ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[canefan]

I also believe that a stronger storm may potentially impact the actual track it will take.

[Emmett_Brown]

So, the environment looking more favorable, and models for the most part keep this thing in check, only high end TS or low end H. BUT; its going to be sitting over really hot water for 3 days before it makes it's approach to the FL coast. 3 days is a long time for it to strengthen... especially if it moistens up the environment to get rid of the mid level dry air.

[JaxGator]

Jim Cantore didn't mention the recent blow up of convection near or over the center but oh well. It has potential in both the Gulf and Atlantic which might influence other systems coming from the east but too soon to say for sure.

[JaxGator]

He even has his doubts on development in the Gulf while many pro-Mets and NHC say it has a chance and shear is dropping ( but that's him).

[gatorcane]

Looks like it may finally get going. Convection really exploding and moving away from Cuba. Bath water all the way until landfall.

[TropicalSailor]

Looks like it may finally get going. Convection really exploding and moving away from Cuba. Bath water all the way until landfall.

Links to what your viewing please?

[Bhuggs]

Much like John Snow, I know nothing. But I would think the key for intensity would be if this little storm that could can ramp up a bit while it is still in less than ideal conditions today and tomorrow.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[RL3AO]

We're still seeing convection being induced over Cuba which in simple terms is focusing rising motion and pressure falls behind the system instead of over it or ahead of it. Getting away from Cuba may help greatly (which we may already be seeing evidence of.

[tolakram]

live water vapor

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[RL3AO]

I'm actually pretty impressed with the first few visible images. Circulation looks rather healthy.

[caneman]

In checking the water loop it's clear it's out from the influence of the ULL. Further, when you run the loop you can see the convection expanding and blossoming quite rapidly and significantly.

[Aric Dunn]

Wont be too much longer now. Also ridging seems slightly stronger still and may end up a little farther west before turning wnw.

[pcolaman]

Looks very healthy this morning. Time will tell but this just might suprise some people in the next few days.

[slamdaddy]

Based on the official forecast track, TD9 will pass over the lowest oceanic heat content (OHC) in the gulf probably sometime early Tuesday. The 26C isotherm in that particular area is less than 25 meters deep.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0god26.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6240go.jpg

[TropicalSailor]

So my question for the promets or anyone else on here for that matter. What is creating the difference between the 2 models showing a panhandle strike and the other 3 models showing a Tampa area strike? What effect will intensity have on the model? Stronger storm further east or stronger storm more west?

[GCANE]

New tower firing at 23.2N 83.5W
Not bad for this time of day and in relatively stable air.
Could be an indication its now pulling heat out of the ocean.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, TD 9 just may finally get it together now that the cyclone is beginning to pull away from the influences of Cuba. The path is now there for TD 9 to seemingly take advantage of the favorable conditions which some have already pointed out on the previous page. TD 9 is starting already with a.nice convective blowup is this morning near the LLC.

NHC keeps it in line to the models thinking that it will bein the range of a moderately strong TS or minmal hurricane at its strongest at landfall.

But, we have to pay attention because it will not take much at all for this tropical cyclone to potentially.intesify quickly as forecast over those very warm ssts of the GOM before landfall in the next 3-4 days.

As it stands at the moment, the effects will be here in.Jax area as early as Wendesday evening or as late as late Thursday into.early Friday morning. This would depend on the forward later tbis week. I hope it will move through here without much impacts beside heavy rainfall. Hopefully the system is not moving slowly as it gets here which would increase the flood potential.

Colin came through here quickly I and I definitely hope TD 9 will do the same.

[Stormcenter]

Looking forward to see how far west it goes before it makes "the turn" to the north and the northeast.

[JaxGator]

9

Looks like it may finally get going. Convection really exploding and moving away from Cuba. Bath water all the way until landfall.

Links to what your viewing please?

You can look up the "Rainbow Loop". It has satellite loops for certain regions of the basin and you can zoom in. The Gulf and West Atlantic loops are the best ones to see TD 9 with.