often out performs the other global models.

hope this isn't true, this could turn out bad for a lot of people.

There's a reason most of us have never seen this model before.

And what may that reason be?

[tarheelprogrammer]

hope this isn't true, this could turn out bad for a lot of people.

There's a reason most of us have never seen this model before.

And what may that reason be?

It is not reliable. Just a guess. If it gets the storm path right with Matthew it may be mentioned more.

[chaser1]

Models have done well with Matthew in the Caribbean overall, but intensification modeling of Matthew has been very wonky throughout the day today, and honestly I'm having a hard time putting much faith into model solutions right now. Matthew is undergoing some motions (cyclonic loop, stalling, etc.) that models simply can't resolve well, if at all. Until these models can come to grips with the current intensity of Matthew, much less the setup of midlattitude features as he enters the Bahamas, models should be given very low confidence. That isn't to say that what they're currently showing is wrong, but that we simply can't know how accurate it is yet.

NHC has admittedly stated on many occasions that forecasting technologies regarding intensity woefully lag behind forecasting track. That's not news. Furthermore, how many Cat. 5's do we have legit experience toward understanding RI quite that well?

[Ken711]

Do the models have any difficulty with accuracy with major hurricanes the intensity of Matthew?

[Ken711]

Models have done well with Matthew in the Caribbean overall, but intensification modeling of Matthew has been very wonky throughout the day today, and honestly I'm having a hard time putting much faith into model solutions right now. Matthew is undergoing some motions (cyclonic loop, stalling, etc.) that models simply can't resolve well, if at all. Until these models can come to grips with the current intensity of Matthew, much less the setup of midlattitude features as he enters the Bahamas, models should be given very low confidence. That isn't to say that what they're currently showing is wrong, but that we simply can't know how accurate it is yet.

NHC has admittedly stated on many occasions that forecasting technologies regarding intensity woefully lag behind forecasting track. That's not news. Furthermore, how many Cat. 5's do we have legit experience toward understanding RI quite that well?

Should have read your post before I posted, I was thinking a similar thing based on the shear intensity of Matthew and the models experience with them.

[Alyono]

Models have done well with Matthew in the Caribbean overall, but intensification modeling of Matthew has been very wonky throughout the day today, and honestly I'm having a hard time putting much faith into model solutions right now. Matthew is undergoing some motions (cyclonic loop, stalling, etc.) that models simply can't resolve well, if at all. Until these models can come to grips with the current intensity of Matthew, much less the setup of midlattitude features as he enters the Bahamas, models should be given very low confidence. That isn't to say that what they're currently showing is wrong, but that we simply can't know how accurate it is yet.

NHC has admittedly stated on many occasions that forecasting technologies regarding intensity woefully lag behind forecasting track. That's not news. Furthermore, how many Cat. 5's do we have legit experience toward understanding RI quite that well?

well, this time the issue was NHC. Every global model was SCREAMING at this possibility. So what do they do, they STILL have this as a cat 3 hitting Cuba.

This is human error on their part. Again I ask, how can a hurricane in a low shear environment over water with heat content higher than the WPAC weaken? Just think about that regardless what the LGEM says

[otowntiger]

Yeah the models sure suck. 7 days ago they had a strong hurricane in the central Caribbean that would hit Haiti or Cuba in 9 days. They really messed that up.

Yes indeed. I am amazed at how good they actually are. 9 days ago they were forecasting a powerful hurricane in the central Caribbean when it was just a pouch with just a few whispy clouds several hundred miles inland in Africa.

[sponger]

We are finally faced with a huge issue regarding track forecasts. Time and intensity are crucial so we can no longer accept they are irrelevant or less important than synoptics and the analysis of surrounding steering currents and envirionment.
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