ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[sphelps8681]

Who cares what model did what or when or better...last two pages are nothing but model wars and no analysis

It is not about what model did what or when or better it is about which one is more correct. And as far as I am concerned none of them did anything but flip flop and guess.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[Frank2]

Little change to the models as the NHC mentioned in their discussion - here in South Florida we are hoping for the best for everyone...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Basically all the 0z guidance is OTS away from the US. That is very very good.

[NYR__1994]

Looks like the guidance is split between making a left or right turn in the Bahamas. Hopefully even the left turns will get kicked out by something before they get to the coast...

[centuryv58]

That's what Weather Underground said earlier. Still need to watch this one.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO.

Obliviously you just have no idea of the model you need to research before labelling. 'Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO'

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model

The offshore oil and gas industry in Australia's northwest operates in a harsh and remote environment, in which tropical cyclones pose a significant risk to safe and efficient operations. Improved forecasts offer a significant opportunity to mitigate this risk, and to this end we are developing a new tropical cyclone NWP system for the northwest. The new system builds on our experience with the existing operational system ACCESS-TC, but differs from it in being on a larger and fixed domain instead of relocatable, by running twice-daily instead of only when a cyclone has formed, by having higher resolution (4 km grid instead of 11 km), by forecasting to 5 instead of 3 days, and by including a one-way coupled wave model. The system is called ACCESS-TCX, with the X standing for “extended”, and aims to address specific issues around forecast length, tropical cyclogenesis and wave prediction. We have tested various ACCESS model configurations for this purpose over both northern Australia and the northwest Pacific Ocean Atlantic , nested in either the global or regional ACCESS models. Intensity forecasts are substantially better than our existing tropical cyclone model, due to the combination of higher resolution and 4D-Var initialisation. Track forecasts are presently slightly worse, which may indicate that further tuning and calibration of the assimilation is required. We have also found that the system performance is sensitive to model resolution, physics, initial condition and lateral boundary conditions. The introduction of a new dynamical core to the model illustrated forecast sensitivity to the model dynamics, with the newer dynamical core producing stronger TCs. While we have demonstrated that ACCESS-TCX has the potential to provide good TC track and intensity forecasts, development continues to determine the best combination of model dynamics, physics, and data assimilation.

[BobHarlem]

A good many of the models have been pretty consistent with keeping it out to sea (after the Bahamas), mostly only outliers and some ensemble runs moved it over the US (look at plots days back through now), it looks as if it's consolidating east again which seems good for the US. With the NW motion of Matthew being more or less expected, and assuming it passes east of Jamaica things are continuing to look good for Florida. I know it's a bit of a concern north of Cuba for changes, particularly if the ridge builds west, but that just isn't as likely.

[tolakram]

Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO.

Obliviously you just have no idea of the model you need to research before labelling. 'Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO'

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model

I don't think the comment was intended to offend Digital-TC-Chaser but until the ACCESS-TC model is shown to have verifiable reliability it's best to take it for entertainment rather than something to be worried about. Rather than sending us the press release how about some verification for how it's done in past storms? Is there anyplace to look this up? Does it do well with upper air patterns, tracks, intensity?

[Ken711]

Hope this pattern repeats again tomorrow.

[pgoss11]

Hope this pattern repeats again tomorrow.

I think there will be more agreement in the models tomorrow.

[Alyono]

Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO.

Obliviously you just have no idea of the model you need to research before labelling. 'Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO'

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model

The offshore oil and gas industry in Australia's northwest operates in a harsh and remote environment, in which tropical cyclones pose a significant risk to safe and efficient operations. Improved forecasts offer a significant opportunity to mitigate this risk, and to this end we are developing a new tropical cyclone NWP system for the northwest. The new system builds on our experience with the existing operational system ACCESS-TC, but differs from it in being on a larger and fixed domain instead of relocatable, by running twice-daily instead of only when a cyclone has formed, by having higher resolution (4 km grid instead of 11 km), by forecasting to 5 instead of 3 days, and by including a one-way coupled wave model. The system is called ACCESS-TCX, with the X standing for “extended”, and aims to address specific issues around forecast length, tropical cyclogenesis and wave prediction. We have tested various ACCESS model configurations for this purpose over both northern Australia and the northwest Pacific Ocean Atlantic , nested in either the global or regional ACCESS models. Intensity forecasts are substantially better than our existing tropical cyclone model, due to the combination of higher resolution and 4D-Var initialisation. Track forecasts are presently slightly worse, which may indicate that further tuning and calibration of the assimilation is required. We have also found that the system performance is sensitive to model resolution, physics, initial condition and lateral boundary conditions. The introduction of a new dynamical core to the model illustrated forecast sensitivity to the model dynamics, with the newer dynamical core producing stronger TCs. While we have demonstrated that ACCESS-TCX has the potential to provide good TC track and intensity forecasts, development continues to determine the best combination of model dynamics, physics, and data assimilation.

Love that it is 4DVAR.

What is the resolution of the global domain? Am I right to assume that Matthew is being modeled at the global domain resolution and not a higher nested resolution?

Also, are they using explicit convection at 4km?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO.

Obliviously you just have no idea of the model you need to research before labelling. 'Some of these obscure models are for entertainment purposes only IMO'

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model

I don't think the comment was intended to offend Digital-TC-Chaser but until the ACCESS-TC model is shown to have verifiable reliability it's best to take it for entertainment rather than something to be worried about. Rather than sending us the press release how about some verification for how it's done in past storms? Is there anyplace to look this up? Does it do well with upper air patterns, tracks, intensity?

You can find all the information you require on AMS confex, All this info is available online, ignorance is no excuse

[SunnyThoughts]

0Z GFS initialized http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 00200&fh=6

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs starting out a little west of last run

[Kingarabian]

Bit more west @ hr 54 on the 00z GFS

[FLpanhandle91]

Haha. And back west we go!

[tolakram]

Just a tad west of last run. Threading the needle but with that big blob of convection to the east this will be horrible for Haiti.

[toad strangler]

Right over the extreme E tip of Cuba @60 hours. Pretty much the least land interaction between Cuba and Haiti possible.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridging not nearly as strong so far in this run. Probably OTS despite the early westward trend.