ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Does it make sense to think that if the models can make such a significant shift so quickly in such short order that they could just as quickly shift back or at least begin shifting back gradually?? Any reason to think that can't happen? Also it is certain the shifting west will stop at done point and since the majority of models are still off shore it could be that the storm just gets closer, but not catastrophically close as so many here seem to think. .

[SouthernBreeze]

Just because every model shifted west now, doesn't mean they won't shift back east later. Or they might go more west. Or south. This could end up with Matthew vacationing in Montenegro, who knows anymore. I'm sure the NHC will be patient with moving the cone over. A west shift at 5pm is assured, I could see it being maybe 60ish miles west, enough to get at least the eastern half of the peninsula in the cone. If the model trends hold, a more decent shift at 11pm.

well at least the models have initialized the strength of the current ridging over the western atlantic. its been a huge issue thus far with the models not being able to pin now the synoptic setup and how it would erode the ridge. to weak then we get what we have had for the last few days. so we can at least be fairly confident in over all direction. how much east or west is still the questions as well as the land interaction with the mountains affecting the circ/ getting caught up can slow things down quite a bit.

I was wondering same thing - Im sure E/W wars are not over, but small changes can have big effects from 1 area to another

[Panfan1995]

This appears more and more like Hazel. Do folks in Raleigh need to be concerned over time

[Alyono]

deaths have been reported already in Haiti

[SeGaBob]

I think models will shift east right at the last minute. Tends to happen in this kind of setup...

[Alyono]

As was pointed out, there are a lot of tools available for emergency managers even compared to 2005. They can narrow down evacuations to very small scale areas. Remember, the United States evacuates almost entirely for storm surge. If you aren't in a storm surge threatened area and aren't told to evacuate, then you shouldn't evacuate. Of course exceptions to those in weak buildings apply.

and high rises. Do not want to go through a hurricane in one of those

[sponger]

Does it make sense to think that if the models can make such a significant shift so quickly in such short order that they could just as quickly shift back or at least begin shifting back gradually?? Any reason to think that can't happen? Also it is certain the shifting west will stop at done point and since the majority of models are still off shore it could be that the storm just gets closer, but not catastrophically close as so many here seem to think. .

They can but probably not dramatically. The East forecast was based on a lack of data. Now that the data is in, and we are getting close to 72 hours, we are getting a more reliable solution. Conditions may change, but that will be less likely as the week wears on. Some models are indicating even more aggressive with high and push this to the gulf, so any changes are likely to be farther West. IMHO.

[Michele B]

As was pointed out, there are a lot of tools available for emergency managers even compared to 2005. They can narrow down evacuations to very small scale areas. Remember, the United States evacuates almost entirely for storm surge. If you aren't in a storm surge threatened area and aren't told to evacuate, then you shouldn't evacuate. Of course exceptions to those in weak buildings apply.

Unless you just don't want to deal with 11 days with no electricity! (Charley, 2004)

[WeatherEmperor]

deaths have been reported already in Haiti

Oooh gosh no

I absolutely hate that these people have to suffer like this. So many natural disasters for them


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[RL3AO]

Does it make sense to think that if the models can make such a significant shift so quickly in such short order that they could just as quickly shift back or at least begin shifting back gradually?? Any reason to think that can't happen? Also it is certain the shifting west will stop at done point and since the majority of models are still off shore it could be that the storm just gets closer, but not catastrophically close as so many here seem to think. .

Yes but we're not talking about an eight day forecast anymore for FL and the Carolinas. We're down to 3 to 5 days. There is evidence from soundings (both in Bermuda and from the G-IV flights) that the models have underestimated the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. They seem to be adjusting to this fact.

[toad strangler]

deaths have been reported already in Haiti

Oooh gosh no

I absolutely hate that these people have to suffer like this. So many natural disasters for them


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The only thing worse for them would be if King Kong were real.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783007846858240000




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Matthew is now the longest-lived Cat. 4-5 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean (<=20°N, 75-60°W) on record.
2:16 PM - 3 Oct 2016 · Walnut Creek, CA, United States

[AutoPenalti]

Matthew should be retired after the season is over IMHO.

[otowntiger]

Does it make sense to think that if the models can make such a significant shift so quickly in such short order that they could just as quickly shift back or at least begin shifting back gradually?? Any reason to think that can't happen? Also it is certain the shifting west will stop at done point and since the majority of models are still off shore it could be that the storm just gets closer, but not catastrophically close as so many here seem to think. .

They can but probably not dramatically. The East forecast was based on a lack of data. Now that the data is in, and we are getting close to 72 hours, we are getting a more reliable solution. Conditions may change, but that will be less likely as the week wears on. Some models are indicating even more aggressive with high and push this to the gulf, so any changes are likely to be farther West. IMHO.

Thank for the thoughtful reply. That does make sense, and if true is not very good news for us Floridians. I still tend to be more optimistic in thinking the current model tracks may be about as far west as they get. At least, here's hoping.

[ThetaE]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783007846858240000




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Matthew is now the longest-lived Cat. 4-5 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean (<=20°N, 75-60°W) on record.
2:16 PM - 3 Oct 2016 · Walnut Creek, CA, United States

Well, I suppose there are worse records to have. Still not a comforting sign that it's managed to stay this intense for so long.

[galaxy401]

deaths have been reported already in Haiti

Very concerning since this storm is not making it's closest approach yet. This will take a long time for them. They haven't had a bad storm since Sandy. Hope they were prepared.

[Emmett_Brown]

Bit of a NE jog over the past few satellite frames, I am hoping this is not a trend, hoping this can somehow stay off shore of Haiti, or at worst just nip the extreme W part of the Tiburon. Scary situation down there.

[sponger]

deaths have been reported already in Haiti

Oooh gosh no

I absolutely hate that these people have to suffer like this. So many natural disasters for them


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The only thing worse for them would be if King Kong were real.

That got a laugh! Good luck Haiti. Maybe it time to plant some trees and perhaps install a natural gas electric plant.

[Weatherboy1]

My own two cents on the questions earlier: I'm waiting to see what the overnight model cycle shows before putting up any shutters. There should still be plenty of time to prepare and don't want to waste the effort if I don't have to. But it's obviously a personal choice. As for evacuating, I live in a three year old CBS home and am not on the coast and not in a flood zone. So I would basically stay put for almost anything

[otowntiger]

Does it make sense to think that if the models can make such a significant shift so quickly in such short order that they could just as quickly shift back or at least begin shifting back gradually?? Any reason to think that can't happen? Also it is certain the shifting west will stop at done point and since the majority of models are still off shore it could be that the storm just gets closer, but not catastrophically close as so many here seem to think. .

Yes but we're not talking about an eight day forecast anymore for FL and the Carolinas. We're down to 3 to 5 days. There is evidence from soundings (both in Bermuda and from the G-IV flights) that the models have underestimated the strength of the Bermuda Ridge. They seem to be adjusting to this fact.

Yeah, that does make sense. Just hoping for the best. If they don't swing wildly back east at least I hope they don't come any further west. If so a good many will be bringing Matthew onshore and perhaps even inland enough to give us inlanders headaches too. uggh. Not wanting to see another Charley/Frances/or Jeanne or worse here in Central Florida.