ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4441 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:11 pm

The trend here is that the ridge is stronger every run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4442 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

looking start new cmc taking more west toward Jamaica ok what going with cmc?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100200&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=212
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4443 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

I think it's too fast so the trend is meaningless, but we should know in a day or so. Position is nearly a day ahead for the euro and as wxman97 pointed out this is why the solutions are different.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4444 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

00z GFS... @50 mile W shift through 120 hours... Go figure... :roll:
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4445 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

126hrs, similar location to last run, but upper pattern is different from 18z run
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4446 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

not much change from 18Z maybe a hair west
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4447 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:12 pm

toad strangler wrote:Through 96

Very close

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Too close for a four day run!!! Especially with the current uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4448 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:13 pm

i was going bed now new runs got me saying what up models!!!!!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4449 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:13 pm

Literally identical to 18z in terms of location at 126 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4450 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 pm

Now east of previous run. I'm done for the night. Hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4451 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 pm

Trough faster this run. Should keep it far enough off of the Carolinas to keep hurricane force winds offshore.

Will have to wait and see on New England
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4452 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Literally identical to 18z in terms of location at 126 hours.


Yeah, headed towards the Carolinas it would appear.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4453 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:16 pm

my weather man say track depend if high build faster to west and forecast
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4454 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:18 pm

Let's see how the difference in upper pattern plays in this run :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4455 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:20 pm

Alyono wrote:Trough faster this run. Should keep it far enough off of the Carolinas to keep hurricane force winds offshore.

Will have to wait and see on New England


Matt is also faster than 18z...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4456 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:20 pm

.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4457 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:Funny run. A bit West closer to FL and then East away from SC / NC
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4458 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:27 pm

174 looks like an OTS. Hopefully the upper pattern doesn't get blocky so it won't turn back to new England :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4459 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:27 pm

The UKMET windshield wipering continues

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2016 0 13.2N 73.6W 993 43
1200UTC 02.10.2016 12 14.1N 74.3W 993 47
0000UTC 03.10.2016 24 14.5N 75.2W 990 42
1200UTC 03.10.2016 36 15.6N 75.0W 982 55
0000UTC 04.10.2016 48 17.0N 74.3W 975 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 60 18.9N 73.9W 974 59
0000UTC 05.10.2016 72 20.7N 73.9W 975 62
1200UTC 05.10.2016 84 22.2N 74.4W 975 62
0000UTC 06.10.2016 96 23.6N 75.0W 972 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 108 24.9N 75.7W 965 71
0000UTC 07.10.2016 120 26.4N 75.9W 956 71
1200UTC 07.10.2016 132 27.7N 76.1W 949 72
0000UTC 08.10.2016 144 28.9N 75.9W 944 73
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4460 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:28 pm

.
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