ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

Not for certain if the shear maps are true at the moment, but they do indicate that it is moving into a lower shear environment as we speak.

It has shear surrounding 2 of the 4 quads... west and north.. but none in the south. southern half of the storm is looking rather healthy as a result... looks pretty decent ATM, best it has ever looked...

[StormHunter72]

Looks healthy this morning. Hopefully does not become too strong in that warm bath water. Hopefully the west coasts luck has not run out.

[caneman]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

Looks to me that it's out of the shear zone. Convection is expanding and you don't see the blow off cloud tops on water vapor like you did yesterday. I think it's in ramp up phase and wondering if they find a t.s.

[TimeZone]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

The coming days? It only has a couple of days left.

[Dean4Storms]

If it does intensify into a Hurricane with this forecast forward speed increasing it has the potential of taking high winds much further inland across the upper FL Peninsula.

[Frank P]

Not convinced till that thing makes that turn.

On that note...where is the trough that sweeps it up?

this trough off to the north and east possibly...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[Emmett_Brown]

Not convinced till that thing makes that turn.

On that note...where is the trough that sweeps it up?

The trough up in Canada right now, still forming and getting ready to drop south after 48 hours.

[Frank P]

It's not the 5 ft., it how they've been going up with each hour. I'm more curious about wind speed though and if it's not already a t.s.

my opinion is that it is awfully close to TS strength just based on how well it currently looks... won't take much to get there..

[caneman]

The overall cloud coverage has more than doubled in just 6 hours and fIlling in on the northern side.

[tigerz3030]

Northjaxpro and jville peeps, "if" this gets to cat 1 or higher, do you see us majorly effected or do you feel it goes more due north to panhandle. Right now I'm preparing that it will be to us in NE FL by Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Thanks for your continued insight.

[txwatcher91]

You can see what looks like outflow beginning to establish on the eastern and southern quadrants now. Also a good deal of banding in the south and east portions of this system. As it breaks away from land today and tomorrow I expect this will quickly organize. A scenario like the HWRF and GFDL depict with a strong hurricane is possible imo. The worst part would be an intensifying hurricane all the way to landfall. Winds sometimes mix down to the surface better in a strengthening storm vs one that's weakening.

[GCANE]

Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

[setexholmes]

Any chance Texas is still in play here or are we mostly in the clear?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

What effect would that have on 09L?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Next recon leaves at 1730Z/0130PM eastern.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/770265616309772290

[TimeZone]

Well, at least it actually looks like a TD this AM. Let's see if it can continue to organize, or falter again as usual.

[toad strangler]

Not enough images and maps being posted! Step up your game!

[GCANE]

Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

What effect would that have on 09L?

Very likely would see a convective ramp up when it tracks into it.

[AutoPenalti]

Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

What effect would that have on 09L?

A possible RI.